Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I still have to keep reminding myself that it doesn't take as much moisture / instability in the cold season to have svr wx as long as the dynamics are there than it does in the spring and summer. I broadbrush things by thinking that dews in the 50's are ok for t storms but I need dews in the 60's for tornadoes, which may work in spring and summer but not necessarily in this season. Not to drag the thread too OT but here is a case from 11/12/65 which produced several strong tornadoes in northern IL/northwest IN. Here are a couple maps courtesy of Bangladesh Tornadoes: Surface map: Fairly deep low (deeper than today at least) but the temps/dewpoints don't really jump out at you. Instability probably wasn't that high. The result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The tornado we shot was just north of the intersection of Hunter and Ryan roads northwest of Chemung. It lifted shortly thereafter at least for a bit, perhaps dropping again in Lawrence per NWS preliminary storm reports. We got some "damage" pictures to trees and one steel highway sign post as the sun set and talked to a homeowner, who mentioned the January 2008 storm going through his yard on a very similar track. This line today was maybe 50 yards further south at least at that point, but also on the southwest to northeast trajectory. Eerily similar in the track. I'm guessing the width was maybe twenty yards where we were. Strength of EF0. Still having an issue uploading pics. Maybe it's my firefox. Here we go. Radar capture showing approximate observed path (thin black line) and our position during the tornado. The wall cloud and tornado itself was well contrasted. After moving for about twenty seconds at the width in the pictures below, it did lift. Rotation with the wall cloud itself continued, although video of that did not turn out too visible, outside of rapidly moving rain curtains. 'Damage path' as detailed in the picture. Steel highway sign post. A closer view of the soft wood tree damage, on both edges of the field. The house I referenced from 2008 is just off the frame to the north (left) of those pines. It is late in the year and with many of the fields harvested and tilled and bare trees, there wasn't much vegetation to be pulled airborne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 230109Z - 230215Z THE THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING CONVECTION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM N OF HOT TO BVX. 00Z LIT SOUNDING INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 720 MB. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND MOISTENING ALONG SRN EXTENSION OF SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ MAY SUPPORT EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-RESOLVING MODEL GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /REF. 00Z LIT SOUNDING AND CURRENT VWP DATA/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ELSEWHERE...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR COLD FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT E OF MKO MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EWD INTO NWRN AR WHERE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED IN THE LOW-LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I also gotta give props to TornadoTony. He nailed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 800 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM UNTIL 300 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM UNTIL 400 AM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG SW-NE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE...AND STORMS ALONG FRONTAL BAND FARTHER NW...EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TUE AS REGION IS GLANCED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING KS. STRONG WIND FIELD WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND CONTINUED LOW-LL MOISTURE INFLOW NNEWD THROUGH THE MS VLY...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND /MAINLY WITH PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY/...A COUPLE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I can't really say that I'm not surprised at the tornadoes today as it was very similar to that January 2008 set up in a lot of ways. What surprises me somewhat is the apparent strength a couple of these tornadoes had...but as others have said its all relative to the surface and aloft. I'd imagine we had some pretty low LCL's from looking at some of the pics and therefore the tremendous shear and the little bit of instability combined with the low LCL's was enough to do the trick. We are very fortunate to have not heard about fatalities and that is certainly something to be thankful about as we celebrate our holiday this week. My heart goes out to those that lost their homes, however. Its sad to see that happen. To OceanSt- I can't wait to see those pics of that wall cloud feature you referenced earlier. That should be an interesting picture or set of pictures. I know these things basically fired up right on top of us literally. We are lucky here the front was a bit fast otherwise we could have had some dangerous stuff to be dealing with. I just got home so I am catching up on things and looking at information. I was on the site at work but only briefly as there were other things I had to tend to. Ohio Valley/Southern Lakes may get to deal with a similar set up again Wed/Wed Night. Should be interesting. Now if we follow that 2008 pattern we should be getting our major snowstorm in about two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I can't really say that I'm not surprised at the tornadoes today as it was very similar to that January 2008 set up in a lot of ways. What surprises me somewhat is the apparent strength a couple of these tornadoes had...but as others have said its all relative to the surface and aloft. I'd imagine we had some pretty low LCL's from looking at some of the pics and therefore the tremendous shear and the little bit of instability combined with the low LCL's was enough to do the trick. We are very fortunate to have not heard about fatalities and that is certainly something to be thankful about as we celebrate our holiday this week. My heart goes out to those that lost their homes, however. Its sad to see that happen. To OceanSt- I can't wait to see those pics of that wall cloud feature you referenced earlier. That should be an interesting picture or set of pictures. I know these things basically fired up right on top of us literally. We are lucky here the front was a bit fast otherwise we could have had some dangerous stuff to be dealing with. I just got home so I am catching up on things and looking at information. I was on the site at work but only briefly as there were other things I had to tend to. Ohio Valley/Southern Lakes may get to deal with a similar set up again Wed/Wed Night. Should be interesting. Now if we follow that 2008 pattern we should be getting our major snowstorm in about two weeks Yeah I think I might have a fun shift Thursday, if I didn't just put the hex on it. Very similar to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Nothing severe, but has to be easy 40MPH+ gusts here as the line of storms have arrived in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah I think I might have a fun shift Thursday, if I didn't just put the hex on it. Very similar to today. Looks like areas from Ohio into Western PA really needs to watch for a very similar set up to today's, on a major holiday which may have some serious consequences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 yes, enjoy that patrick, should've said thurs too since northern ohio/southern michigan southward could be an interesting zone thanksgiving day. I wonder though if the stronger impulse in the mid and upper levels will shoot more up across WI/IL and leave the actual areas more warmer/moist/slightly unstable with a bit less support aloft than today though. I have a feeling that might be what happens. Perhaps more of a marginal wind/hail threat and not so much tornadoes, but we got a day or two to see how that evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Looks like areas from Ohio into Western PA really needs to watch for a very similar set up to today's, on a major holiday which may have some serious consequences I'd say more so Kentucky into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. I don't think eastern Ohio and western Penn would get convection until after 03z....If you look at 850 the LLJ is pointed at KTOL at 00z, and seeing that the best convection tends to occur along the left edge of the LLJ it would imply a further west threat area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'd say more so Kentucky into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. I don't think eastern Ohio and western Penn would get convection until after 03z....If you look at 850 the LLJ is pointed at KTOL at 00z, and seeing that the best convection tends to occur along the left edge of the LLJ it would imply a further west threat area. Just saying that the models shift slight bit the threat changes, but to be on the safe side, my area could be across the OV Valley, you know how bad it could be if even one strong tornado hits during a major holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 yes, enjoy that patrick, should've said thurs too since northern ohio/southern michigan southward could be an interesting zone thanksgiving day. I wonder though if the stronger impulse in the mid and upper levels will shoot more up across WI/IL and leave the actual areas more warmer/moist/slightly unstable with a bit less support aloft than today though. I have a feeling that might be what happens. Perhaps more of a marginal wind/hail threat and not so much tornadoes, but we got a day or two to see how that evolves. Yeah I can agree with that Justin....and you forgot the "X FACTOR'....I'M ON SHIFT....whenever stebo or I am working it deflects around us....case and point today.... KLAN and KFNT have had multiple TS obs....and as it got within 60SM of me the LTG disappeared....just as it does with stebo....metro and the FAA should pay us extra for improving air ops....OUR SHEILDS ALWAYS HOLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah I can agree with that Justin....and you forgot the "X FACTOR'....I'M ON SHIFT....whenever stebo or I am working it deflects around us....case and point today.... KLAN and KFNT have had multiple TS obs....and as it got within 60SM of me the LTG disappeared....just as it does with stebo....metro and the FAA should pay us extra for improving air ops....OUR SHEILDS ALWAYS HOLD. I personally don't mind when the storms go north or south, though you have to remember I was here when we had hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Just saying that the models shift slight bit the threat changes, but to be on the safe side, my area could be across the OV Valley, you know how bad it could be if even one strong tornado hits during a major holiday I agree with Justin with the dynamics being further removed to the west (more dis-placed than today) I have reservations right now about any severe chance, and am just making a "first guess" based on what I would expect with the LLVL theta advection, but without looking at other model data and thermodynamics yet it is just a "first guess". Based on the jet LLVL fields I would definitely think further west. I do see the 50kts at 850 at 18z pointing into the area you mentioned, but by 00z it "re-orientates" itself and believe the action would be along the front and along any rise/fall pressure couplet as expected similar to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I personally don't mind when the storms go north or south, though you have to remember I was here when we had hail. Yeah Steve but I liked doing my two funnel cloud obs this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree with Justin with the dynamics being further removed to the west (more dis-placed than today) I have reservations right now about any severe chance, and am just making a "first guess" based on what I would expect with the LLVL theta advection, but without looking at other model data and thermodynamics yet it is just a "first guess". Based on the jet LLVL fields I would definitely think further west. I do see the 50kts at 850 at 18z pointing into the area you mentioned, but by 00z it "re-orientates" itself and believe the action would be along the front and along any rise/fall pressure couplet as expected similar to today. Let the waiting game begin!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I agree with Justin with the dynamics being further removed to the west (more dis-placed than today) I have reservations right now about any severe chance, and am just making a "first guess" based on what I would expect with the LLVL theta advection, but without looking at other model data and thermodynamics yet it is just a "first guess". Based on the jet LLVL fields I would definitely think further west. I do see the 50kts at 850 at 18z pointing into the area you mentioned, but by 00z it "re-orientates" itself and believe the action would be along the front and along any rise/fall pressure couplet as expected similar to today. It's almost like you did that on purpose. Hard to argue with the best threat being south/east though barring the unlikely scenario of something trending back toward the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Let the waiting game begin!!!!! Yeah pretty much....but at least we have some interesting stuff to watch and wait for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 http://fb.me/KiCknUyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Here's some up close footage of the tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It's almost like you did that on purpose. Hard to argue with the best threat being south/east though barring the unlikely scenario of something trending back toward the 12z NAM. I disagree ....to me it's easy to argue that based on the LLJ....and further east would be further away from the mid and upper level dynamics....but we shall see....I still think the highlighted area would be the spot IF IT OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Here's some up close footage of the tornado. Very impressive video! The individual who filmed this maintained his composure and had a steady hand. This is some of the better tornado video I've seen this year that was taken from an amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Very impressive video! The individual who filmed this maintained his composure and had a steady hand. This is some of the better tornado video I've seen this year that was taken from an amateur. Yeah that was a pretty pretty impressive tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah that was a pretty pretty impressive tornado. Yeah it was and I agree great video....Here is a link with damage video from the Caledonia tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Monday the 29th (my birthday) also looks decent in the same area again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Managed to grab those photos from north of Davenport. The photo of the wall cloud is looking SW, with the WFO located to the left out of the shot. So from our view we could see the RFD clear slot wrapping around with a low contrast wall cloud tucked back inside it. The RFD clear slot showed up nicely once the storms went through, as evidenced by the picture showing blue sky and a backlit updraft tower. The funnel shot was from the turbulent RFD, a shear funnel (not associated with a meso). We could not see this from the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Managed to grab those photos from north of Davenport. The photo of the wall cloud is looking SW, with the WFO located to the left out of the shot. So from our view we could see the RFD clear slot wrapping around with a low contrast wall cloud tucked back inside it. The RFD clear slot showed up nicely once the storms went through, as evidenced by the picture showing blue sky and a backlit updraft tower. The funnel shot was from the turbulent RFD, a shear funnel (not associated with a meso). We could not see this from the office. Very nice pics....bet you will see those in the spotter training video for your office CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Per Dr. Forbes, the last November tornado in Wisconsin occurred in 1971. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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