Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS east, GGEM maybe not as far west, Euro can't figure out what you guys are saying on ultimate track but if I were totally impartial and we were forced to fast forward ahead 5-6 days Would appear a track NW of what has been common lately is "the mean" which means for many of you, 40/70, Will etc...nothing...just more snow, but for the guys on the fun side of the fringe like Bob/Jerry/Scott maybe not as much fun. Totally random thought but are we hinting at a track 20 or 30 miles NW of what's been happening? It's wicked early and the GFS being so far east gives me a smidge of hope, but in the end if it all settles out at the same pattern it has in the past we just end up with a track around/NW of where it's been.... For me anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I can't really comprehend that right now. It would be pretty remarkable. This is one of your "east flow" fetish events; you would be EPIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is one of your "east flow" fetish events; you would be EPIC. Yeah if we manage to stay cold enough in the mid-levels, then the central hills, Monads, and Berkshires would probably put up some obscene totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah if we manage to stay cold enough in the mid-levels, then the central hills, Monads, and Berkshires would probably put up some obscene totals. 30-40" there and I'll take 25-30". Lock it. 4-5' snow packs ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 30-40" there and I'll take 25-30". Lock it. 4-5' snow packs ftw. lol that would be toddler and small child threatening, they could get lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EURO actually sped it up a bit this run, which good......faster the better with regard to the high. It just dug a little more, which is very correctable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Feb 25th 2010 repeat....colder this time.....looks bad for the folks to the east Now THIS is what I like to here. Snowicane Redux! EURO actually sped it up a bit this run, which good......faster the better with regard to the high. It just dug a little more, which is very correctable. The sped up solutions are much better since we still have antecedent cold...I like that the ECM trended faster even if it is warm. A faster solution should be MUCH colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro esn mean takes a track just E of SBY to se of ACK...would be an all snow system for everyone except maybe ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro esn mean takes a track just E of SBY to se of ACK...would be an all snow system for everyone except maybe ACK. Oh yeah. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 06z GFS is essentially a miller B that gets crushed out to sea before making it here. So different from other guidance on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 00z GGEM Ensm. are more of a BM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 All the maps I just posted look in pretty good agreement for 108-120h out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL MID-WEEK COASTAL STORM...MDL SOLNS EXHIBITING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HANDLING MASS FIELDS FROM SFC-H5. THERE IS SOME SUBSTANTIAL AGREEMENT AMONGST ECMWF/GEFS/GEM WITH THE FASTER OPER GFS REMAINING THE FAR OUTLIER...NEVERTHELESS THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT HOLDS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND OFFERS A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC APPROACH WHILE CONSIDERING A BLEND OF MOS-GUIDANCE AND PREV FCSTR THINKING. ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP. BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OF HIGHER THEATE AIR COUPLED WITH BEST UPR LVL DYNAMICS...LEFT EXIT RGN OF THE H3 JET...AND Q-VECT FORCING IS PREVALENT AROUND 0-6Z THURS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS SUCH THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE PD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THRU THE FCST RGN. PRECIP TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND LIKELY A BETTER HANDLE WILL BE EXIST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST 0Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED WARMER...SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE 0Z GEM. BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT WARM AIR WILL PRESS SO FAR INTO THE INTERIOR WITH ANTICIPATED COLD AIR IN PLACE...SO HAVE NEGATED THE MDL SOLN. BEYOND THURS MORN...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEWD THRU THE SERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND STRONG NWLY WINDS FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THRU THE NERN CONUS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CHC PRECIP AND CLOUDS TO LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well, the 06z GFS is still a puker unless you're in PHL. Glad to have something to track. Look like it could be pretty good. I'll be comfortable with the EC. Nice to have returned from 83* Jamaica to the wintry landscape. I wonder how clear the snowblower will make my driveway with the ice from earlier in the week. Took a look out the window. Generator is BURIED. Guess I know what I'm doing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 06z gfs ens mean takes the low over the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 06z gfs ens mean takes the low over the BM Trend it in a little further and bring a smile to GC! I much prefer Miller B's from a forecating perspective. Seems so much more can go wrong with an A--at least for this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Its kind of amazing that all the ensemble means are putting it over the BM...GFS,GGEM,ECMWF ensembles all very close. GGEM ens probably a shade SE of others, but pretty remarkable considering its still 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Trend it in a little further and bring a smile to GC! I much prefer Miller B's from a forecating perspective. Seems so much more can go wrong with an A--at least for this neck of the woods. You'd do fine with a BM track...esp with a storm this size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 will any windex threat sunday? also looks like cape cod....(maybe ann as well) could have some OES Later this weekend. potential accums ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lots of beers last night at a sledding party at a friends lol..I met a dude from Burrilville, RI..didn't know anyone actually lived there. I told him it was a great snow spot and he told me they had 58 inches in the Blizz of 78..Is that true?? Anyway..mid week storm looks like a monster..still worried about the west track with Euro over Block Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 CT Blizz will not be pleased when he wakes up and sees this lol I am very pleased..I'd get a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 will any windex threat sunday? also looks like cape cod....(maybe ann as well) could have some OES Later this weekend. potential accums ? Looks marginal...best moisture is north of the pike...lacking a good LI spike, but LL lapse rates are good and PVA is good, so there could be something...but probably not a band of heavy squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro esn mean takes a track just E of SBY to se of ACK...would be an all snow system for everyone except maybe ACK. Aren't the ens typically always colder than the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Aren't the ens typically always colder than the op? Yes but it was notable that the 00z ensembles were less amplified than the 12z ensembles despite the OP run being more amplified than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good thing CT Blizz is in bed What is your obsession with me? No the Rangers aren't that good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Unbelievable ENS agreement even crazy Uncle is gonzo. Superstorm11? Have not read the main board but isn't this HM's long lead end of Jan KU he talked about in NOV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes but it was notable that the 00z ensembles were less amplified than the 12z ensembles despite the OP run being more amplified than 12z. It was comforting to read you are leaning towards this scenario vs the op..even though the op really isn't that bad for interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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