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It seems people don't look at models, and just make their own conclusions/forecasts based on the emotions of others lol

The 12z GFS(so proceed at your own risk) has a monster Alaskan block by around 300. So far(famous last words), the pattern at 500 is moving forward with time.

I suspect that poster is referring to the 2-4 day mild spell when the EPO spike initially occurs. But yeah, it doesn't seem like a permanent shift to mild....the cold is right behind it.

This is pretty good match for day 10 between two OP models, -EPO cold dump, obv going to be a warm up before the front eventually clears, question is what happens after? .

Yes. This is where @dailylurker and I have our home base. Very intense rates for the last 2 hours. We’ve picked up at least a foot since 9 am…located about 10 miles east of Lacona, NY at around 1,400 feet. This is the “main” road.

what in the f* are talking about and where is this coming from

What prophesy? It will snow 3x within the first 6 days of January, then a possible cutter or two before we reload cold and storm chances . And it's December 31st, anything can change post Jan 6..

We’ll have to see…long way off. Lots will change. But a January thaw is common.

Plenty of years had good Decembers followed by cold and dry or mild January's before a backloaded winter. 2002-03. Even 00-01 didn't do much until 3rd week of January after the nye storm. Most years have a break of at least a few weeks

Should be a decent cycle for the spine. And good timing in relation to the holiday for the ski areas.

12z GEFS doesn't contain any hints of further improvement for Sunday, unfortunately - all members suppressed from what I can see. Even with the organization of the storm trending better, there's no way it can turn the corner as depicted. An additional problem is that we don't have much cold to give here, so very little room to shake the suppression and not just end up warm.

Wait…is @jbenedet ‘s prophesy coming true for Jan? Maybe not exactly how he drew it up, but same sensible weather. Winter is quickly becoming my least favorite season.

Decent forecast. Happy New Year ev1!

Unfortunately we have lost the cold in the 2nd week of January. That timing is very poor for the next system which moves through around the start of that week. It’s telling that the models have not hinted at any resurgence of the storm that was depicted a few days ago. The cold has been lost and the NS is too fast and can’t phase with SS so all we get is a weak NS storm at a time when we have warm anomalies. A big let down

For educational use only but here is Scott's climo warm flash out ahead of the -EPO burst... Both are represented here on this D10er ... subject to change but in principle, these players are well-supported/correlated. This would only be chapter 1.... Chapter 2 probably involves this eastern ridge erosion and some sort of at least transient +PNA ... perhaps D14ish... pure speculation but is also a correlated as the extrapolation

Uh the pattern has kind of been great if you like winter weather. One of the coldest December's in 45 years and 165% of normal snowfall through today. I hope the pattern stays the same as December. Like I said in November when folks saw no snow in the future...give me the cold the snow will follow. Keep the faith!

The Pac jet extension is a bit too robust leading to the warm up. There is a ton of heat energy in the Western and SW Pac. The warm up was actually spoken about about 10 days ago, ( although some thought it would not happen since other warm ups have trended less and less over time ) however this time it appears likely it will be warming up ahead of the - EPO/ +TNH pattern. Goes to show you the Pac is King, the current - NAO and the - AO are useless when the Pac does not cooperate.

Delayed, but denied?

The only times I can think of when can kicking actually worked was the big pattern change in late January 2015 and the big pattern change in late January 2021 after a mild month. Aside from that, can kicking has almost never worked. That being said, a cold and snowy December in NYC usually correlates to this entire forum doing well later on in the season. If we don't, then this will indeed be very rare territory. History is almost always on our side after having a cold, snowy december. Hopefully that pans out for us this time as well

Hey I'm digging that 70F high temp on jan-10th though!

Thats what happened with the upcoming pattern in the first 2 weeks. People were calling for a huge storm due to the retrogading block but thats not going to happen. Thats what happened last winter also.

SW US is getting active after having a very mild December. Not sure what that means further east, but something to keep an eye on.

I think we can take 13-14 analog off the table

No, it’s definitely not lol

Yeah rain in International Falls MN isn't a great sign for us