22 replies to this topic

[NJHurricane]

Is the inherent uncertainty of significant weather events part of the attraction, or just a totally useless by-product of your weather obsession?

I think I would still look forward to and somewhat enjoy my favorite weather phenomena....but I think the uncertainty is what pushes it from a general interest to a hardcore hobby.

[Organizing Low]

no

[okie333]

Yes, I'd just strongly follow the 10-day forecast and fantasize about the 30-day.

[mnweather]

It would be boring if we knew what was going to happen exactly. The way things are now is much more exciting.

[LocoAko]

Absolutely. The uncertainty just makes it that much more interesting, but the physics behind weather phenomenon, nevermind their sheer intensity and power, drive my interest more than the gambling and waffling of model runs..

[Dsnowx53]

I think one of the most beautiful parts of the science is its inherent uncertainty. Tracking fluid motions and their uncertainty, and applying that with the physics that we already do know is quite the thrill.

[NJHurricane]

okie333, on 18 February 2012 - 08:04 PM, said:

Nope, I'd just strongly follow the 10-day forecast and fantasize about the 30-day.

Almost as I was hitting the post button, I knew someone would point this out.

In the year 2212, future Ji will be able to cancel winters years in advance.

[Hoosier]

Yes, but it would take some of the fun out of tracking the event.

[Fozz]

Yes, but it would probably be a little less thrilling.

[BowMeHunter]

heck no.

[Ed Lizard]

Part of the joy of Boxing Day 2010 was people who stayed off the internet for a day for religious reasons thinking no snow would happen, and then came back to a blizzard warning.
http://www.americanw...271#entry182271

Perfect computer forecasts would take away some of the interest. Only very high end events would be interesting.


The whole series of 8 or 9 discussion threads, and I don't even live in New York anymore.

[Stebo48858]

Yes because then I could plan to be at specific locales that would experience the extreme of the extremes.

[isohume]

It wouldn't matter to me. I have no emotional/ego attachment to wx forecasting and I don't live and die from model run to model run.

[HurricaneJosh]

The uncertainty is in no way an attraction for me. I actually hate it and I hate obsessing over model runs.

If we could know the exact dates, locations, and intensities of tropical cyclones weeks in advance, I would love that. In fact, I would enjoy the whole process even more. Chasing involves a lot of gambling, and I accept that-- it is what it is-- but the bottom line is, I'm not a gambler and I don't like gambling.

[GaWx]

It would make following wx quite a bit less interesting as it is the unpredictability of wx that really makes it fascinating to me. Imagine if a sporting event's final result were known in advance even if it were your team killing the other one. Does anyone think there wouldn't be far less viewers? It would be totally boring to me. What about the incredible come from behind shocking Jack Nicklaus Masters victory of 1986 when he was 46 and far past his best playing years? Would it have been nearly as exciting to watch if we knew the result in advance? I doubt it seriously.

Also, the number of modeled significant events is far larger than the number of actual significant events in my area (SE US). So, there'd be far fewer opportunities for excitement just based on this.

[Srain]

For those of us that lived in the day before the NGM or ETA was readily available 'online' and relied completely from satellite imagery along with ‘knowledgeable explanation’ from the "Pros" and learned as much as we could about weather and the fluid motion of the atmosphere, I still thoroughly enjoy the 'hobby' and it has benefited my life in more positive ways than I can count. There are far worse 'hobbies' out there that people can become interested or involved in and certainly much more costly on a personal level. I have no regrets that I lived in an age where I learned what I did prior to the 'internet age' and all that it has brought to the weather world. The older I get, the more I am reminded that we are never too old to learn and thankfully we live in an age where the 'tools of the trade' are freely available for other to learn as well.

[wxmx]

HurricaneJosh, on 19 February 2012 - 08:46 AM, said:

The uncertainty is in no way an attraction for me. I actually hate it and I hate obsessing over model runs.

If we could know the exact dates, locations, and intensities of tropical cyclones weeks in advance, I would love that. In fact, I would enjoy the whole process even more. Chasing involves a lot of gambling, and I accept that-- it is what it is-- but the bottom line is, I'm not a gambler and I don't like gambling.

So everyone and their mothers would be in the exact same spot waiting for the next cat 5...

[HurricaneJosh]

wxmx, on 19 February 2012 - 10:38 AM, said:

So everyone and their mothers would be in the exact same spot waiting for the next cat 5...

Granted, the very uncertainty of it gives those of us with a honed instinct a competitive advantage. But still...

[Ed Lizard]

wxmx, on 19 February 2012 - 10:38 AM, said:

So everyone and their mothers would be in the exact same spot waiting for the next cat 5...

That. Would be nice being able to evacuate cities that with great certainty would face major hurricane conditions 3 or 4 days in advance, nad it would be a benefit to manking telling people in a certain town in Kansas they were a couple of days away from an EF-3 tornado and should evacuate the town, but as far as a hobby, it'd take away a lot of the appeal.

CNN or TWC would put people chasers, who rely on 'gambling' and superior knowledge the way professional poker players can make a living by turning the odds to their advantage, out of business, with greatly superior money and technology if they knew exactly where to put resources with a guarantee of tremendous footage.

[WeatherWarrior]

For me personally it has little to do with the forecasting and such and way more of the human element and impact. This is also why I tend to focus almost exclusively severe weather. Weather has such a large reaching impact on our daily lives, but especially when our lives are tossed into ciaos. Forecasting is fun, no doubt, I enjoy it to some degree, but given a set of time and having to choose a priority, I chose to focus on the craft of filming the impact side of weather. In the future, I hope to showcase all aspects.

But as far as modeling or forecasting taking the pleasure away...hardly. Many things have changed over the years. I'm sure those with even more years in could say quite a lot about adjusting to the ever changing relm of weather. Heck, even from the first years I chased (1997+) when I had to walk into AMS offices to get the daily maps and make my own forecast to know, when I barely have to lift a finger to figure out where the expanded chase target forecast is (not to say it's easy to forecast and intercept a tornado...still tons of talent needed there). However, each season I get out (my eighth coming up this spring) I've never had a diminished enjoyment, nor with any weather event I've participated in.

[RutgersWx92]

I would certainly still follow the weather and be fascinated by it, but I think the uncertainty definitely makes it more exciting. Part of the fun of this hobby (for me, at least) is tracking the storms ahead of time and the excitement that comes when the models begin to converge on a significant weather event. If we all knew ahead of time exactly what would happen then I think it would be less thrilling and interesting.

[weatherpsycho]

Stebo48858, on 19 February 2012 - 06:30 AM, said:

Yes because then I could plan to be at specific locales that would experience the extreme of the extremes.

Bingo. Models would become my vacation planning map!

[Witness Protection Program]

There will always be stupid people driving across flooded roads, so there will always be Storm Stories to watch.