March 2015 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring March 2015

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ cla ____ ORD_ATL_IAH __ exp _____ TOTAL

 

  

Donsutherland.1 _____________96 _ 52 _ 45 ___ 193 ____ 90 _ 64 _ 96 ___ 250 _____ 443

Absolute Humidity*__ (-1%) ___ 71 _ 95_ 99 ___ 265 ____ 83 _ 00 _ 77 ___ 160 (430)_ 425

 

Consensus _________________ 94 _ 58 _ 53 ___ 205 ____ 84 _ 44 _ 90 ___ 218 _____ 423
 

Rjay _______________________86 _ 66 _ 53 ___ 205 ____ 74 _ 50 _ 92 ___ 216 _____ 421

wxallannj ___________________94 _ 60 _ 53 ___ 207 ____ 86 _ 42 _ 80 ___ 208 _____ 415

Isotherm ___________________ 90 _ 70 _ 51 ___ 211 ____ 92 _ 20 _ 88 ___ 200 _____ 411
N. of Pike ___________________94 _ 62 _ 59 ___ 215 ____ 68 _ 24 _ 72 ___ 164 _____ 379

blazess556 __________________84 _ 64 _ 57 ___ 205 ____ 86 _ 00 _ 88 ___ 174 _____ 379

RodneyS ___________________ 76 _ 36 _ 19 ___ 131 ____ 82 _ 76 _ 90 ___ 248 _____ 379

Midlo Snow Maker ____________ 72 _ 72 _ 61 ___ 205 ____ 90 _ 00 _ 84 ___ 174 _____ 379

Damage in Tolland____________ 90 _ 62 _ 57 ___ 209 ____ 68 _ 54 _ 46 ___ 168 _____ 377

Tenman Johnson _____________96 _ 58 _ 53 ___ 207 ____ 70 _ 14 _ 84 ___ 168 _____ 375
hudsonvalley21 ______________ 86 _ 60 _ 53 ___ 199 ____ 94 _ 12 _ 64 ___ 170 _____ 369

...wxdude64 _________________80 _ 52 _ 39 ___ 171 ____ 90 _ 54 _ 76 ___ 220 _ 391

wxdude64 _______ (-6%) _____ 75 _ 49 _ 37 ___ 161 ____ 85 _ 51 _ 71 ___ 207 _____ 368

Maxim _____________________ 72 _ 28 _ 25 ___ 125 ____ 72 _ 74 _ 90 ___ 236 _____ 361
Weatherguy701 ______________ 54 _ 28 _ 29 ___ 111 ____ 82 _ 70 _ 98 ___ 250 _____ 361
BKViking ____________________64 _ 34 _ 35 ___ 133 ____ 76 _ 58 _ 90 ___ 224 _____ 357

Tom _______________________ 80 _ 30 _ 21 ___ 131 ____ 86 _ 44 _ 88 ___ 218 _____ 349

... Stebo ____________________ 64 _ 84 _ 77 ___ 225 ____ 74 _ 00 _ 68 ___ 142 _ 367

Stebo ___________ (-5%) _____ 61 _ 80 _ 73 ___ 214 ____ 70 _ 00 _ 65 ___ 135 _____ 349

ksammut ____________________60 _ 88 _ 79 ___ 227 ____ 68 _ 00 _ 52 ___ 120 _____ 347

Mikehobbyst _________________ 58 _ 62 _ 25 ___ 145 ____ 28 _ 44 _ 50 ___ 122 _____ 267

 

Normal _____________________ 70 _ 12 _ 00 ____ 82 ____ 50 _ 34 _ 96 ___ 180 _____ 262

  

SD _________________________ 50 _ 02 _ 00 ____ 52 ____ 60 _ 64 _ 76 ___ 200 _____ 252

Roger Smith __________________26 _ 06 _ 25 ____ 57 ____ 00 _ 88 _ 90 ___ 178 _____ 235

Mallow ______________________ 60 _ 02 _ 09 ____ 71 ____ 30 _ 44 _ 76 ___ 152 _____ 221

  

 

Final scoring western contest March 2015

 

FORECASTER ________________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _____ TOTAL

 

Mikehobbyst __________________ 68 _ 50 _ 62 ______ 180

...Stebo ______________________ 50 _ 52 _ 86 __ 188

Stebo ___________ (-5%) _______48 _ 49 _ 82 ______ 179

Isotherm _____________________ 40 _ 30 _ 82 ______ 152

blazess556 ____________________30 _ 32 _ 86 ______ 148
Midlo Snow Maker ______________ 28 _ 34 _ 82 ______ 144

Roger Smith ___________________08 _ 60 _ 60 ______ 128

Damage in Tolland______________ 18 _ 36 _ 60 ______ 114

wxallannj _____________________ 26 _ 15 _ 68 ______ 109

Mallow _______________________ 38 _ 15 _ 50 ______ 103

...wxdude64 ___________________ 38 _ 15 _ 50 __ 103

wxdude64 _______ (-6%) _______ 36 _ 14 _ 47 _______ 97
Absolute Humidity* __ (-1%) _____ 30 _ 14 _ 38 _______ 82

Tom _________________________ 18 _ 11 _ 44 _______ 73
  

Consensus ____________________ 16 _ 15 _ 42 _______ 73

 

Donsutherland.1 _______________ 12 _ 13 _ 36 _______ 61
 

Maxim _______________________ 00 _ 20 _ 36 _______ 56
N. of Pike _____________________00 _ 00 _ 40 _______ 40

Weatherguy701 ________________00 _ 08 _ 30 _______ 38

 

Normal _______________________08 _ 00 _ 20 _______ 28

 

BKViking _____________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 _______ 16

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _______ 00

SD __________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _______ 00

ksammut _____________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _______ 00
Rjay _________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _______ 00

RodneyS ______________________00 _ 00 _ 00 _______ 00

 

* 1 pt scoring penalties applied, no separate scoring line

[wxdude64]

And there is why the classic 'better late than never' is not always true. If game ended today it cost me a win.

[WEATHER53]

 

DCA -3.6

NYC -6.3 - Top 20 coldest March

BOS -8.9 - Top 20 coldest March

ORD -6.1

ATL +0.5

IAH +2.3

DEN +3.0

PHX +3.5

SEA +2.1

 

NYC and BOS was very good call.

[Roger Smith]

True ^^ although Absolute Humidity came even closer (currently -4.4 and -5.2, projecting similar final values). If you're looking in at the end of the month ...

 

post 30 _ countdown to final anomalies showing the final values on Wed Apr 1st.

 

post 31 _ now final March scoring as of Wed Apr 1st.

 

post 33 had provisional annual scoring, file became corrupted and has been deleted and replaced by posts 35 and 36 today, these have now become confirmed annual scoring.

 

still to come _ update on the extreme forecast table (a few more entries this month, although I am not sure if NYC will qualify yet, looks like BOS, ATL, DEN, PHX and SEA will for sure and of those only BOS will be a loss for the extreme and a win for the second most extreme as per the rules of that little contest within a contest).

 

We will have the highly anticipated seasonal max contest added onto May again this year. If you didn't catch the earlier announcement, BKViking won the snowfall date contest regardless of what happens now to April 15th at measurable-snow-free ATL, IAH (and PHX although that is clearly a done deal now).

[Roger Smith]

<<<<<< === = ANNUAL SCORING FOR 2015, JAN-MAR = === >>>>>>

 

 

... For best viewing, set to 100% to prevent line overflow ...

 

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS __Classic__ORD_ATL_IAH__Expanded__TOTAL__Best scores and months

 

Tenman Johnson ______182 _191_179__ 552 ___169 _108_240 __ 517 __1069_ 111 002 _ 0 _ 0 __ FEB

Isotherm ____________ 185_192_170 __ 547 ___164 _112_166 __ 442 __ 989

ksammut ____________173 _184_181 __ 538 ___118 _ 84_184 __ 396 __ 934

RodneyS ____________ 174 _116_ 99 __ 389 ___130_172_210 __ 512 __ 901 _ 000 010 _ 0 _ 0

Mallow ______________193 _102_108 __ 403 ___130_151_212 __ 493 __ 896 _ 100 000 _ 0 _ 1 __ JAN

..

Consensus ___________189 _116_121 __ 426 ___188_115_158 __ 461 __ 887

..

Donsutherland.1 ______ 192 _122_123 __ 437 __ 159_135_144 __ 438 __ 875 _ 100000 _ 0 _ 1 __ MAR

Damage in Tolland ____ 189 _154_165 __ 508 __ 164 _110_ 88 __ 362 __ 870

wxdude64 ___________149 _134_113 __ 396 __ 123 _128_201 __ 452 __ 848

Absolute Humidity *____167 _163_157 __ 487 __ 177 _ 72 _107__ 356 __ 843 _ 011 000 _ 1_0

BKViking ____________ 137 _ 96_126 __ 359 __ 169 _136_140 __ 445 __ 804
Tom ________________168 _ 94_101 __ 363 __ 168 _128_132 __ 428 __ 791

wxallannj ____________178 _102_101___390 __ 183 _ 86_130 __ 399 __ 789 
blazess556 ___________170 _ 94_ 87 __ 351 ___196_ 74 _129 __ 399 __ 750

hudsonvalley21 _______ 184_103_100 __ 387 ___136_ 83_ 134 __ 353 __ 740 _ 000100

Midlo Snow Maker _____127 _ 98 _ 84 __ 309 ___188 _ 61_172 __ 421 __ 730 
Roger Smith __________ 79 _117_158 __ 354 ___ 50 _164_158 __ 372 __ 726 _ 000 110 _ 0 _ 0

..

Normal ______________162 _ 58 _ 42 __ 262 ___120 _130_154 __ 404 __ 666 _

..

Rjay ________________136 _ 82 _ 75 __ 293 ___128 _ 96 _124 __ 348 __ 641
SD _________________132 _ 28 _ 28 __ 188 ___156_140_124 ___ 420 __ 610 _ 000 100 _ 0 _ 0
Stebo _______________ 99 _ 80 _ 73 __ 252 ___174 _ 28 _149 ___351 __ 603

N. of Pike ___________ 150 _ 80 _ 87 __ 317 ___126 _ 72_ 78 ___ 276 __ 593 
metalicwx366 *________ 70 _ 92 _ 96 __ 258 ___ 66 _ 96 _ 42 ___ 204 __ 462 _ 001 010 _ 0 _ 1

Maxim* ______________95 _ 53 _ 49 __ 197 ___ 72 _ 74 _ 90 ___ 236 __ 433

mikehobbyst* ________101 _108 _ 71 __ 280 ___ 38 _ 48 _ 50 ___ 136 __ 416 _ 111 000 _ 1 _ 0

Quixotic1* ___________ 76 _ 49 _ 60 __ 185 ___ 78 _ 50 _ 92 ___ 220 __ 405

Carvers Gap* _________ 63 _ 39 _ 38 __ 140 ___104_ 60 _ 80 ___ 244 __ 384
Weatherguy701 ** _____54 _ 28 _ 29 __ 111 ___ 82 _ 70 _ 98 ___ 250 __ 361 _ 000 001 _ 0 _ 1

SACRUS **___________ 78 _ 36 _ 40 __ 154 ___ 88 _ 68 _ 06 ___ 162 __ 316
H2OTown__Wx **_____ 56 _ 28 _ 20 ___104 ___ 06 _ 56 _ 04 ____ 66 __ 170
hockeyinc **__________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ___ 30 _ 26 _ 00 ____ 56 ___ 56
Uncle W **___________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ____00 _ 30 _ 10 ____ 40 ___ 40

 _______________________________________

 

* or ** have missed one or two months

[Roger Smith]

Western contest annual updates Jan-Mar 2015

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA__ TOTAL (all 9 in brackets, = ranks) __ best scores (west)

 

 

Isotherm _______________180_175_237 ____ 592 ____ (1581) = 1

Midlo Snow Maker ________178_159_229 ____ 566 ____ (1296) = 5 ________ 1 0 1 __ JAN

Roger Smith ____________ 176_143_215 ____ 534 ____ (1260) = 6 ________ 0 1 1

Donsutherland.1 _________ 164_126_191 ____ 481 ____ (1356) = 2

Damage in Tolland _______ 134_177_137 ____ 448 ____ (1318) = 4 ________ 0 1 0

Mallow _________________ 76_148_199 ____ 423 ____ (1319) = 3

mikehobbyst*____________138_139_137 ____ 414 _____ (830) =18 ________ 1 1 0 __ FEB,MAR

N. of Pike ______________ 147_ 95 _106 ____ 348 _____ (941) =17

wxdude64 ______________ 176_ 99 _ 76 ____ 351 ____ (1190) = 7

..

Consensus ______________122 _92 _109 ____ 323 ____ (1210) = 7 ________ 1 0 0

..

Wxallannj _______________118_ 80 _117 ____315 ____ (1093) =10

Maxim*_________________ 40_105 _103 ____ 248 _____ (681) =22

ksammut ________________ 96_ 47 _ 95 ____ 238 ____ (1172) = 8

blazess556 ______________ 52_ 73 _112 ____ 237 _____ (987) =14 __________ 0 0 1

Tom ____________________74_ 89 _ 74 ____ 237 ____ (1028) =13

hudsonvalley21 __________ 105_ 67 _ 55 ____ 227 _____ (967) =16

..

Normal _________________118_ 56 _ 58 ____ 232 _____ (898) =18

..

Stebo ___________________60_ 66 _ 82 ____ 208 _____ (811) =19

RodneyS ________________ 66_ 81 _ 49 ____ 196 ____ (1097) = 9

H2OTown_Wx**__________ 70_ 50 _ 76 ____ 196 _____ (366) =28

Absolute Humidity *________ 38_ 60 _ 92 ____ 190 ____ (1033) =12

Quixotic.1*_______________ 52_ 72 _ 57 ____ 181 _____ (586) =24

Carvers Gap*______________94_ 31 _ 47 ____ 172 _____ (556) =25 _________ 1 0 0

BKViking ________________ 60_ 53 _ 55 ____ 168 _____ (972) =15

metalicwx366 **___________00_ 72 _ 56 ____ 128 _____ (590) =23

SD _____________________ 54_ 36 _ 28 ____ 118 _____ (726) =21

Rjay ____________________ 30_ 44 _ 20 _____ 94 _____ (735) =20

Uncle W **_______________ 26_ 46 _ 18 _____ 90 _____ (130) =29

SACRUS**________________04_ 24 _ 48 _____ 76 _____ (392) =27

Weatherguy701** _________ 00 _ 08 _ 30 ____ 38 _____ (399) =26

hockeyinc** ______________ 00 _ 16 _ 08 ____ 24 ______ (80) =30

 

(not entered in western)

 

Tenman Johnson __________________________________ (1069) =11

 

=======================================================

 

* or ** have missed one or two months

[Roger Smith]

Extreme forecast table updated Jan-Mar 2015

 

 

In January, February and March, these months and forecasts have qualified for an extreme forecast decision. 2nd extreme is only cited where it can win under these rules. No entry there means that an extreme forecast has won the month. This was shown last year as an "A" type win and the others were shown as "B" -- this year I am changing the format but not the actual rules. To qualify, either the extreme forecast of same anomaly sign as actual, or second most extreme, must win high score (or tie). When second most extreme wins, the extreme value is assigned a loss in this table.

 

Month __________ Location ___ Anomaly ____ Extreme forecast ____ 2nd extreme ___ W-L decision

 

Jan 2015 _________ NYC ______ -2.7 _______ -3.5 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) RS _ (W) TJ

Jan 2015 _________ BOS ______ -2.9 _______ -3.3 Roger Smith ___ -2.7 TJ, met ___ (L) RS (W) TJ,m

Jan 2015 _________ IAH ______ -3.3 ________-5.9 Rodney S _____ -2.7 Tenman ___ (L) Rod (W) TJ

Jan 2015 _________ DEN ______ +3.2 _______+2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.5) ________ (W) Midlo

Jan 2015 _________ PHX ______ +2.2 _______ +2.8 Midlo ________ +2.0 Damage __ (L) Mid (W) Dam

Jan 2015 _________ SEA ______ +3.1 _______ +2.9 Midlo ________ (+2.4) ________(W) Midlo

Feb 2015 _________ DCA ______ -8.7 _______ -3.7 Mikehobbyst ____ (-3.5) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _________ NYC ______-11.4 _______ -5.3 Mikehobbyst ____ (-4.3) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _________ BOS ______-12.7 _______ -5.9 Mikehobbyst ____ (-5.2) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _________ ORD ______-13.1 _______ -4.5 Roger Smith ____ (-3.0) ________(W) Roger

Feb 2015 _________ ATL ______ -6.8 ________-3.1 Tenman Johnson _(-2.0) ________(W) Tenman

Feb 2015 _________ IAH ______ -3.8 ________-2.2 Tenman Johnson _(-2.1) ________(W) Tenman

Feb 2015 _________ PHX ______ +5.9 _______ +4.9 Mikehobbyst ____(+4.7) ________(W) Mikehobbyst

Feb 2015 _________ SEA ______ +5.3 _______ +4.5 Roger Smith ____(+3.9) ________(W) Roger

Mar 2015 _________ NYC ______ -4.4 ________ -6.3 Mikehobbyst ____-4.6 Abs Hum __ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum

Mar 2015 _________ BOS ______ -5.1 ________ -8.9 Mikehobbyst ____ -5.1 Abs Hum _ (L) Mike (W) Abs Hum

Mar 2015 _________ ATL ______ +3.3 ________+2.7 Roger _________ (+2.1) _______ (W) Roger

Mar 2015 _________ DEN ______ +4.6 ________+3.0 Mikehobbyst ___ (+2.1) ________ (W) Mike

Mar 2015 _________ PHX ______ +7.0 ________ +4.0 Roger ________ (+3.6) ________ (W) Roger

Mar 2015 _________ SEA ______ +4.0 ________ +3.3 Blazes ________(+3.3, 5% pen) _ (W) Blazes 

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

Note: 20 out of 27 possible cases have qualified for this table.

 

Tenman Johnson _____ 5-0

Mikehobbyst _________ 5-2

Roger Smith _________ 4-2

Midlo Snow Maker ____ 2-1

Absolute Humidity ____ 2-0

Damage in Tolland ____ 1-0

metalicwx366 ________ 1-0

blazess556 __________ 1-0

RodneyS ____________ 0-1