Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Not bad though I think the Eastern edge will need to be moved a hair East when its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It feels great to be waking up to thunder and talking about OFBs in November. The residual boundary across north central IL is actually pretty intriguing. Let's see what a couple more hours sunshine can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That is good to see. Originally I was thinking initiation might hold off until 22-00z but it doesn't appear that's going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 1000 CAPE now with sunshine in northern/ne MO per SPC meso page. The pot is cooking. Elevated convection in MIchiana rapidly moving ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 there she goes convection really increasing last few scans on radar...looking good on VIS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 221650Z - 221815Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND WRN IL AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW AND CNTRL/NE MO IN AN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG RANGE FROM NEAR JOPLIN MO NNEWD TO AROUND DAVENPORT IA. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSING A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND WRN IL. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES CALCULATED AT 50 TO 60 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 11/22/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The cells south of Ottumwa have really ramped up over the last several scans. Looking like full initiation already underway. With surface cape already pushing 1000j/kg we don't really need any additional insolation anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Taking a look at the HRRR max updraft helicity, would suggest the greatest threat is from the QCA south and east (shocker). I would think as far as the tornado threat goes we're looking at brief spin ups, but in the vicinity of that boundary there is the potential for something a little more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This is looking like yet another day where the radar hole over northeast Missouri really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 600 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FROM ERN IA INTO NRN MO. AIR MASS IS NOW MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE...HOWEVER SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO WI AND EWD NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 We're getting an 18z special sounding going, I believe ILX is doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 We're getting an 18z special sounding going, I believe ILX is doing the same. Excellent! Can't wait to see what they show. The QC is actually sitting in a pretty decent location. Already 68/60 here east of them. Triple point passing just to the north over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 How does this look for STL? I am 75 now and still sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Tornado Watch 774 issued with 50/30 tornado probs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0744.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'll likely head west towards Dixon in a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That discrete cell just north of Keokuk has to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 On 80 west now, agree with joe that the keokuk cell has to be watched which is now svr warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 first warnings.. also SPI at 75/58 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1157 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... EAST CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1230 PM CST. * AT 1155 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR MONTROSE...OR NEAR NAUVOO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 sup comp at 12...sig tor at 4....and 0-1 EHI at 5 per meso analysis....I wont even say what 0-1 SRH is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That is looking quite nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Three body scatter spike out of the south end of that cell. There's going to be some large hail..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 2 hail inch reported, lapse rates are obviously steeper then progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 2 hail inch reported, lapse rates are obviously steeper then progged low level lapse rates between 7 and 7.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Lapse rates on BUFKIT (12z NAM) between 700-500mb are 7.5-8C/km, with 50% or so of the total column CAPE within the hail growth region. Also: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Click "Simulated Reflectivity and Simulated Composite Reflectivity". It is about 1-2 hours behind on initiation and propagation, so make the adjustments accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 RFD BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It looks like the storm straddling Henderson County, IL and Des Moines County, IA is undergoing a split... with the left split becoming the dominant updraft. The hail threat should increase with that storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It looks like the storm straddling Henderson County, IL and Des Moines County, IA is undergoing a split... with the left split becoming the dominant updraft. The hail threat should increase with that storm..... Or maybe not..... It might just weaken altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z DVN sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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