tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br />It's an awesome setup for overrunning. The H5 depiction is actually decent...it could amplify up the coast.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Yes, it certainly is. Strong thermal gradient present.. Strong high over the northeast with the confluent flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Great setup but as we saw on the models last week none of the really could see the overrunning precip until inside 3 days....its ridiculous how little precip the GFS shows over the MA at 108-114 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Miller A with a high in good position. I like that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Also pretty rare I have seen 3 on air Mets Today already mention next chance of snow after Fri is Tues into Weds next week.. Usually they don't even mention a potential storm until 4 or 5 days out at the earliest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's an awesome setup for overrunning. The H5 depiction is actually decent...it could amplify up the coast. yup, as shown, basically lgt to somewhat mod precip from hr 117 to hr 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nice to see the HP advertisied on the ensembles show up on the OP. Given the GFS' history of sheering out short waves, would not be surprised to see a strong H5 vort and thus better surface reflection in subsquent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Boy.. That ridge out west is becoming even more massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS still may be dropping the high too much south...we could use the depiction with the high maybe 100 miles more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Something tells me it's not going to happen this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS is a few steps away from looking like a PD2 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 have seen this on the gfs for years and years and years, classic north trend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Something tells me it's not going to happen this way If this storm happens I'd be surprised if it is not before 144 hours...the models seem to be confused a bit as to whether the event is the first one or the second but my guess is the first one at 108-140 is gonna be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That is one massive west coast ridge. That will definitely help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 By the way, I love how the GFS shows a few flakes of snow and half the forum switches to this thread. You guys truly love snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 By the way, I love how the GFS shows a few flakes of snow and half the forum switches to this thread. You guys truly love snow. We need help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We need help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 here is ooz ukie at 144. Much slow than gfs with closed off H5 but also HP has already moved off the coast. If this came up the coast, it would be wet, not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 By the way, I love how the GFS shows a few flakes of snow and half the forum switches to this thread. You guys truly love snow. True, Plus alot of people sense Next weeks storm can possibly be something big(At least Bigger than the next event)..The signals are definitely there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 By the way, I love how the GFS shows a few flakes of snow and half the forum switches to this thread. You guys truly love snow. It reminds me of the conference at a hotel where the management came in and yelled tornado warning and every person in the room instead of going to the shelter ran outside or when I was on a fishing boat and the entire crew jumped IN the water when they thought they saw a tiger shark in what was an environment where they normally never show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 here is ooz ukie at 144. Much slow than gfs with closed off H5 but also HP has already moved off the coast. If this came up the coast, it would be wet, not white. I think the 0z UKMET is too slow with the storm; you can already see precipitation streaming into the Southern Plains on the GFS at 84 hours, and these storms don't like to wait around. I would imagine the storm occurs in the Day 5 time range when the high pressure is still in decent position. The ECM ENS also support the idea of the storm being off the coast instead of an inland runner. Also, the antecedent airmass is truly arctic with NYC's 850s around -20C Monday morning and -12C right as the storm forms, arguing for a snowy solution. True, Plus alot of people sense Next weeks storm can possibly be something big(At least Bigger than the next event)..The signals are definitely there.. Next week's storm could be a classic in the making...+PNA is on absolute steroids, we have high heights over the North Atlantic, very strong southern shortwave digging with the northern stream injecting energy from the Northern Rockies, etc. I really like the look on the GFS for a major I-95 coastal storm, time will tell of course. The GFS also brings the cold back after the storm, so no chance of it melting down immediately like February 2006 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 102 hr 00z GFS actually a pretty cool H5 setup for overrunning snow It's also VERY cold: Sweet temp. inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 00z Nogaps @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br />It reminds me of the conference at a hotel where the management came in and yelled tornado warning and every person in the room instead of going to the shelter ran outside or when I was on a fishing boat and the entire crew jumped IN the water when they thought they saw a tiger shark in what was an environment where they normally never show.<br /><br /><br /><br />I have a funny tornado warning story.. When I was a freshman in college, I had a friend who was a met major too.. Well, some of the dorms are 22 story towers and he was convinced he saw a funnel cloud.. So he started running down 22 flights of stairs yelling "tornado, tornado" and ran over to the weather building... It was classic. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think the 0z UKMET is too slow with the storm; you can already see precipitation streaming into the Southern Plains on the GFS at 84 hours, and these storms don't like to wait around. I would imagine the storm occurs in the Day 5 time range when the high pressure is still in decent position. The ECM ENS also support the idea of the storm being off the coast instead of an inland runner. Also, the antecedent airmass is truly arctic with NYC's 850s around -20C Monday morning and -12C right as the storm forms, arguing for a snowy solution. Next week's storm could be a classic in the making...+PNA is on absolute steroids, we have high heights over the North Atlantic, very strong southern shortwave digging with the northern stream injecting energy from the Northern Rockies, etc. I really like the look on the GFS for a major I-95 coastal storm, time will tell of course. The GFS also brings the cold back after the storm, so no chance of it melting down immediately like February 2006 did. The models seem to be settling on the weak low idea...the 12Z Euro was deep but its ensembles largely were not...the weak low idea is great if the sytem happens pre hour 144 or so...if it happens after that we want a deep system that will draw in the cold air....a weak 1005mb low once the high is gone will be an elevation snowstorm most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I have a funny tornado warning story.. When I was a freshman in college, I had a friend who was a met major too.. Well, some of the dorms are 22 story towers and he was convinced he saw a funnel cloud.. So he started running down 22 flights of stairs yelling "tornado, tornado" and ran over to the weather building... It was classic. lol This is classic...freshman overreaction to the extreme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 00z Nogaps @ 120 I'd prefer to see the NOGAPS be more progressive than the GFS, that I'm not too crazy about seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is classic...freshman overreaction to the extreme... you know if you would of just showed the audio to that and not the video, i would of thought it was a video of some other sort, just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br />This is classic...freshman overreaction to the extreme...<br /><br /><a href='http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVZOPpBjz-Y' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'>http://www.youtube.c...h?v=YVZOPpBjz-Y</a><br /><br /><br /><br />It was hilarious.. It happened like 17 years ago, but I remember it like yesterday.. I won't even get into the part where he sings air supply songs in front of a bunch of girls and does it with real meaning.. Sorry for being off topic.. Back to the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 00z Nogaps 144-156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That would be a perfectly timed scenario, with the storm possibly riding up with the HP to north maintaining the cold air mass, of course most storms need perfect timing. I didn't track PDII, but this seems starkly similar in regards to the high to the north, but it also depends whether or not that HP scoots off to the East, and of course if the system itself takes a nice track off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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