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Marion_NC_WX

June 2013 Pattern and Discussion

64 posts in this topic

SECOND...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL SLY FLOW
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MLCAPE
VALUES (00Z GFS) AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...ADEQUATE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GFS BUFKIT
HODOGRAPHS A LITTLE WORRISOME WITH SFC-1KM HELICITY 150-200 M2/S2
LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO LCL VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000FT
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE ABOVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SUPER CELL OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. CAVEAT TO THIS IS
THAT IF CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSOLATION...NEAR SFC
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED AND LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO
HARD TO GET ROTATION WITHOUT A SFC BOUNDARY OR PRESENCE OF A SFC LOW
CROSSING THE REGION. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN STEADY/STRONG
UPDRAFTS (LEADING TO PRECIP LOADING) WILL RUN THE RISK OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. IF CELLS ABLE TO ACHIEVE ROTATING UPDRAFTS
FOR MORE THAN 10-15 MINUTES.
..CANNOT RULE A WEAK BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO. -WSS/VINCENT

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Has anyone seen the Euro weeklies? Looks like the GFS is hinting at a significant heat wave moving east days 10-16. I don't know if that verifies or not. Almost looks like the heat gets forced east - instead of building in the East.

Also, does anyone have any information on the potential ENSO status for DJF?

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Has anyone seen the Euro weeklies? Looks like the GFS is hinting at a significant heat wave moving east days 10-16. I don't know if that verifies or not. Almost looks like the heat gets forced east - instead of building in the East.

Also, does anyone have any information on the potential ENSO status for DJF?

Brett Anderson posted the last update on them on June 7 and it looks like the SE will stay in a Normal to above average rainfall fron know through the first of July. The latest Euro run looks Normal to me. No real heat wave in sight the next ten days according to that model. Looks like most of the heat will stay in the Rockies through the Mid West. Seems like the GFS has been hinting at a heat wave in the long range from about April on but it never makes it. Kind of like our cold and snow storms this past winter. Long range looks good but never verifies. 

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PDO goes barely positive at 0.08,first time in exactly 3 years.

Also sunspots are way down for June after an active April-May.

 

Just some general observations.

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PDO goes barely positive at 0.08,first time in exactly 3 years.

Also sunspots are way down for June after an active April-May.

 

Just some general observations.

Thats some good news. I have been reading the sunspot activity should be decreasing quite a bit in the next couple of years which may help with blocking in the winter.

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The last few runs of Goofy suggest no clearcut threat of intense heat through the end of June fwiw. Whereas we still have a long way to go, this is at least gives me reason for optimism that we won't see any sig. heat by 6/30. If so, the much wetter than normal soils in Atlanta as well as nearby areas in the SE US would seemingly get some of the credit. KATL not exceeding 91 on two days when the highest 850 hit ~+20 C while skies were mostly sunny was good evidence of that. With much drier soils, those highs likely would have been 95+.

Since 1950, when the highest at KATL didn't exceed 91 by 6/30, the highest during 7/1+ never exceeded 96!

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Despite similar high soil moisture and a smaller urban heat island than KATL, we hit 94 last week. Maybe the geography of the valley tempers the effects of the soil moisture up here.

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Looking at the Euro the same thing that there really looks like no heat wave in sight for the SE. Looks like the active pattern we are in will stick around for the rest of the month with fronts coming through just about every week.

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Looks like the rest of the month will be warm will on and off again rain chances. By the looks of it if the heat works East it will hit North of us into the Northeast instead of blowing right into us. GFS and the Euro are different in the Long Range but I think th eEuro has done a better job of modeling the temps.

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JB says :

GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few days

 

 

I said no such thing.

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JB says : GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few days

JB didn't say anything about the GFS being right with Barry. He only points out things that the Euro gets correct. Euro had never shown any development at all. GFS was on it the entire time. I don't know why he acts like its the greatest model ever.

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Parts of Alaska have had more heat (90 degree) than most of North Carolina this year.

 

It's an exchange program.  Next winter we get all their snow.

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It's an exchange program.  Next winter we get all their snow.

That would be nice :hug:

 

Another wonderful summer day. If only summer was like this all the time.

I will agree with this :D This spring and the start of summer have been nothing short of fantastic  :wub:

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Todays Euro run is even more impressive with the ridge in the West and trough in the East. Would be a great way to end June and start July. Would be below normal temps for most. Wow what a difference a year makes.

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Just got home today from spending 2 weeks down on The Grand Strand...and with the exception of June 12th and 13th, it was almost cool at times down at the beach. Low to mid 80's at most, some days the humidity was up, some days it was down big time. It's usually miserable when I go on vacation, this time around it was excellent.

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