atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 HPC At the very least I think this is reflecting more of a faster timing then what the ECM would be suggesting on its last two runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wouldn't the storm be more progressive and not so wrapped up like the Euro has given the lack of blocking. I actually thinks there's a lot of potential with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GGEM ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro ensemble mean doesn't agree with the op run. It shows 1009 coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't like how those ensemble means don't have a high to the north. That's basically the only thing stopping us from changing over to rain unless the low takes a perfect thread the needle track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 As I posted earlier in the thread, the low pressure on the EC OP is clearly too far north and east. You would think it should be located around GA or SC where all the energy is in the base of the trough. Actually I think thats close to what the 12Z JMA had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This model blows from what I gather but check that depiction out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 and there's Goose's hr84 storm on the 18z Nam. hmmmmm http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_084.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 and there's Goose's hr84 storm on the 18z Nam. hmmmmm http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp0_084.shtml Yeah I noticed this on the 12z EC. It was on 00z EC as well but further north. Some mets have said if it really bombs out it could help us in the long term. It is funny though how it hasn't been given much attention especially considering the tendencies of models shifting late in the game so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 and there's Goose's hr84 storm on the 18z Nam. hmmmmm http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp0_084.shtml Now I know why the MA board just crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This model blows from what I gather but check that depiction out.... link plz...i'm trying to collect the weird foreign models I have an italian if you'd like, but as far as i can tell, it only runs at 0z oh btw, anyone have the German? i can only find north atlantic plots for that one As far as this storm is concerned, I'm just gonna wait until we are like 2.5 days out before getting excited. The latest "disaster" has me petrified at believing them any farther out. Edit: Found the link for the aussie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Now I know why the MA board just crashed. The 12z GFS is much weaker with that energy at the same time frame as the 18z NAM 84hr system. This alone should be a flag...and especially since the NAM has begun making 84hr bombs more of a regularity as of late only to loose them on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z euro ens mean never gets the 0c line much past ric,---dc looks like snow the entire event per ens. A positive note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 DGEX keeps the trough positively tilted and keeps this south for most. Nice snow south of D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18 Z NOGAPS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not sure I buy its solution of driving the low northward beyond 144 hours, it would likely slide east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 It would be nice if we could get the models to agree on one event 4-5 days out this season. This may be our best chance so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It would be nice if we could get the models to agree on one event 4-5 days out this season. This may be our best chance so far this season. Tough in La Ninas...the northern stream causes problems, we saw this with the January 2000 and December storm...the data basically stinks in Canada and both cases were likely partially due to the northern disturbance not properly sampled til late...its just that the models were better and caught on sooner a decade later...same reason I've said we could see a drastic shift on the 00z runs tonight in regards to the system for Friday as the northern branch wave was basically still quite far north this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Feels like the total lack of forecasted blocking dooms this storm in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The storm at the end of the NAM's range continues to blow off the Carolina coast, the northern stream shortwave should phase with it over extreme E NE and cause it to become a massive 50/50 low possibly setting the stage for a big event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The storm at the end of the NAM's range continues to blow off the Carolina coast, the northern stream shortwave should phase with it over extreme E NE and cause it to become a massive 50/50 low possibly setting the stage for a big event next week. wonderful !!! could lock the H and slow down the flow....nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The storm at the end of the NAM's range continues to blow off the Carolina coast, the northern stream shortwave should phase with it over extreme E NE and cause it to become a massive 50/50 low possibly setting the stage for a big event next week. Yeah, when I saw it on the 84hr NAM at 18z I was thinking about a possible 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 check that: hr 84 looks good on NAM. the energy above NY should link up with the ocean low and spin in up ..... nao forecasted to be NEG so it should hold it in place a little. then in the SW theres a cutoff maybe? or just energy ? but the W ridge is sharp this will dig deff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 next week will not be a rainstorm. GEFS have become stronger with the HP and look like the JMA at 156 hours. Scandanavian / east based NAO should be enough to lock in the 50/50. With a digging but not closed of H5, we should be able to propel moisture north into the cold dome for at the very least a nice over running event subject to more if any phasing causes an slp to strengthen off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well.. So far on the GFS there are two pieces of energy that phase fairly nicely next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Unfortunately now it's got a million different pieces of energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 102 hr 00z GFS actually a pretty cool H5 setup for overrunning snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Unfortunately now it's got a million different pieces of energy im loving that 1032-1036 high planted just above up state ny. The way how the h5 setup is on the gfs, it loos like it comes up to hse or orf then scoots ene or ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 im loving that 1032-1036 high planted just above up state ny. The way how the h5 setup is on the gfs, it loos like it comes up to hse or orf then scoots ene or ne It's an awesome setup for overrunning. The H5 depiction is actually decent...it could amplify up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The high is much better positioned and stronger on new york state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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