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GFS looks a little south so far!

Both 12z WRFs are hits

Interesting. For ATL area we averaged 45.7 degrees Feb 1-12 which doesn't seem to bad to me, especially after the brutal Jan we had. I guess for Feb 45 average is low?

It's a step in the right direction, which seems to be the case on all modeling so far today. Some have made substantial changes with others only minor, but they all seem to be in the right direction. If we keep going ghru the day and night, we may just have to get WxUSAF to crawl out of bed and change the thread title to PDIII! lol

If it snows 4” I’m getting a tattoo of Roy Orbison.

Are we reeling this one in?

Pretty much everyone wants to hear about the mild up, besides a few trolls and shut-ins

AIFS seems like it was most correct over mid range..although slightly over zealous at times

Well… not “nobody”.

Monmouth/ocean jack. This year is a throwback and hopefully indicative our stretch of ratters and disappointments is changing.

Kind of mild on Icon too. I mean if guidance shows it, clearly it’s not a non-zero chance. I know nobody wants to hear it.

WCS agrees with you. Get a couple of WWBs that don’t stall and a moderate el nino with RONI at least +0.8 and we can break the -PDO that’s been plagueing us for years.

I guess..there’s not much good there for us. Uk is a fair bit from where we’d want it

Bothers me a little since RGEM is a good model, but there's too much other support now to not believe that we're going to see accumulating snow tomorrow night.

yeah...so gee, how's one suppose to think otherwise - huh

I didn't pay attention to the Ukie's last 2 runs, but you can see how it really beefed up qpf to our south and southeast with the 6z run vs 0z.

Glad to be asleep for most of this

Needless to say but all models did not do well with this system.

No model is ever good here at cold chasing precip…it’s probably our most miserable type of setup.

Radar says it's snowing here, but the dry air is eating away, and no flakes have reached the ground yet. Hit -3 earlier this morning.

Fv3 6z to 12z was much improved so I wouldn’t tie that directly to gfs.

Alright @psuhoffman weenie model or no...THIS is an example of what should be able to happen, right? And even the NAM...low got deeper, solution got colder...

I was just gunna post that, but the Rgem did bump qpf north by 20 miles or so fwiw, so I took that as a +.

WB 12Z RRFS. Looks like a move of the low center 25-50 miles west is still possible.