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Looks like 7.6” reported at MSP as of 7 am

CSU MLP mostly held steady with wind but maybe tailored back the TOR risk just a touch. I'm not entirely shocked - and I've been thinking even with some models showing pre-line cells, that this would be a wind dominated event with some brief QLCS spinnys. Nonetheless - I think SPC is hitting the threat level very well!

Hcubed does have 50-55 EOR and S of 90, but not as wild as NAMs. Ground here was thawed underneath the snow . It never really froze. Ground is somewhat firm especially in sunny areas

Wisdom ^^ What up fella? It's been a while. Welcome to our overanalysis discussion I think we need to rejigger our approach to grading as our world changes. I think of it like a dimmer switch. The earth says 'I'll tilt over this way and turn the lights down for a while, see what you can do with it'. 90 days or so later, the lights ease back on and bubbles of warm and cold struggle as it balances back out. Does a cold one land on your area? This one fired on all cylinders for a while, it delivered for those 90 days. You can make yourself nutty hyper analyzing and get to A-- or whatever. I'm giving it an A. Now it's time to move on to a groundwater maintaining spring where it rains a half inch, two days a week as the world leafs out.

It’s a beautiful morning in Durham, NC. The cherry blossoms are in full bloom at Duke Gardens, and the Duke University Blue Devils are ACC Football and ACC Basketball Champions (men and women). First time this has ever been accomplished in ACC history. What a beautiful day!

had a little thunder this morning as well. Temps hovering right below freezing but should hopefully jump up into the mid/upper 30s shortly.

Freshets…LFG

Sat: Today's record highs include Downtown LA at 92 degrees (previous 90 degrees in 2015), LAX at 88 degrees (previous 86 degrees in 1994), and UCLA at 89 degrees (previous 87 degrees in 2015)

Might have to check this out of its still around tomorrow 3.) How widespread heavy rainfall will be to cause minor flooding of rivers, streams and urban areas along with any ice jams causing issues with flooding. An ice jam on the Millers River in Athol, MA reported and photographed by a SKYWARN Spotter will be monitored for any flood potential if the heaviest rain develops in that area.

Going to wait until 12z models before I do my little write-up for my office. While a ton of people at work (including in management) read my emails - they seldom apply my messaging to their actual decision making - which I don't blame them since I'm a weather weenie. But so far it has burned them a few times (during snow events) when they've closed too late (once people were already at the office) or haven't closed early enough in the afternoon leading to people having 3-5 hour commutes. I've *never* seen them release early for something other than snow...And I'm physically onsite tomorrow until 5:30pm. Great....with no windows too!

Just woke up to see some of the hi-res were showing and I will take. Looks like the Nam is showing a 300mb jet acceleration that enhances lift behind the front: Precip. pops over central Alabama and Mississippi and ride up into eastern TN. I think there's probably more dynamically going on that that too, but I'm just excited to see what happens. Maybe we can get some tasty lapse rates with that March sun as the cold pools rolls through tomorrow PM? We'll see if we can get some good rates, but it has been pretty warm so I'd hedge against road problems in areas with lots of traffic especially. Also, just now logging back in, so I wanted to add sorry for your loss Daniel

The last three winters have all ranked among the 10 warmest in the West: A disproportionate share of top 10 warm winters in the West and nationwide have occurred since 2000: The Great Lakes and Northeast were fortunate to have a cold and snowy (especially in the Northeast) winter. Such winters can still occur, and likely will occur for decades to come, but they have become notably less frequent on a nationwide basis.

Thawing ground and S-SE flow could result in some Phil. I’d like to see some models other than the NAMs ramp it up though.

Urban chasing is tricky. I try to target areas where there's a less traffic but a good road system. Let use north Maryland for example. 70 is good for getting in but not for chasing an actual tornado. I chased out by Thurmont in Carroll County. Good roads, good views, and no traffic mayhem. You don't want to be stuck in traffic with an ef 3 tossing cars and coming at you. Watch for trees. I take my chainsaw just in case I need to cut my way out. Be careful and good luck. Btw. I'm not a met. I'm just nuts about weather lol. I'd join you if I wasn't working.

Round 1 of shoveling I measured 7-8” depending on the spot. 12” storm total definitely still in play.

These always gust 50-55 EOR and especially with elevation. . 60 is magic number for those that want damage

I have no interest in 0 metering. More a storm structure guy.

I do think linear convective systems in our region tend to roll through a bit earlier than even short range models predict. There are exceptions, of course - but with a solid line - it wouldn't shock me to see it bump 1-3 hours earlier as we close.

It was very convenient to be clear most of the night and immediately cloud up at sunrise to lock the cold in. 27.7° now off of a min of 24.7° We do the dews tomorrow. Remaining packs cryin’ for their mama.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0241.html Never heard any thunder myself but the Lakeview, South St Paul, and Lake Elmo obs sites all reported thunderstorm in vicinity around 6 am

If you do, please be careful. Fast storm motions will make this potentially chaotic.

Thinking I might chase tomorrow. Any met want to tell me a good grounding location? I was thinking orange VA

March is the pneumonia month every year. Hold on to your sinuses...

Too cold.

Yeah coming down nice in this secondary heavy right now. 7” over here in Woodbury as of 7 am and I’m guessing MSP is doing at least as well given they reported 5” at midnight. Looks like jackpot zone of 10-15 from Rochester over to Wausau and then a buffer zone of 6-10 up to the southern half of the metro. Bummer for the north side though being so close. AIFS over the past few days was the closest with the placement. Most models showing 4-6” additional today over here so that 12-13 threshold for significant storm still in play for MSP? .