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Why?

Wintry first sunset of the year.

EPS would still set up a nice 2nd half after the thaw and honestly given the cold, snowy December it tracks. But of course we can't underestimate the northern stream either.

This is likely over-done, maybe by a lot. Here is a 30 day Euro Weeklies control map. The Weeklies mean pulls the trough back at the end of January, and I think it relies too much on climatology with that look. Still the mean wasn't overly warm. Even on the mean, the cold punches back during the second week of Feb after a good 10-14 day stretch in January(mean). The control, however, keeps putting the EPO back in the eastern PAC. Again, this is probably too much...but it lets us see something that a washed out mean won't.

how would that help misery? florida is a miserable place. folks had a home there for many years. never could stand it.

The “Bleaklies” (thanks, ColdRain for coming up with that hilarious nickname) are almost the polar opposite of last year for the SE at this time. Related to your mention of the Euro, one “bleak” has gone from this encouraging run just two days ago: To the commode today:

It was too strong with the -NAO and too weak with the Northern stream of the Pacific Jet into the Pacific NW. So this lowered heights more out West which allowed the ridge axis to get pushed further to the east. The big question for mid to late January is exactly where the ridge and trough axis sets up? New run Old run

family dealing with both covid and flu, and daughter getting over unidentified throat infection she had on and off for a month; it took 3 rounds of antibiotics and steroids; she lost her voice too. yet the throat scope with a camera showed hardly anything; all tests were negative and they went after them all, viruses, strep, you name it. i won't mind a few days of warmer conditions so my hands will stop bleeding and i can sleep at night without itching all over from dryness.....then i'll be ready for some more snow, and i don't care what the teleconnections say, so far this winter has snowy written all over it. we'll see.

Beyond mid month the GEFS depicts the EPO ridge taking a positive tilt orientation causing the downstream trough to dig a bit more out west. Not an awful look verbatim as the NA is still favorable. Bottom line is I just cant care much about what any model depicts 15+ days from now.

I still don't trust WB maps. Here's the temp forecast off the Euro site. Cold is way overdone on WB.

This season has especially proven to not be too concerned beyond week 2 or 3, and even then, changes have been happening in day 7 to 10. Just yesterday the punters were out until after mid January, but now we might be getting back into business in 10 days or so.

That is the coolest of the forecast weeks off the Euro site, but still apparently in the normal category for temps and precip.

No real argument from me on their accuracy, but that doesn’t change the fact that they keep trending warmer instead of colder as they did earlier in the fall and early winter.

Speaking of week 3 on the latest Euro Weeklies… Today’s run for week 3 shows a decent general look, below normal temperatures & a good amount of precip.

Weeklies have generally proved to be about worthless, especially beyond week 3. Heck, we keep seeing changes for week 2.

Sounds like you are ready to retire to Florida?

2 out of 3 ain’t bad… Also, @CAPE posted a good look on the GEFS a little earlier for around the 12th.

On this Happy New Year’s Day, I refuse to talk at all about the Bleaklies being almost the polar opposite of last year for the SE at this time. They’re not called “The Bleaklies” for nothing. So, what they’re showing shouldn’t surprise anyone. So, I won’t talk about them. They’re not bad at all though for the NE overall with NN averaged out per the in-house maps. I changed my mind. I’ll talk about one bleak: Jan 12-18 has gone from encouraging just 2 days ago To the commode today:

Gefs still suck by the end of the run unfortunately.

Another generally warmer than yesterday run on the weeklies. Hopefully climo temps, which are favored, will do the trick.

I get it, but December was the coldest December since 2010, had snow showers, snow squall, decent snow event here, measured 4.5 inches. The coldest and snowiest part of the winter may still be ahead.

Clippers are just to occupy us between the dogs lol

0.75" in a couple squalls Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

the problem is we lose half of winter getting there