Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 when the euro is your wet model...you know the NAM qpf has a chance to even go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I hate to jinx this, and it's early, but doesn't this have the potential of being the biggest all encompassing DC to Boston snowstorm in years? I guess maybe March 2009 hit everybody, but don't know for sure. Before that, maybe the Valentines one in 2007? I'm pretty sure Boston didn't get in on Dec. 19 from what I remember. Yes they did, Boston got about 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I hate to jinx this, and it's early, but doesn't this have the potential of being the biggest all encompassing DC to Boston snowstorm in years? I guess maybe March 2009 hit everybody, but don't know for sure. Before that, maybe the Valentines one in 2007? I'm pretty sure Boston didn't get in on Dec. 19 from what I remember. Dec 19,2009...didnt that hit boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I stand corrected. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know I asked before, but can someone with access give info for FDK per Euro.......QPF and all snow? Thanks. FDK is about 1.20...all precip falls with temps under 0 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Add to the list of fun. Again - I am a good 30 miles EAST of the freezing line. Go WEST, young man. 1) I am no young man. I am old 2) Under no conditions do I get to go west. Therefore it is safe to assume: Part of this storm shall be liquid - RAIN - for me. Just call me MIXY. I get 1-3 inches of snow, MAYBE. After model qpf reductions - I probably get 1-2 inches. So I go with about 1.5 inches. That's still enough to shovel. Now if you live in Winchester VA or at elevation - That's a whole 'nother ball 'o wax. You're gonna get a foot or more of fresh pow. Those folks won't see a lick of rainfall til late July. Too damned COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FDK is about 1.20...all precip falls with temps under 0 at 850 Thanks. Appreciate it, Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 that's a great map for this range. i wish it was tomorrow night but im psyched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I hate to jinx this, and it's early, but doesn't this have the potential of being the biggest all encompassing DC to Boston snowstorm in years? I guess maybe March 2009 hit everybody, but don't know for sure. Before that, maybe the Valentines one in 2007? I'm pretty sure Boston didn't get in on Dec. 19 from what I remember. but there's no high1!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DC still seems to be a battleground of sorts. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Nothing for capitol hill, and over 1 foot for upper northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DC still seems to be a battleground of sorts. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Nothing for capitol hill, and over 1 foot for upper northwest? as long as it's not the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This board is going to explode tomorrow. Should be a recorder setter I would think. The funny thing is 99.989 percent of the population in this area have no idea anything other than a rain storm or 1 to 3 inch-type storm is possible. They are going to wake up to winter storm watches, and very, very, very confused morning weather casters who will basically not know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Westminster: 1.23 all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This board is going to explode tomorrow. Should be a recorder setter I would think. The funny thing is 99.989 percent of the population in this area have no idea anything other than a rain storm or 1 to 3 inch-type storm is possible. They are going to wake up to winter storm watches, and very, very, very confused morning weather casters who will basically not know what to say This is what January 25 is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historynerd Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is it looking good for at least 6'' between I-95 and the Blue Ridge in North Virginia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This board is going to explode tomorrow. Should be a recorder setter I would think. The funny thing is 99.989 percent of the population in this area have no idea anything other than a rain storm or 1 to 3 inch-type storm is possible. They are going to wake up to winter storm watches, and very, very, very confused morning weather casters who will basically not know what to say One would hope they have been paying attention. The 0Z suite was not even close to the first to suggest a threat. Honestly the TV weathercasters who still have all rain should be fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DC still seems to be a battleground of sorts. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Nothing for capitol hill, and over 1 foot for upper northwest? Northwest DC is the place to be for this one. I wish things were different, but it's all about where you live. If I lived in Leesburg VA I'd be super excited and I would not sleep until Saturday. Leesburg04 will be digging out until late June. Those drifts are going to be devastating up there. I live well EAST of the 540 line at h85. I'll sleep BETTER than a baby tonight - This will be no biggie for me, maybe an inch lol. Sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One would hope they have been paying attention. The 0Z suite was not even close to the first to suggest a threat. Honestly the TV weathercasters who still have all rain should be fired. Well, I think most of DC's should be fired. I didn't watch anyone cause I knew they would be useless, but reports on here suggested almost none in DC or Baltimore market suggested anything other than rain storm with perhaps an inch or two of snow was possible from what I understand -- as late as 11 p.m. newscast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is it looking good for at least 6'' between I-95 and the Blue Ridge in North Virginia? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is what January 25 is all about. this is nothing like Jan 25. The euro had a major storm for us for many runs and once the american models started showing colder temps...you knew the euro was a bit warm but still had the great qpf...it was kind of easy to see that we were heading down this path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One would hope they have been paying attention. The 0Z suite was not even close to the first to suggest a threat. Honestly the TV weathercasters who still have all rain should be fired. outside a burp with the nam and gfs yesterday the 500 track has been more or less locked for 60 hours+. thermals are an issue but the signs that things would go colder were present as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, I think most of DC's should be fired. I didn't watch anyone cause I knew they would be useless, but reports on here suggested almost none in DC or Baltimore market suggested anything other than rain storm with perhaps an inch or two of snow was possible from what I understand -- as late as 11 p.m. newscast. That is awful. Somebody mentioned a guy who suggested 3-6", but I don't remember if that was for Baltimore or DC. Either way--I am interested in seeing how much the TV-Casters change their tune or if they try to "slowly" up the threat level to make it seem as if they didn't bust so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this is nothing like Jan 25. The euro had a major storm for us for many runs and once the american models started showing colder temps...you knew the euro was a bit warm but still had the great qpf...it was kind of easy to see that we were heading down this path I'm talking more about the public's reaction than the synoptic issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no. hpc ~50% odds.. that's pretty good for 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 hpc ~50% odds.. that's pretty good for 6"+ lol..i think he is pulling the kids leg. 6 is between ellenwoods 4-8 call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 outside a burp with the nam and gfs yesterday the 500 track has been more or less locked for 60 hours+. thermals are an issue but the signs that things would go colder were present as well. Even low end threats had 2-4" with crappy ratios--I don't know where they got all rain from. The changeover threat has been on the table for days. These TV folks are pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 lol..i think he is pulling the kids leg. 6 is between ellenwoods 4-8 call i dont think he even had much to the west of the cities at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 after this storm, if it pans out, there will be a much worse snow hole than us. State College euro gives them .20 qpf all snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That is awful. Somebody mentioned a guy who suggested 3-6", but I don't remember if that was for Baltimore or DC. Either way--I am interested in seeing how much the TV-Casters change their tune or if they try to "slowly" up the threat level to make it seem as if they didn't bust so bad. I think it was Tasslemeyer in Baltimore. I used to live there, he's pretty good so that would make sense he caught on. He was the one who went all in Feb. 6 for like 20 to 30 inches hours and hours or days before any else. Will be interesting how they handle it. I assume a lot will depend on what the morning runs show and if they hold. And, frankly, there is no way they are going to go on the air talking about a possible foot storm for fear of bust. My guess is they, as well as LWX, start preparing people for a possible 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 inch storm and see if it needs to be upped later in the day before the 6 p.m. news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Even low end threats had 2-4" with crappy ratios--I don't know where they got all rain from. The changeover threat has been on the table for days. These TV folks are pathetic. What surprised me was not even a mention for accumulating snows in the western suburbs which are less certain to mix. The NBC 4 guy said "maybe Northern Montgomery county for some accumulating snow". He also said we had no chance of accumulating snow because the ground would be too wet from the rain. I am not sure where he got his "BS" degree in meteorology from... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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