March 2015 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

So, will the rather extreme east-west contrasts continue or change to something different in March? Post your forecasts, as always these should be departures from the 1981-2010 "normals" or averages for 1981-2010, for these nine locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

The time penalties will be the same as previous months, 1% per hour from 06z Sunday March 1st to 18z Monday 2nd, then 2% per month, expiring on the 6th.

 

I have tried to address the problem created by having rather frequent cases of a third to half the field being outside scoring range and getting zero points. This does not entirely distinguish various efforts since somebody could easily get very few points but end up twice as close as others who get zero points. So I have introduced what I call a minimum progression rule, it basically puts a floor under the order of scoring and if your raw score is sub-progression (in the basement in other words) then it is boosted to the trend line. You can still score above that trend line if your raw score would have been higher. By trial and error I have found that this does two useful things -- it eliminates the large number of zero scores in some cases, and it adjusts the scoring concept from absolute error to rank order.

 

Some may like this more, some less. I tried it with the February scores and found that it tended to boost closer forecasts a bit more than those at a distance, with almost all scores rising some amount. Months that are more normal with a range of forecasts on either side, will not need this minimum progression and their scores would not change.

 

If you want to know more about this then visit the February thread and read the posts that so far form a discussion about it. I am certainly going to allow the contest field to guide me on this, as my main objective is to make the contest enjoyable as well as informative.

 

But don't forget to enter March, it is coming up fast and on a weekend, so maybe think about posting on Friday to avoid a penalty on Monday if necessary.

 

(edit _ After some discussion this minimum progression idea was ultimately shelved and the scoring remains on the same dismal basis as before, just a bit of leeway is added (as before) when anomalies exceed 5.0, but it remains rather easy to get blanked if you pick the wrong sign and there's a big anomaly).

 

 

[Mikehobbyst]

DCA -3.6

NYC -6.3 - Top 20 coldest March

BOS -8.9 - Top 20 coldest March

ORD -6.1

ATL +0.5

IAH +2.3

DEN +3.0

PHX +3.5

SEA +2.1

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA -2.0

NYC -2.5

BOS -2.9

ORD -0.9

ATL +1.0

IAH +2.5

DEN +0.5

PHX +2.8

SEA +2.0

[ksammut]

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-3.5___-3.8___-4.0____-4.1____-1.8___-2.6____-3.7____-3.1____-2.4

[Maxim]

DCA: -0.1
NYC: -0.8
BOS: -1.3
ORD: -1.1
ATL: +2.0
IAH: +0.3
DEN: -0.6
PHX: +2.0
SEA: +0.8

[bkviking]

DCA: +0.3

NYC: -1.1

BOS: -1.8

ORD: -1.3

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +0.3

DEN: - 1.4

PHX: -0.4

SEA: -0.2

[AvantHiatus]

DCA: +0.3

NYC: -1.1

BOS: -1.8

ORD: -1.3

ATL: +1.2

IAH: +0.3

DEN: - 1.4

PHX: -0.4

SEA: -0.2

I like this one, makes so much sense going forward. SE ridge may come back slightly yet not reach NYC north.

 

DCA: +0.8

NYC: -0.8

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -1.6

ATL: +1.8

IAH: -0.1

DEN: -0.8

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +0.5

[Rjay]

DCA: -0.8

NYC: -2.7

BOS: -2.7

ORD: -1.2

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +0.2

DEN: -0.9

PHX: -0.1

SEA: -1.1

[wxallannj]

DCA: -1.8
NYC: -2.4
BOS: -2.7
ORD: -1.8
ATL: +0.4
IAH: +0.8
DEN: +0.9
PHX: +1.5
SEA: +2.4   

[bkviking]

I like this one, makes so much sense going forward. SE ridge may come back slightly yet not reach NYC north.

DCA: +0.8

NYC: -0.8

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -1.6

ATL: +1.8

IAH: -0.1

DEN: -0.8

PHX: +0.8

SEA: +0.5

Yea, figured try weighing PNA changes in, and the gut feeling the rubber band snaps the other way a bit also with EPO v the pattern persistence.

Then split difference between the all cold/no pattern change folks (eg Bastardi, WSI), the warmer/pattern change ones (DT, Typhoon Tip) and figure gradient, at least in east. Either way, safe bet March isn't February extreme!

BTW, Roger, thank you for maintaining this contest.

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0       0.5       0.0           -0.5      1.5      1.0          -1.0       -0.5     -1.0 

[Tom]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-0.5     -0.9      -1.1        -1.8      +0.5    +0.4      +0.5      +1.1     +1.2

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

 

-0.3     -1.2      -1.0        -3.4      +2.1    -0.7         -3.8      -1.4     -1.0

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-2.2___-2.4___-2.7____-2.2____-1.1___-2.0____-1.8____-1.5____-1.4

[N. OF PIKE]

DCA -1.8

NYC -2.5

BOS -3.0

ORD -0.9

ATL -0.5

IAH 1.2

DEN -0.5

PHX -2.3

SEA 1.0

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

-1.3      -2.0      -2.3       -2.0      1.5      -0.4        +0.2     +1.3    +0.8

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA: -2.9

NYC: -3.0

BOS: -3.1

ORD: -2.0

ATL: -1.9

IAH: -1.0

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +2.7

SEA: +3.1

[Isotherm]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

-2.3     -2.9      -2.9       -2.1       -0.7     -0.8        +1.6     +2.5   +3.1

[blazess556]

DCA: -2.3
NYC: -2.6
BOS: -2.9
ORD: -1.8
ATL: -1.7
IAH: -0.8
DEN: +1.1
PHX: +2.6
SEA: +3.3

[Roger Smith]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

+2.2 _ +0.3 _ -1.3 __ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +0.3 __ 0.0 __ +4.0 _ +2.0

[WEATHER53]

So, will the rather extreme east-west contrasts continue or change to something different in March? Post your forecasts, as always these should be departures from the 1981-2010 "normals" or averages for 1981-2010, for these nine locations:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

The time penalties will be the same as previous months, 1% per hour from 06z Sunday March 1st to 18z Monday 2nd, then 2% per month, expiring on the 6th.

 

I have tried to address the problem created by having rather frequent cases of a third to half the field being outside scoring range and getting zero points. This does not entirely distinguish various efforts since somebody could easily get very few points but end up twice as close as others who get zero points. So I have introduced what I call a minimum progression rule, it basically puts a floor under the order of scoring and if your raw score is sub-progression (in the basement in other words) then it is boosted to the trend line. You can still score above that trend line if your raw score would have been higher. By trial and error I have found that this does two useful things -- it eliminates the large number of zero scores in some cases, and it adjusts the scoring concept from absolute error to rank order.

 

Some may like this more, some less. I tried it with the February scores and found that it tended to boost closer forecasts a bit more than those at a distance, with almost all scores rising some amount. Months that are more normal with a range of forecasts on either side, will not need this minimum progression and their scores would not change.

 

If you want to know more about this then visit the February thread and read the posts that so far form a discussion about it. I am certainly going to allow the contest field to guide me on this, as my main objective is to make the contest enjoyable as well as informative.

 

But don't forget to enter March, it is coming up fast and on a weekend, so maybe think about posting on Friday to avoid a penalty on Monday if necessary.

DCA:-1.7

NYC:-2.3

BOS:-2.7

ORD:-1.0

ATL:-1.0

IAH:-1.0

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+0.5 ____+0.5 ___-0.5 __ +1.0 ___+0.5  ___+1.0 ______+1.5  ___+1.5 ____+1.5

[Absolute Humidity]

DCA __ -2.9 NYC __ -4.6 BOS ___ - 5.1 ORD __ -1.7 ATL __ -2.1 IAH ____ + 0.9 DEN __ + 1.1 PHX __ + 1.4 SEA + 0.9

[Stebo]

DCA: -3.3
NYC: -3.6
BOS: -3.9
ORD: -3.8
ATL: -2.7
IAH: -1.8
DEN: +2.1
PHX: +3.6
SEA: +3.3

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -2.5

NYC: -2.0

BOS: -2.0

ORD: -3.0

ATL: +1.0

IAD: +1.0

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +1.5

[Roger Smith]

Here's a list of forecasts for March 2015. Over in the February thread you will find all updated scores for the month (post 30) and the annual as well as winter portion of four seasons contests. Also there is an update on the snowfall dates contest, where I am able to declare a winner as BKViking cannot be overtaken no matter what happens now (IAH, ATL and PHX all at "no snow" and holding by contest rules despite a few traces).

 

Table of Forecasts for March 2015

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith __________________+2.2 _+0.3 _--1.3 __ +2.5 _+2.7 _+0.3 ____ 0.0 _+4.0 _+2.0
SD _________________________ +1.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 __ --0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _--1.0
Weatherguy701 _______________ +0.8 _--0.8 _--1.5 __--1.6 _+1.8 _--0.1 ___--0.8 _+0.8 _+0.5
Mallow _______________________+0.5 _+0.5 _--0.5 __+1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5
BKViking _____________________+0.3 _--1.1 _--1.8 __--1.3 _+1.2 _+0.3 ___--1.4 _--0.4 _--0.2

 

Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Maxim _______________________ --0.1 _--0.8 _--1.3 __--1.1 _+2.0 _+0.3 ___--0.6 _+2.0 _+0.8
RodneyS _____________________ --0.3 _--1.2 _--1.0 __--3.4 _+2.1 _--0.7 ___--3.8 _--1.4 _--1.0
Tom _________________________--0.5 _--0.9 _--1.1 __--1.8 _+0.5 _+0.4 ___+0.5 _+1.1 _+1.2
Rjay _________________________--0.8 _--2.7 _--2.7 __--1.2 _+0.8 _+0.2 ___--0.9 _--0.1 _--1.1
Donsutherland.1 _______________ --1.3 _--2.0 _--2.3 __--2.0 _+1.5 _--0.4 ___+0.2 _+1.3 _+0.8
Tenman Johnson _______________--1.7 _--2.3 _--2.7 __--1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0
wxallannj _____________________ --1.8 _--2.4 _--2.7 __--1.8 _+0.4 _+0.8 ___+0.9 _+1.5 _+2.4

 

Consensus ____________________ --1.8 _--2.3 _--2.7 __--1.7 _+0.5 _+0.3 ___+0.4 _+1.5 _+1.1

 

N. of Pike _____________________--1.8 _--2.5 _--3.0 __--0.9 _--0.5 _+1.2 ___--0.5 _--2.3 _+1.0
Damage in Tolland______________ --2.0 _--2.5 _--2.9 __--0.9 _+1.0 _+2.5 ___+0.5 _+2.8 _+2.0
hudsonvalley21 ________________ --2.2 _--2.4 _--2.7 __--2.2 _--1.1 _--2.0 ___--1.8 _--1.5 _--1.4
blazess556 ____________________--2.3 _--2.6 _--2.9 __--1.8 _--1.7 _--0.8 ___+1.1 _+2.6 _+3.3
Isotherm _____________________ --2.3 _--2.9 _--2.9 __--2.1 _--0.7 _--0.8 ___+1.6 _+2.5 _+3.1
wxdude64 _______ (-6%) _______ --2.5 _--2.0 _--2.0 __--3.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5
Midlo Snow Maker ______________ --2.9 _--3.0 _--3.1 __--2.0 _--1.9 _--1.0 ___+1.0 _+2.7 _+3.1
Absolute Humidity __ (-1%) ______ --2.9 _--4.6 _--5.1 __--1.7 _--2.1 _+0.9 ___+1.1 _+1.4 _+0.9
Stebo ___________ (-5%) _______ --3.3 _--3.6 _--3.9 __--3.8 _--2.7 _--1.8 ___+2.1 _+3.6 _+3.3
ksammut _____________________ --3.5 _--3.8 _--4.0 __--4.1 _--1.8 _--2.6 ___--3.7 _--3.1 _--2.4
Mikehobbyst ___________________--3.6 _--6.3 _--8.9 __--6.1 _+0.5 _+2.3 ___+3.0 _+3.5 _+2.1

 

[Roger Smith]

After five days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-5.9 __ -6.7 __ -5.8 __ -13.3 __ +0.8 __ -3.3 __ -17.5 __ -1.8 __ -0.8

[Roger Smith]

After ten days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-5.5 __ -4.9 __ -5.6 ___  -7.9 __ +0.9 __ -6.6 ___ -7.1 __ +2.1 __ +1.5

 

(after the next seven days estimated from NWS forecasts--to 17th)

 

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-1.0 __ -2.0 __ -3.0 ___ -2.0 __ +2.5 __ -1.5 ___ -0.1 __ +7.0 __ +3.5

 

next update after 12 days may contain a projection to end of month also.

[WEATHER53]

After ten days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-5.5 __ -4.9 __ -5.6 ___  -7.9 __ +0.9 __ -6.6 ___ -7.1 __ +2.1 __ +1.5

 

(after the next seven days estimated from NWS forecasts--to 17th)

 

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

-1.0 __ -2.0 __ -3.0 ___ -2.0 __ +2.5 __ -1.5 ___ -0.1 __ +7.0 __ +3.5

 

next update after 12 days may contain a projection to end of month also.

If you want to just add consensus for me on the western, or is that unfair?

[Roger Smith]

I can't assign scores for anything except an actual forecast. It's your call whether or not to enter the western contests.

 

 

 

Countdown to final anomalies:

 

____________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

_____ 10d ___ -5.5 __ -4.9 __ -5.6 ___ -7.9 __ +0.9 __ -6.6 ___ -7.1 __ +2.1 __ +1.5

_____ 12d ___ -3.0 __ -3.2 __ -4.0 ___ -5.8 __ +2.6 __ -6.2 ___ -3.9 __ +3.5 __ +2.8

_____ 15d ___ -1.7 __ -2.7 __ -4.0 ___ -2.4 __ +3.1 __ -4.8 ___ -0.2 __ +4.9 __ +3.3

_____ 16d ___ -1.2 __ -2.4 __ -3.9 ___ -1.0 __ +3.6 __ -4.3 ___+1.0 __ +5.3 __ +3.3

_____ 17d ___ -0.5 __ -2.1 __ -3.6 ___ -1.1 __ +4.2 __ -3.6 ___+1.3 __ +5.8 __ +3.1

_____ 18d ___ -0.6 __ -2.5 __ -4.1 ___ -1.0 __ +4.5 __ -2.8 ___+1.9 __ +5.8 __ +3.3

_____ 19d ___ -0.7 __ -2.5 __ -4.5 ___ -0.8 __ +4.4 __ -2.2 ___+1.8 __ +5.4 __ +3.4

_____ 20d ___ -1.0 __ -3.2 __ -4.9 ___ -0.5 __ +4.3 __ -1.6 ___+2.1 __ +5.4 __ +3.6

_____ 21d ___ -1.0 __ -3.3 __ -4.9 ___ -0.5 __ +4.5 __ -1.5 ___+2.5 __ +5.4 __ +3.6

_____ 22d ___ -0.9 __ -3.3 __ -5.1 ___ -0.9 __ +4.2 __ -1.2 ___+3.0 __ +5.6 __ +3.5

_____ 23d ___ -1.1 __ -4.0 __ -5.5 ___ -1.3 __ +4.3 __ -1.0 ___+3.5 __ +5.7 __ +3.3

_____ 24d ___ -1.3 __ -4.3 __ -5.9 ___ -1.8 __ +4.3 __ -0.9 ___+3.6 __ +5.6 __ +3.2

_____ 25d ___ -1.5 __ -4.2 __ -5.7 ___ -1.8 __ +4.4 __ -0.7 ___+3.3 __ +5.7 __ +3.2

_____ 26d ___ -0.9 __ -3.8 __ -5.3 ___ -2.0 __ +4.7 __ -0.8 ___+3.3 __ +5.9 __ +3.6

_____ 27d ___ -1.0 __ -3.8 __ -5.1 ___ -2.5 __ +4.4 __ -0.9 ___+3.6 __ +6.1 __ +3.7

_____ 28d ___ -1.5 __ -4.1 __ -5.1 ___ -2.9 __ +3.8 __ -0.9 ___+4.1 __ +6.3 __ +3.8

_____ 29d ___ -1.9 __ -4.4 __ -5.2 ___ -3.0 __ +3.2 __ -0.7 ___+4.1 __ +6.5 __ +3.9

_____ 30d ___ -1.7 __ -4.3 __ -5.2 ___ -2.8 __ +3.2 __ -0.5 ___+4.3 __ +6.8 __ +4.1

__ _ _

____________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

_____ 31d ___ -1.5 __ -4.4 __ -5.1 __ -2.5 __ +3.3 __ -0.2 __ +4.6 __ +7.0 __ +4.0

 

Confirmed monthly anomalies are shown in bold, at this time (1115h EDT) the March scoring has been finalized, as are the two annual scoring tables (as of 2:30 p.m. April 1st).