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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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Check out the individual SREF members from earlier this morning. Lots of spread on QPF. The best run (ARW2) gives 1.75-2 in to DC area SE and 1.5-1.75 to the rest of the B/W metros, while the worst (ETA3) gives .1-.25 to the northern parts of MD's northernmost counties and .25-.5 most everywhere else in the B/W metro areas. Despite the near-unified consensus on 0z, this morning's runs should show folks that there are still some track and QPF uncertainties.

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That's still an impressive mean on the sref.

No doubt (albeit a bit lower than the 0z suite). I just wanted to show the spread, too. There's been a some discussion about the importance of not overlooking it, and the 0z suite to my relative newbie eyes looked quite unified in its guidance, while at least the individual members of the SREF show some variance. Haven't peeked at the GFS Ensembles from last night yet.

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Sometimes I think that people here think that LWX actually determines whether a storm will occur based on whether they issue a watch. It's as if LWX is controlling what will happen. Guess what? The quality posters and commenters on this Board have just as good a probability of being correct as LWX.

This Board already issued a Watch if you just read the trends of the comments. That's better news to be than whatever LWX decides to issue. Just my $.02.

Yes, but most people are not on this board. Don't they have a right to know something other than a rain storm may be coming? But your right, it really doesn't matter at this stage what LWX does. But I have not been overly impressed with some of their decisions this year. Last year, they were great and always a step ahead, IMO. This year, they have issued several watches that seemed way premature and based on overly optomistic snowfall estimates -- none of which verified.

And when there was a serious situation -- the ice storm two weeks ago - they didn't issue a warning until almost 11 p.m. four hours after it began and after most people went to bed. But I accept your overall point, and will give up my mini-crusade for a watch.

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I do not know how data is assimilated on the SREF for initialization, so should we view the SREF as follow-up support for the previous runs, or preview of the next?

dude..can you believe we have been talking about the psuhoffman storm since Jan 17. 8 days and counting. Only a fool would think models are bad. The fact that this storm has been on the radar this long is a testament to models

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Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts

The last couple of days seem to have had a string of first-posters trickle in and ask IMBY questions...

Don't know why the Storm Mode link is still not working despite people bringing it up yesterday. :(

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SREF just came out, they trended south from 3z but not nearly as much as 6z NAM/GFS did. .5 gets back to about HGR to York, they look great for the nw suburbs of DC and Baltimore...not so much up my way.

this is actually good news because all winter long in the last 24 hours, there have been north trends and will probably be another north trend at 00z based on what we have seen this year.

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Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts

Hi! Welcome to the board.

Your local NWS office should have a discussion that will give you some better insight on what to expect for your area. Also, please continue reading through the threads... I'm sure there is plenty of information to answer your question. I personally do not know your area well, so I cannot answer your question directly... but hopefully I have pointed you in the right direction.

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I wish sometime people would do their own analysis than taking everything LWX says at face-value. HOw about reading HPC map of 70 percent chance of more than 4 inches, or every model in 00z suite that showed the area approaching double digit accumulations -- after the rain. I am not saying that is going to verify, but don't sit here and act like you are the only one who reads.

You were the one complaining about LWX having not issued a WSW. Mapgirl was simply pointing out that LWX explains why in their very own discussion.

I would expect that they will start to issue watches for **SOME** parts of the area later this afternoon. You just need to chill.

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Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts

If you've read the thread, you'd see nobody has a good idea of what will happen anywhere yet. It could be heavy precip or just moderate; it could rain or could snow.... Way too early for those kinds of questions, weather channel is what you should look at lol

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If you've read the thread, you'd see nobody has a good idea of what will happen anywhere yet. It could be heavy precip or just moderate; it could rain or could snow.... Way too early for those kinds of questions, weather channel is what you should look at lol

Please do not point the poster towards the weather channel. That's just silly.

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I understand no WSW...but not even a Hazardous weather outlook? The NWS is clowning hard right now...

I would imagine they are holding off for one more run of consistency after 6z scaled precip back. If 12z is a hit, expect watches/warnings to be posted.

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It's been well below freezing for what, the last 96 hours or more? Does the ground warm up that fast?

Depends on insolation, RH during the warmup, the amount of liquid precip that interacts with the frozen ground and, of course, the duration of each. The same high RH or insolation that can quickly destroy a snow field acts on frozen ground nearly the same.

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this is actually good news because all winter long in the last 24 hours, there have been north trends and will probably be another north trend at 00z based on what we have seen this year.

depends Ji, its not really a trend south its that the last few runs before 6z were really winding the low up better and more consolidated with the upper features right at our lattitude so the CCB blew up right over us and really just thumped for 6 hours before swinging northeast. Now the 6z and latest SREF backed off on that idea and again keep the surface low seperate and slide it out, then slide the upper low through a few hours later. So we are back to what we had before last nights runs, just the upper energy sliding east behind the surface storm. Not a bad solution for you but now the 10" idea that was on the table with the 0z runs. Furthermore, that solutions is pretty bad for my area, because the H5 is going to track a little too far south for me to get really heavy precip from that alone, if the slp doesnt get going in time to get the ccb in here I am probably getting fringed up here. However, it is just one run and could easily shift back at 12 or 0z.

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