NorEaster27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Right in your wheelhouse! it is! I actually went with 3-6 for NYC this storm and watch we actually only get 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Lol I always love how you appear at the first sign of reduction in totals or an unfavorable low track, etc. yeah-I'd love to see a post from him like "the 12Z GFS doubles QPF for our area!" Think we'll ever see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 it is! I actually went with 3-6 for NYC this storm and watch we actually only get 1-3. You went with 3-6 for every storm over the last 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM aside, I haven't had a good feeling about this storm today for the NYC metro. Areas to the NE are a different story. Why? I don't think any of us were expecting any massive totals. I think most of us around here would be very happy with 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 <br>it is! <img src="http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/weight_lift.gif" class="bbc_emoticon" alt=""> I actually went with 3-6 for NYC this storm and watch we actually only get 1-3.<br> Really? Because - quite literally - 70% of your posts contain the phrase "1-3". I keep thinking you're perpetuating some kind of ironic perspective but then I realize you're serious and it is even more baffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 SREFs say everybody is fine +.25 for all. SREFs have the highest verification scores inside 24. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Why? I don't think any of us were expecting any massive totals. I think most of us around here would be very happy with 2-4 inches. The radar signature seems too far to the north ... the fact that we're on the SE edge of moderate snow totals ... would much rather be on the NW side. Anyway, we'll see what happens. I haven't invested too much time or expectation for this storm... if it only delivers an inch or two, I won't be broken up over it. The ground will be covered when I wake up tomorrow and can't really ever complain about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Really? Because - quite literally - 70% of your posts contain the phrase "1-3". I keep thinking you're perpetuating some kind of ironic perspective but then I realize you're serious and it is even more baffling. lol, i forecast 1-3 when I see 1-3. I havent forecasted 1-3 at all this year, I have actually been pretty quiet on here. I have some money on 3.5 and higher so we can rest assured NYC will get less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 lol, i forecast 1-3 when I see 1-3. I havent forecasted 1-3 at all this year, I have actually been pretty quiet on here. I have some money on 3.5 and higher so we can rest assured NYC will get less than that. Dude, U forecasted 1"-3" during last years snowicane. And we ended with 12"-21". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Fwiw, RSM prints out .50-.75 QPF for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Fwiw, RSM prints out .50-.75 QPF for the NYC area. Right on cue with the obscure model uptick! Metsfan, you're a trip dog... a real trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The radar signature seems too far to the north ... the fact that we're on the SE edge of moderate snow totals ... would much rather be on the NW side. Anyway, we'll see what happens. I haven't invested too much time or expectation for this storm... if it only delivers an inch or two, I won't be broken up over it. The ground will be covered when I wake up tomorrow and can't really ever complain about that. I posted last night there would be bridge jumping due to that radar signature...the 500mb trough tracks too far north for the WAA precip to cause snow east of NW NJ initially but that area of snow will likely fall apart in the next few hours with redevelopment over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The classic NAM QPF cutdown freakout the night of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Right on cue with the obscure model uptick! Metsfan, you're a trip dog... a real trip. Aren't Srefs ran with RSM members? So Srefs are an obscure model too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 850 mb temp advection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The classic NAM QPF cutdown freakout the night of the storm. Only noreaster and ace are freaking out. No one else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Aren't Srefs ran with RSM members? So Srefs are an obscure model too? Chill brah, my comment to Snow88 was a compliment, not a dig. I don't even know what the RSM is! You guys know many more models and their derivative models than I, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 generally I think if the RSM is showing good precip thats a nice sign, it tends to be precip light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Nice off topic discussions guys! 29.1F 65% Humidity Dew is 19 yeah, can't understand why we go through 4-5 1,000 post threads with every storm threat nowadays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 27.9 temp,68% humidity and dewpoint of 18 on the nw side of Suffolk.folks need to calm down and just accept a 2-4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Chill brah, my comment to Snow88 was a compliment, not a dig. I don't even know what the RSM is! You guys know many more models and their derivative models than I, that's for sure. I believe Srefs are run with RSM and ETA members So the actual RSM is a useful model, especially short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 generally I think if the RSM is showing good precip thats a nice sign, it tends to be precip light. It tends to be QPF light because it goes nuts with convective bombs everywhere lighting up the model like a Christmas tree. It'll often have subsidence all over the damn map screwing up it's precipitation fields. But yes there are a bunch of rsm members in the sref mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I believe Srefs are run with RSM and ETA members So the actual RSM is a useful model, especially short term. The SREF is run with ARW, NMM, RSM, and ETA members. If my memory serves me correctly, the ETA and RSM members are being phased out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The SREF is run with ARW, NMM, RSM, and ETA members. If my memory serves me correctly, the ETA and RSM members are being phased out shortly. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Does anyone notice how some people only come out and post when things are not going so well, like tonight's NAM. Yeah, those are typically the people you want to ignore instead of the way it is usually handled with a bunch of people responding to their posts. They are trolls, there is an ignore button. I utilized it a long time ago so I didn't see those posts until somebody quoted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anyone else's temp rising? I wad at 28 at like 630 and now am up to 31.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 31.7 in Astoria. Temp has been 31.5-31.7 for the past 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I can't understand why everyone seems so bent out of shape for this event...I mean it was never really going to be all that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Anyone else's temp rising? I wad at 28 at like 630 and now am up to 31.1 nope im dropping 28.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Also, for the very little that it's worth...the RUC gives us a few hours of heaven later tonight. this thread needs to refocus. I like the looks of the RUC model... and here's a sign it may be onto something... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 805 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND EAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYS WAS JUST NW OF BECKLEY WV KBKW WITH A TOUGH OF LOW PRES EXTENDING NE ACROSS WESTERN PA AT 00Z/7 PM. TWO AREAS OF PRES FALLS WERE OBSERVED...A 3.6 MB FALL OVER SW PA ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND A 2.5 MB FALL OVER THE NC COAST. AS THE FIRST WEAK LOW ADVECTS NE ACROSS SW PA...ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM FURTHER NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LIGHT E WIND FLOW AT THE SFC ACROSS THE NYC METRO AREA HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER TEMPS THAN THE EARLIER FORECAST. THIS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST CAUSING SFC TEMPS TO FALL VERY SLOWLY UNTIL SNOW DEVELOPS AND BECOMES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z/1 AM TONIGHT. UPDATED WIND FCSTS THROUGH 06Z BASED ON THE 13 KM RUC MODEL...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS LIGHT NE FLOW. IN THE MEAN TIME...RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID LVL REFLECTIVITES ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SNOW FLURRIES FALLING THROUGH THIS MID CLOUD DECK CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND OVERCOME 15 DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ADJUSTED AND SLOWED THE TIMING OF STEADIER SNOW SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE...OUR CURRENT AFTERNOON FCST STANDS. with the ruc picking up on the short term trends, it might be sensing something about the overall evolution of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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