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Pattern beyond Jan 21st


Ginx snewx

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GFS east, GGEM maybe not as far west, Euro can't figure out what you guys are saying on ultimate track but if I were totally impartial and we were forced to fast forward ahead 5-6 days

Would appear a track NW of what has been common lately is "the mean" which means for many of you, 40/70, Will etc...nothing...just more snow, but for the guys on the fun side of the fringe like Bob/Jerry/Scott maybe not as much fun. Totally random thought but are we hinting at a track 20 or 30 miles NW of what's been happening?

It's wicked early and the GFS being so far east gives me a smidge of hope, but in the end if it all settles out at the same pattern it has in the past we just end up with a track around/NW of where it's been.... :raining:

For me anyway....

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Feb 25th 2010 repeat....colder this time.....looks bad for the folks to the east

Now THIS is what I like to here. Snowicane Redux!

EURO actually sped it up a bit this run, which good......faster the better with regard to the high.

It just dug a little more, which is very correctable.

The sped up solutions are much better since we still have antecedent cold...I like that the ECM trended faster even if it is warm. A faster solution should be MUCH colder.

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TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

WITH POTENTIAL MID-WEEK COASTAL STORM...MDL SOLNS EXHIBITING A FAIR

AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HANDLING MASS FIELDS FROM SFC-H5. THERE IS SOME

SUBSTANTIAL AGREEMENT AMONGST ECMWF/GEFS/GEM WITH THE FASTER OPER

GFS REMAINING THE FAR OUTLIER...NEVERTHELESS THERE IS STILL A LOT OF

UNCERTAINTY. HAVE GONE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT HOLDS THE MIDDLE

GROUND AND OFFERS A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC APPROACH WHILE CONSIDERING A

BLEND OF MOS-GUIDANCE AND PREV FCSTR THINKING.

ECMWF HIGHLIGHTS NRN GULF SFC LOW DVLPMNT BY 18Z TUE MOVING NEWD

THRU THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z WED...AND NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND ACRS THE

ISLANDS AND CAPE BY 6-12Z THURS. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE GRIP OF

THE EWD RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH IN KEEPING COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE

SFC. NOTABLY WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK...AND DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL

MOVEMENT OF THE ANTICIPATORY COASTAL STORM...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO

SCOUR OUT COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW

ENGLAND...PSBLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.

BASED ON THE 12Z ECMWF...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE

ABUNDANT THRU THE ATMOS COLUMN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OF HIGHER THEATE

AIR COUPLED WITH BEST UPR LVL DYNAMICS...LEFT EXIT RGN OF THE H3

JET...AND Q-VECT FORCING IS PREVALENT AROUND 0-6Z THURS OVER SRN NEW

ENGLAND. AS SUCH THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE PD OF HEAVIEST PRECIP THRU

THE FCST RGN.

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND LIKELY A BETTER HANDLE WILL BE EXIST

AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST

0Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED WARMER...SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE 0Z GEM. BUT AM

NOT CONFIDENT WARM AIR WILL PRESS SO FAR INTO THE INTERIOR WITH

ANTICIPATED COLD AIR IN PLACE...SO HAVE NEGATED THE MDL SOLN.

BEYOND THURS MORN...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEWD THRU THE SERN CANADIAN

PROVINCES AND STRONG NWLY WINDS FOR LATE THURS INTO FRI USHERING

MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE RGN. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES

THRU THE NERN CONUS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CHC PRECIP AND

CLOUDS TO LINGER THRU THE WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Well, the 06z GFS is still a puker unless you're in PHL.

Glad to have something to track. Look like it could be pretty good. I'll be comfortable with the EC. Nice to have returned from 83* Jamaica to the wintry landscape. I wonder how clear the snowblower will make my driveway with the ice from earlier in the week. Took a look out the window. Generator is BURIED. Guess I know what I'm doing this morning.

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Trend it in a little further and bring a smile to GC!

I much prefer Miller B's from a forecating perspective. Seems so much more can go wrong with an A--at least for this neck of the woods.

You'd do fine with a BM track...esp with a storm this size.

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Lots of beers last night at a sledding party at a friends lol..I met a dude from Burrilville, RI..didn't know anyone actually lived there. I told him it was a great snow spot and he told me they had 58 inches in the Blizz of 78..Is that true??

Anyway..mid week storm looks like a monster..still worried about the west track with Euro over Block Island

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will any windex threat sunday?

also looks like cape cod....(maybe ann as well) could have some OES Later this weekend. potential accums ?

Looks marginal...best moisture is north of the pike...lacking a good LI spike, but LL lapse rates are good and PVA is good, so there could be something...but probably not a band of heavy squalls.

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