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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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I've seen Fairlee/Orford/Bradford/Piermont, etc be a bit of a snow hole with this sort of set up. I measured over 3.5" in Hanover and put me down for a solid 6" here Corinth, including the 1" I noted this morning in the obs thread. The hills on the NH side are just tall enough north of Hanover to cause some shadowing with this sort of fetch, from about Lyme/East Thetford clear on up to Woodsville & Wells River--right along the valley, that is. I'll bet there's a fair bit up by the Mel Thompson place at the top of 25A, thinking of Orford. You've seen it though, I'm sure. ;)

Yeah you are absolutely right about the snow hole here in the Valley with this sort of setup. And even more correct about heading East on 25A. It doesn't take long heading out 25A for the snow depths to increase.

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I don't think so, Thats pretty questionable, The surrounding areas are all about 2.5" less on totals then Scarborough

What's so implausible about it? The airport and South Portland both reported around 8", and I thought I saw a 9" figure from Old Orchard Beach earlier. I just did an admittedly unscientific measurement in a flat area out back, and came up with just over 9". I'm as surprised as anyone that this coastal location did so well, but it is what it is. The questioning of storm reports on these boards never ceases to amaze me.

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Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.34” L.E.

It started snowing right around 6:00 A.M. this morning in Waterbury, and there was probably a half inch of accumulation when I left an hour or so later. Just a few miles west though, the snow really tapered off, and there was little if anything falling in Jonesville, Richmond, and Burlington. It eventually started snowing in Burlington though, and there was about a half inch of accumulation when I left around 5:00 P.M. Back at the house at 5:30 P.M. I found 3.7 inches of snow on the snowboard, it seemed fairly dense but it was still sub 10% H2O.

Since there was new snow, temperatures were good, and the wind had generally let up, we headed up to Bolton for a few runs this evening. They were reporting 4 inches of new snow and that seemed about right based on what we encountered. Conditions were already decent, so even though this was just a modest front end dump (probably in the range of 0.3” to 0.4” of liquid like we had down here) it really sweetened things up. An example of just how much effect this snow had was the fact that people were poaching Spillway (and often getting in trouble with patrol it seemed). Spillway has got a ridiculous amount of detritus on it, so when we heard that it was being poached we though people were nuts, but once we saw it when we headed to the upper mountain, we could see why. The coverage looked really impressive, it actually looked like a lot of fun and I almost wondered if they’d blow snow on it. I just don’t think they did because they are focusing their snowmaking efforts elsewhere. This front end dump is already going to get some additional terrain open because there was plenty that was close, and if some decent upslope comes in that could help a little more. One of the lift operators we knew also said that the resort is planning to potentially open Timberline on Saturday. I’m not sure if they are counting on additional snow or if it’s good to go right now once they blast the base area with snow. I added a couple of shots from this evening below:

12JAN12B.jpg

12JAN12A.jpg

Here’s the north to south list of what I’ve seen reported by some of the Vermont Ski areas that have appear to have done afternoon/evening updates:

Burke: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Sugarbush: 5”

Suicide Six: 4”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Stratton: 7”

Mount Snow: 6”

Some details from the 5:30 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 3.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.34 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.9

Snow Density: 9.2% H2O

Temperature: 31.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

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What's so implausible about it? The airport and South Portland both reported around 8", and I thought I saw a 9" figure from Old Orchard Beach earlier. I just did an admittedly unscientific measurement in a flat area out back, and came up with just over 9". I'm as surprised as anyone that this coastal location did so well, but it is what it is. The questioning of storm reports on these boards never ceases to amaze me.

Yeah, I'm not questioning it, either. There was noticeably more snow in Scarborough than in my 'hood on my drive home. In Jeff's defense, those corroborating figures were probably posted after the Scarborough number, so it was likely sticking out. No biggie ... nice storm!

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Here’s the north to south list of what I’ve seen reported by some of the Vermont Ski areas that have appear to have done afternoon/evening updates:

Burke: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Sugarbush: 5”

Suicide Six: 4”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Stratton: 7”

Mount Snow: 6”

Nice report, Jay!

Sometimes I wonder if my using the snow board leads to us getting hosed in marketing during some of these events, but I only report what I get on the boards. I did find this last year, too... in the minor fluff events our reports are in line with everyone, but in these bigger storms it seems like the collective can sometimes cause each other to try and "one up" their neighbor. That's why I always like Bolton's reports because they seem quite accurate based on what I see on Mansfield. Another county north here along the spine, it makes sense that we got an inch less than Bolton given higher QPF south and east.

This morning we have another 0.5" on top of yesterday's base area 2.6" so storm total at 1,500ft is 3.1" so far. Top is probably near 4" from what I can gather this morning from groomers and yesterday's 2pm snow board reading of 3.0".

Jay Peak is reporting 7" this morning... a buddy text me and said they had around 2-3" at the end of the day yesterday when the report was claiming 6". Its funny you have a normal south to north gradient due to the coastal nature of the snow (points south and east should get more with that front end dump), then you have Jay just come in and somehow report the same as where the jackpot should be in central/southern VT. Sugarbush is reporting 4" at the base, and 7" at the summit so far this morning... and that seems correct. Maybe the Jay reporter is Canadian and he's really measuring in CMs.

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Nice report, Jay!

Sometimes I wonder if my using the snow board leads to us getting hosed in marketing during some of these events, but I only report what I get on the boards. I did find this last year, too... in the minor fluff events our reports are in line with everyone, but in these bigger storms it seems like the collective can sometimes cause each other to try and "one up" their neighbor. That's why I always like Bolton's reports because they seem quite accurate based on what I see on Mansfield. Another county north here along the spine, it makes sense that we got an inch less than Bolton given higher QPF south and east.

This morning we have another 0.5" on top of yesterday's base area 2.6" so storm total at 1,500ft is 3.1" so far. Top is probably near 4" from what I can gather this morning from groomers and yesterday's 2pm snow board reading of 3.0".

Jay Peak is reporting 7" this morning... a buddy text me and said they had around 2-3" at the end of the day yesterday when the report was claiming 6". Its funny you have a normal south to north gradient due to the coastal nature of the snow (points south and east should get more with that front end dump), then you have Jay just come in and somehow report the same as where the jackpot should be in central/southern VT.

I had the same thought yesterday. Had a reliable report of 5" at 2 pm at sugarbush. Snowed for a few hours after. Total reported 5". But jay always jackpots, in their minds. But your reports and sugarbush's are reliable. Sure there are times when the totals are under reported, but at least everyone knows, that when you report it, there is at least that much there.

Btw- i am really pumped to ski tomorrow.

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Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.35” L.E.

There was an additional tenth of an inch of snow on the snowboard this morning; it was again fairly dense, coming in at a synoptic-like 10% H2O similar to what we received during the day yesterday. I’ve updated the north to south list of snow totals to the latest values I’ve seen reported by the Vermont ski areas. It’s been a little tricky with regard to the 24/48-hour snow totals, but in general accumulations seem to be around a half a foot up and down the spine:

Jay Peak: 7”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 4”

Bolton Valley: 5”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 7”

Suicide Six: 6”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Okemo: 6”

Bromley: 5”

Magic Mountain: 6”

Stratton: 7”

Mount Snow: 6”

The next round of winter weather advisories is up for the area, with the point and click forecast calling for 4 to 8 inches at our location. I’ve added the latest advisories and storm total snow forecast maps from BTV below:

13JAN12A.jpg

13JAN12B.jpg

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10% H2O

Temperature: 32.7 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

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I had the same thought yesterday. Had a reliable report of 5" at 2 pm at sugarbush. Snowed for a few hours after. Total reported 5". But jay always jackpots, in their minds. But your reports and sugarbush's are reliable. Sure there are times when the totals are under reported, but at least everyone knows, that when you report it, there is at least that much there.

Btw- i am really pumped to ski tomorrow.

Yeah personally I trust Sugarbush's Mark when he reports the snowfall... you can tell he has a passion for it, is a skier, and well known in the Bush community. That community part plays a big role because your name is on the line when folks know you and you report the snowfall totals. No one wants to be called out for saying too much snow, that's for sure. Plus with social media and instant pics/reports online, it really is in your best interest to be conservative. I just follow the snow boards... usually when we get "fluff" it just piles up nicely and we get a lot, during these synoptic storms there isn't all that much mountain enhancement so the difference between town, base, and summit really isn't all that great (usually only an inch or so).

I will say that sense I started the snow board program last season, our snow report satisfaction scores on our resort surveys have been off the charts in a good way. We got a ton of comments at the end of the season last year about how conservative the snowfall reports were. I just think that years of ski area marketing hyping snowfall, skiers almost become tuned into what a ski area's 12" is vs. what a real 12" is actually like to ski through. It feels really deep. Plus skiers are drawn to where snow drifts so you feel like you are skiing deeper snow, or that the snowfall is more, but what you don't see is the other half of the trail that's wind blown down to the ground.

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That second picture is great Jspin. Love when the evergreens get buried with snow like that.

Indeed, I love that too – my son had stopped in that spot, and with those trees all lit up like that by the night skiing lights I told him to freeze so I could get a picture. He also asked me to check the depth of the snow there with my measurement pole, and it actually went down 17 inches before it hit the base snow. That’s up around the 3,000’ elevation, but I’m not too surprised after how well the powder on the upper mountain seemed to be preserved when we were out on Saturday. Hopefully we’ll get some additional snowy images with the anticipated upslope snow.

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Nice report, Jay!

Sometimes I wonder if my using the snow board leads to us getting hosed in marketing during some of these events, but I only report what I get on the boards. I did find this last year, too... in the minor fluff events our reports are in line with everyone, but in these bigger storms it seems like the collective can sometimes cause each other to try and "one up" their neighbor. That's why I always like Bolton's reports because they seem quite accurate based on what I see on Mansfield. Another county north here along the spine, it makes sense that we got an inch less than Bolton given higher QPF south and east.

This morning we have another 0.5" on top of yesterday's base area 2.6" so storm total at 1,500ft is 3.1" so far. Top is probably near 4" from what I can gather this morning from groomers and yesterday's 2pm snow board reading of 3.0".

Jay Peak is reporting 7" this morning... a buddy text me and said they had around 2-3" at the end of the day yesterday when the report was claiming 6". Its funny you have a normal south to north gradient due to the coastal nature of the snow (points south and east should get more with that front end dump), then you have Jay just come in and somehow report the same as where the jackpot should be in central/southern VT. Sugarbush is reporting 4" at the base, and 7" at the summit so far this morning... and that seems correct. Maybe the Jay reporter is Canadian and he's really measuring in CMs.

gotta pay for the propane PF :)

no doubt they will also get 10-12" new by tomorrow morning, throw up a pic of a snowboarder slashing a turn throwing a spray and claim waist deep conditions. Unassuming and subtle are not adjectives for J anymore. its like the antithesis of how Hawaiin's measure wave height

nice texture to this snow, skis like velvet.

temps a creapin, 32F, great snowman bulding right now

edit 9 AM: raining.

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Yeah you are absolutely right about the snow hole here in the Valley with this sort of setup. And even more correct about heading East on 25A. It doesn't take long heading out 25A for the snow depths to increase.

And the worst part of the hole seems to be centered on Fairlee for some reason. It used to frustrate me when I lived in Fairlee and we'd get an inch or two and I'd see cars driving along with a half-foot on the roof--both white plates and green. ;)

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Yeah personally I trust Sugarbush's Mark when he reports the snowfall... you can tell he has a passion for it, is a skier, and well known in the Bush community. That community part plays a big role because your name is on the line when folks know you and you report the snowfall totals. No one wants to be called out for saying too much snow, that's for sure. Plus with social media and instant pics/reports online, it really is in your best interest to be conservative. I just follow the snow boards... usually when we get "fluff" it just piles up nicely and we get a lot, during these synoptic storms there isn't all that much mountain enhancement so the difference between town, base, and summit really isn't all that great (usually only an inch or so).

I will say that sense I started the snow board program last season, our snow report satisfaction scores on our resort surveys have been off the charts in a good way. We got a ton of comments at the end of the season last year about how conservative the snowfall reports were. I just think that years of ski area marketing hyping snowfall, skiers almost become tuned into what a ski area's 12" is vs. what a real 12" is actually like to ski through. It feels really deep. Plus skiers are drawn to where snow drifts so you feel like you are skiing deeper snow, or that the snowfall is more, but what you don't see is the other half of the trail that's wind blown down to the ground.

as Jspin reported, sugarbush upped the total to 7" which makes sense. I think the conservative approach comes from the top down. Win is a skier, out there every day, and is loathe to hype snow totals.

fwiw-here's a little pov from our last little upslope event.

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I'm going to chime and concur with the consensus here. I'll take the 5-7 from Kmart to Bush. That's reasonable. Little lighter echos up around the Stowe way so it makes sense for a 4 inch snowfall at Bolton and Stowe. Gotta say Jay's likely a little high but it was a touch colder up there so maybe we're talking higher ratios. Tough to say. Remember 4 inches of cream cheese can ski a lot better than 6-7 of fluff with out the right base.

Also reliable reports of 5-6 up in the ADK.

Turning to today I think we're looking and 3-8 by tomorrow 10am or so.

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gotta pay for the propane PF :)

no doubt they will also get 10-12" new by tomorrow morning, throw up a pic of a snowboarder slashing a turn throwing a spray and claim waist deep conditions. Unassuming and subtle are not adjectives for J anymore. its like the antithesis of how Hawaiin's measure wave height

nice texture to this snow, skis like velvet.

temps a creapin, 32F, great snowman bulding right now

edit 9 AM: raining.

What was your impression on the snowfall totals up that way this morning?

And yep, it skies like velvet and these 3-4" skis a lot deeper than 6-8" of fluff... you certainly aren't hitting anything under the snow. Its like cream cheese.

I noticed Smuggs reported only 3" past 24 hours which is now in-line with my measurements. I thought that 5" was a little high.

Also, anyone notice the Mansfield stake only reported 1" through 4pm yesterday? What a joke it is trying to get snowfall to fall into an 8-inch rain gauge on a wind-swept summit.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

530 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW

24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE

...VERMONT...

MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.17 21 15 21 1.0 26

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I'm going to chime and concur with the consensus here. I'll take the 5-7 from Kmart to Bush. That's reasonable. Little lighter echos up around the Stowe way so it makes sense for a 4 inch snowfall at Bolton and Stowe. Gotta say Jay's likely a little high but it was a touch colder up there so maybe we're talking higher ratios. Tough to say. Remember 4 inches of cream cheese can ski a lot better than 6-7 of fluff with out the right base.

Also reliable reports of 5-6 up in the ADK.

Turning to today I think we're looking and 3-8 by tomorrow 10am or so.

I just trust my buddy who sent that report in with 2-3" by 4pm at Jay when they were saying 4-6", with another inch last night (to get to 7") that would put them at 3-4" which matches pretty much all other northern VT reports north of I-89.

We have just changed over to snow here at the base area. We had some pretty large sleet and graupel and freezing rain earlier. Now its big aggregate flakes at 30F. Still warm up there somewhere.

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This morning's Co-Op reports.... pretty lackluster across the north with west slope downsloping areas like Jeffersonville, Essex, South Lincoln all reporting around 2" or less in the last 24 hours. All three of those spots should almost jackpot in the next 24 hours though, lol. Weird storm.

SXUS51 KBTV 131442
HYDBTV
DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012
STATION		    PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT		 SNOW
			   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER	 NEW TOTAL SWE
...VERMONT...
...ADDISON COUNTY...
SOUTH LINCOLN	   0.24    38  28  38   CLOUDY	   2.2   1
MIDDLEBURY ARPT			 37  30  35
VERGENNES		   0.27    36  29  33			    1.0   1
...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
ST JOHNSBURY MUSEUM 0.16    32  26  30
SUTTON			  0.24    28  23  28   CLOUDY	   2.4   8
SUTTON			  0.14    28  24  28   CLOUDY	   1.5   6
WALDEN			  0.31    27  21  27   FOG		  3.5   9
...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
BURLINGTON INTL ARP 0.06    36  31  35					  1
ESSEX JUNCTION	  0.06    37  31  36   LIGHT RAIN	 T   1
...ESSEX COUNTY VT...
AVERILL			 0.13    29  20  27   CLEAR	    1.6   6
EAST HAVEN
GALLUP MILLS			    28  23  27
GILMAN			  0.06							  1.5
ISLAND POND
ISLAND POND AIRPORT		 28  24  28
...FRANKLIN COUNTY VT...
ENOSBURG FALLS 2
... GRAND ISLE COUNTY VT...
SOUTH HERO NEPP
...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
JEFFERSONVILLE	  0.09		    32   MODERATE OR  1.4   7
EDEN			    0.17    30  25  30			    1.6   5
MORRISVILLE ARPT    0.05    33  29  32
...ORANGE COUNTY...
CHELSEA			 0.36    28  24  28   SLEET	    5.0   6
CORINTH			 0.55    30  27  29   CLOUDY	   5.0   8
UNION VILLAGE DAM   0.24    33  27  31   CLOUDY	   3.8   4
...ORLEANS COUNTY...
IRASBURG
JAY PEAK
NEWPORT			 0.15    32  26  32   CLOUDY	   1.2   2
...RUTLAND COUNTY...
DANBY FOUR CORNERS  0.09    43  31  38   CLOUDY	   0.0
RUTLAND
RUTLAND SOUTHERN VT 0.00    34  30  34
...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
KNAPP STATE ARPT    0.29    31  28  30
MONTPELIER
NORTHFIELD		  0.49    32  28  32			    4.0   4
PLAINFIELD		  0.31    29  27  28			    3.0   4
WAITSFIELD		  0.34    30  25  29   SNOW SHWRS   4.4   5
WORCESTER		   0.36    29  26  29   FOG OR ICE F 3.9   7
...WINDSOR COUNTY...
BETHEL			  0.42    33  28  32			    5.0   6
CAVENDISH		   0.39    31  27  29   FRZG RAIN    3.3   5
N HARTLAND RES	  0.23    32  26  29   CLOUDY	   3.3   3
N SPRINGFIELD RES   0.20    30  27  30			    2.5   4
ROCHESTER		   0.40    31  27  30			    3.0   4
SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT 0.20    33  29  30
WOODSTOCK		   0.35    32  27  30   LIGHT RAIN   3.0   7

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What was your impression on the snowfall totals up that way this morning?

And yep, it skies like velvet and these 3-4" skis a lot deeper than 6-8" of fluff... you certainly aren't hitting anything under the snow. Its like cream cheese.

I noticed Smuggs reported only 3" past 24 hours which is now in-line with my measurements. I thought that 5" was a little high.

Also, anyone notice the Mansfield stake only reported 1" through 4pm yesterday? What a joke it is trying to get snowfall to fall into an 8-inch rain gauge on a wind-swept summit.

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

530 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012

STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW

24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE

...VERMONT...

MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.17 21 15 21 1.0 26

pretty decent considering it only really snowed for an hour here in the valley. friends in holland had 3-4, more, but its splittin a pretty pathetic hair. It certainly puked longer up on the hill(J). its funny you mention the deficiency of the rain guage, my buddy and I believe J is using a wind sock with a yard stick to get their totals, just as deceiving. I can see the frustration you guys in the business have with it, but its a great running joke for us, just read their daily summary, polishing a turd is an acquired skill, they have lots of practice.

just saw the number you put up PF - sutton FTW! another little snow magnet, that line into newark is a great little snow belt

kind of shocked by eden's report, thought they would have been closer to J, maybe the lowell range shadowed em for this one

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Sometimes I wonder if my using the snow board leads to us getting hosed in marketing during some of these events, but I only report what I get on the boards. I did find this last year, too... in the minor fluff events our reports are in line with everyone, but in these bigger storms it seems like the collective can sometimes cause each other to try and "one up" their neighbor. That's why I always like Bolton's reports because they seem quite accurate based on what I see on Mansfield. Another county north here along the spine, it makes sense that we got an inch less than Bolton given higher QPF south and east.

I wasn’t surprised to see the Bolton and Stowe numbers come in with another inch once all was said and done yesterday – we picked up 3.8” down at the house, so for Bolton to have only 4” at 3,000’+ just a few miles away seemed a little low – the 5” reported now is more like what I would expect. And 4 to 5 inches seemed perfectly reasonable based on what we skied last night.

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