uncle W Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 I think there's a general rule if I'm not mistaken that either October or November have to be below normal for us to have a colder winter. Didn't 1995-1996 have a really warm October and a very cold November which produced the cold and snowy winter. If both October and November are both above normal then our winter is probably sunk. 1963 had a warm October and November but had a cold, snowy winter...1972 had a cold October and November but had a mild winter with little snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 I think there's a general rule if I'm not mistaken that either October or November have to be below normal for us to have a colder winter. Didn't 1995-1996 have a really warm October and a very cold November which produced the cold and snowy winter. If both October and November are both above normal then our winter is probably sunk. These plots show the winter (DJF) temperature anomalies versus the preceding October and November temperatures at Central Park. You can see that October temperatures have almost no correlation to temperatures over the DJF period. Temperatures in November have a slight positive correlation with winter temperatures, though there are certainly cases where below normal temperatures in November still resulted in an warmer-than-normal winter. These temperatures are from WBAN station 94728 over the period between 1947 and 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 November before our snowiest winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 My early thoughts still stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 My early thoughts still stand Inches or feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 A lot of interesting data and a few anomaly years as well. According to that chart one would think a warm November is actually a good thing though I would be cautious if SON all averaged above normal. This month is a lock for above and the end of the month and October look really warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 My early thoughts still stand CM s ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 If a blowtorch continues through the first 15 days of December, then it's time to get worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 CM s ? Inches, most of which will come from three well timed long duration HECS level events, I think. Otherwise, it will be warm and snow fall amounts will limited to centimeters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 My early thoughts still stand Going for the all timer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Going for the all timer? Yup, my science is simple; with three of the last five winters delivering 60"+ seasons (a lot for this area) I have decent odds of coming close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 If a blowtorch continues through the first 15 days of December, then it's time to get worried. even then it could turn fast like December 1975...although the winter wasn't very snowy it was a cold one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 even then it could turn fast like December 1975...although the winter wasn't very snowy it was a cold one... Winter 2004-05 is why you never throw in the towel early in the winter. JAN 2005 is the mother of "flip the switch", first 2 weeks were an absolute torch (for PHL) averaging 44 degrees & on 1/15 the bottom literally fell out with the remainder of the month averaging a lusty 22 degrees. Snow fall was also the same deal, a very weak 0.5-2.0" half way through JAN then a healthy 30-35" the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 2 or 3 above normal is hardly a torch and for those well north and west of the city it may be a plus and not effect snowfall one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 What was last sept's Pacific water temps n west coast temps? The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 2 or 3 above normal is hardly a torch and for those well north and west of the city it may be a plus and not effect snowfall one way or the other. 2-3 degrees above normal for the coast means you can kiss any snowfall goodbye. Those are horrible departures for anyone in the megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 NYC winter forecast 2014-15...Hey I said September would be the peak of our summer, well first week was hot that's for sure and the rest of the month should average out to 0.5-1.0 on th positive side. I think October will end up being below average as will November, December and January. December and late January may be our top snow makers. I look at the weather now and the last few months and determine how the weather in the future will be. I think this upcoming winter will be a veryyyyy snowy east coast. The thing about this winter in my opinion is the cold fronts will be much stronger and you may even see snow in Brownsville Texas or north Florida...especially late December. My first projected snow for NYC will be December 1-2 with up a half foot of snow. But much more snow later on that month with a total of 54 inches for NYC. Most of that happening during December and late January. I expect an average to slightly below average February but less snow and above average march. Winter will likely be over by February 20th. We could also have a big nor'easter mostly rain but heavy wet snow upstate during early march. Recap this will mostly be a snowy winter very snow if you live say from Monticello, NY down to Pittsburgh, Pa down to Baltimore, MD and up to NYC and Hartford, CT. Boston may get some good snows later in February and March of 2015. Edit: NYC: October 0.0 snow; 1.8 inches of rain. November rainstorm ending as some snow resulting a dusting; dry with only 1.4 inches of rain. December: 23 inches of snow; no rain. January: 20 inches of snow; 1.9 inches of rain. February: 9 inches of snow; 2.4 inches of rain. March: 2 inches of slush; 3.7 inches of rain. Have a great day everybody. Btw I have a blog that has past winter forecasts and summer forecasts that verified to the t. (www.sswlive.wordpress.com) Hopefully I'm right again haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 NYC winter forecast 2014-15...Hey I said September would be the peak of our summer, well first week was hot that's for sure and the rest of the month should average out to 0.5-1.0 on th positive side. I think October will end up being below average as will November, December and January. December and late January may be our top snow makers. I look at the weather now and the last few months and determine how the weather in the future will be. I think this upcoming winter will be a veryyyyy snowy east coast. The thing about this winter in my opinion is the cold fronts will be much stronger and you may even see snow in Brownsville Texas or north Florida...especially late December. My first projected snow for NYC will be December 1-2 with up a half foot of snow. But much more snow later on that month with a total of 54 inches for NYC. Most of that happening during December and late January. I expect an average to slightly below average February but less snow and above average march. Winter will likely be over by February 20th. We could also have a big nor'easter mostly rain but heavy wet snow upstate during early march. Recap this will mostly be a snowy winter very snow if you live say from Monticello, NY down to Pittsburgh, Pa down to Baltimore, MD and up to NYC and Hartford, CT. Boston may get some good snows later in February and March of 2015. Edit: NYC: October 0.0 snow; 1.8 inches of rain. November rainstorm ending as some snow resulting a dusting; dry with only 1.4 inches of rain. December: 23 inches of snow; no rain. January: 20 inches of snow; 1.9 inches of rain. February: 9 inches of snow; 2.4 inches of rain. March: 2 inches of slush; 3.7 inches of rain. Have a great day everybody. Btw I have a blog that has past winter forecasts and summer forecasts that verified to the t. (www.sswlive.wordpress.com) Hopefully I'm right again haha Any basis for this forecast or just swinging for the fences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Any basis for this forecast or just swinging for the fences? That fence is little league distance compared to the one absolute humidity is swinging for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If you were going to go that route, you forgot the 36" storm on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Any basis for this forecast or just swinging for the fences? I think we ought to listen to him. According to his blog, his seasonal forecasts are always spot-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Like clockwork the winter forecasts for some are pure wishcasting and like earthlight said of joe bastardi-esque calls swinging for the fences . Next month we will start getting a MUCH better idea of this winter may shape up to be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Like clockwork the winter forecasts for some are pure wishcasting and like earthlight said of joe bastardi-esque calls swinging for the fences . Next month we will start getting a MUCH better idea of this winter may shape up to be like I'd be careful with that thinking as well. Back in 2011 even well into December people were calling for a turnaround and a flip which of course never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Any basis for this forecast or just swinging for the fences?Hey earthlight I've been forecasting winters and summers for quite some time, and when I look to predict the weather in the future I look into big cities around the world how their summer was or for instance the South American big cities how their winter was. My theory is that winter down under is the result of our writers two years after or 24 months. So South America had a huge winter back in 2013 and I don't know weather terms like you guys on here but it seems to work for me. So since South Americas winter was sort of a mild one this year, I'm expecting a mild winter for 2015-2016. This winter may be the snowiest winter in quite some time. I were to make an educated guess, Allentown, Pa will be a the bullseye for heavy snow. We should have more heavy wet snow events here this upcoming winter but much longer events due to blocking that will develop in and around the Greenland region. I hope I am right as all you guys including myself love snow that's why we're on here. Detroit, MI and Chicago, IL may indeed have some snow but it should e much colder and drier due to the constant +PNA. Those troughs will really dig resulting in miller B storms and redeveloping just off the coast of Cape Hatteras. The Gulf of Mexico will be in business to in late January and expect the lakes to freeze much earlier than usual resulting a cold spring of 2015. Summer will prevail due to zonal flows and -nao going positive in late winter. This is why I'm expecting a warmer than average March with less snow for NYC but much more snow just north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If you were going to go that route, you forgot the 36" storm on Christmas If I were to predict a Christmas forecast, I would put money we have a white Christmas here maybe not a full blown snowstorm but at least an inch of snow on te ground yanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'd be careful with that thinking as well. Back in 2011 even well into December people were calling for a turnaround and a flip which of course never happened You definitely got a point there; weather can be quite unpredictable and maddening. You can have the perfect pattern setup for snow… remember last march everyone? That turned out to be a wasted pattern. Then I remember on many occasions where the weather anomalies were downright lousy, yet it found a way to snow. My point is, nobody really knows what's going to happen this winter. One encouraging sign is that the -EPO and +PNA seems to be standing pat. The only thing that is lagging behind is our potential El Nino, although I think we will have a weak one just in time for winter. With that in mind, that would give us plenty of potential, although a fellow weather weenie once wrote: "You can't shovel potential." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I think we ought to listen to him. According to his blog, his seasonal forecasts are always spot-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I hope I'm right as my biggest passion in life is nor'easters. Most people think I'm crazy especially my family and friends as I'm constantly watching models, weather channel and accuweather (they suck btw IMO) and of course reading your posts on here I have learned a lot. So thank you in advance You're not the only one my friend. I'm also a big weather enthusiast. I like to track hurricanes in the summer, but by far my favorite time of year is the winter and prospects for snow. When a big storm approaches, I'll often get giddy, which only aggravates my wife and family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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