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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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This wont be the HECS of 96,03,2010,83 but i think it will fall into the same category as Jan 25,2000 and the 1987 storm.

The fact that nobody is prepared for this storm is what is going to make it interesting around these parts. Should I tell my boss in Richmond to expect snow on my 10 AM call? Haha.

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Doesn't the NAM tend to be wetter than most models? I feel like we may need to tone done the accum projections until the 12z Euro/GFS verify. Not saying it's impossible, I mean 0z guidance was showing this too, but the way this winter has gone I need to be ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE lol

The Euro has been wet consistently

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Doesn't the NAM tend to be wetter than most models? I feel like we may need to tone done the accum projections until the 12z Euro/GFS verify. Not saying it's impossible, I mean 0z guidance was showing this too, but the way this winter has gone I need to be ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE lol

please read through this thread from last night, check out the red taggers thoughts, take a glance at the consistency of the Euro with qpf in terms of amounts, and draw your own conclusions. There is nothing anyone can say that will make it snow, or that can assure you it will snow.

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Doesn't the NAM tend to be wetter than most models? I feel like we may need to tone done the accum projections until the 12z Euro/GFS verify. Not saying it's impossible, I mean 0z guidance was showing this too, but the way this winter has gone I need to be ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE lol

Usually, but the Euro has actually had the most juice this storm and it is not known as being particularly wet. 00z had pretty good agreement on a high precip event and hopefully 12z will hold.

Regardless, this is the NAMs money range and seeing as its been pretty good this year, you have to be encouraged.

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Yes I was able to draw that conclusion myself...was wondering if someone more informed than I could explain why people are confident in this eventual Nward trend

Oh, you wanted to know why it would come north, not what happens when it does.... sorry you didn't ask it that way.

From my experience and I am no met, these things tend to trend north as it gets closer. But yes, perhaps someone else, say Ian or Wes can explain why that happens.

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Usually, but the Euro has actually had the most juice this storm and it is not known as being particularly wet. 00z had pretty good agreement on a high precip event and hopefully 12z will hold.

Regardless, this is the NAMs money range and seeing as its been pretty good this year, you have to be encouraged.

The short-range NAM low track has done well, but the trailing QPF (NW/W of the low) has been overdone in many cases this season (by a considerable amount in some areas), so these high QPF results have to be scrutinized a bit.

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Oh, you wanted to know why it would come north, not what happens when it does.... sorry you didn't ask it that way.

From my experience and I am no met, these things tend to trend north as it gets closer. But yes, perhaps someone else, say Ian or Wes can explain why that happens.

there's usually a drift.. im not exactly sure why. without the uber block in an optimal position and given the more progressive nature it seems it would want to try to lift north a tad. this has been fairly locked in so it might not be much or at all. i was nervous it was a little too good last night so im personally happy to see it back south a bit for now.

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