tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Just as an FYI, the last time there were two months in a row that had significant tornadoes in the LOT CWA was April and May 2004. The last time two significant tornado events occurred within a month of each other in the CWA was 8/5 and 8/18/79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 You know, when I was comparing yesterday to 1/7/08, I didn't think we'd have a nearly identical result like this...this borders on the absurd... Yeah its pretty crazy, hell this tornado crossed the 08 one's path twice, and I wouldn't doubt again up in WI too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 gonna save that map to my computer would be curious to see how that path length ranks for tornadoes in the LOT CWA in november. The longest of the 11/12/65 tornadoes had a path length of 35.9 miles, so though yesterday's was respectable, it falls quite a bit short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 We were faced with the same decision as LOT on 6/5/10. The Magnolia tornado took down a cell tower and we rated it 135 mph too. Sometimes it's the context of the damage. If the tower is taken down but a structure around it is undamaged, it is unlikely that an EF3 tornado came through. This happens quite a bit with the poorly built houses. They may be wiped clean off the foundation, yet a car is still in the driveway, or a flagpole is still erect, or the tree in the front yard doesn't have a leaf out of place. Yeah I can see where that would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 2 EF1 Tornadoes Confirmed in Southern Mississippi from a brief supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I don't like severe weather this time of year. There isn't enough daylight and no leaves on the trees to make high winds interesting. I guess a tornado would still be good if it occurs during the few hours of daylight this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Just as an FYI, the last time there were two months in a row that had significant tornadoes in the LOT CWA was April and May 2004. The last time two significant tornado events occurred within a month of each other in the CWA was 8/5 and 8/18/79. And who would of thought the next time it happened was Oct/Nov....simply amazing. Also wouldn't of guess that for the two tornado warnings issued this year for my county would of been in Oct/Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Going to wait until the 0z runs to say more about tomorrow but think there could be some nice tornadic supercells in eastern OK/southern MO/western AR. Same strength of mid-level jet nearing 85kts, nice looking theta-e axis nosing into the area after 18z with dew points in the low/mid 60's across the warm sector. Bulk shear and low-level shear will be pretty impressive tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Going to wait until the 0z runs to say more about tomorrow but think there could be some nice tornadic supercells in eastern OK/southern MO/western AR. Same strength of mid-level jet nearing 85kts, nice looking theta-e axis nosing into the area after 18z with dew points in the low/mid 60's across the warm sector. Bulk shear and low-level shear will be pretty impressive tomorrow. Yeah, I haven't been paying much attention since I am in winter weather mode. But it looks like there could be some big storms here tomorrow if we can get enough instability. The cold front should undercut any storms along the actual front, but I'm not sure about earlier in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 0z NAM showing even more instablity and dew points in the upper 60's in eastern OK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'd certainly be watching Eastern OK, SW MO, and W AR tomorrow evening. Things kind of coming together nicely for a decent potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'd certainly be watching Eastern OK, SW MO, and W AR tomorrow evening. Things kind of coming together nicely for a decent potential. Severe T-storms, followed by a bit of ice and snow as it ends. Sounds about right for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yeah, if the NAM instability trends are correct, ern OK and wrn AR could be in a world of hurt tomorrow...looks like a long, sustained period of threat that could last into the night...will have to reevaluate in the morning...FWIW, GFS has the main threat lesser and further S, while the SPC WRF paints some decent updraft helicities in cells in ern KS and SW MO, so yeah, precision from our lovely models is out the window...oh and there are 68F Td to I-20 at this hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yeah, if the NAM instability trends are correct, ern OK and wrn AR could be in a world of hurt tomorrow...looks like a long, sustained period of threat that could last into the night...will have to reevaluate in the morning...FWIW, GFS has the main threat lesser and further S, while the SPC WRF paints some decent updraft helicities in cells in ern KS and SW MO, so yeah, precision from our lovely models is out the window...oh and there are 68F Td to I-20 at this hour... We're already talking about this personally, but given how far north those high dewpoints are already, the fact that we are dealing with a straight WSW jet from the higher elevations to advect that EML overtop the moisture axis... and the general performance of the NAM and SPC WRF, in comparison to the GFS, with yesterday's event.... I'm willing to lean toward their solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yeah I would have to agree that the NAM is going to have a better handle on this, GFS is just bias towards climo too much. I would be hard pressed to believe its going to be only near 60 tomorrow at 00z in a major portion of E/NE OK. Again look at how well the NAM handled the event yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 This is what I just posted over on my website. Keep in mind this was specifically written for those who live in the Oklahoma/Texas region. I'll be out tomorrow chasing what looks to be adding up as a possible tornado outbreak. Thus is fall in the southern plains... We're talking about a potential severe weather event in late November, on the busiest travel day of the year. Welcome to La Nina folks! We've been watching tomorrow on the models now for several days. Beginning yesterday the models began hinting on increased amounts of instability being present for Wednesday's event, and tonight's 0Z NAM really spiked up the values. Lets take a detailed look into what might be a considerable severe weather threat tomorrow. The two maps above, each from 6 PM Central tonight, show the rapidly changing weather conditions across the United States. A very deep trough is digging into the Western US. This is allowing for very cold air bottled up in Canada and the Arctic Circle to invade the Untied States. At the time of posting, Salt Lake City had broken a one hour snow record with a major blizzard was underway. Temperatures in South Dakota will be hard-pressed to reach zero for the next few days. Although the winter affects won't be nearly as severe here in the south, we'll be dealing with our own issues as this very cold airmass collides with the unseasonably warm and moist environment in place over Texas and the deep-south tonight. Moisture return is underway across south tonight as a warm front lifts northward, bringing very moist conditions to areas that have generally been dry the past few days. By tomorrow afternoon, dewpoints above 63F should be located from Tulsa, Oklahoma eastward to Little Rock, Arkansas. This is a moist environment for the springtime, and combining it with the volatility of a winter system will definitely bring the potential for severe weather issues. This is undoubtly the strongest system we've faced so far this winter season here in the south. Winds at 500 MB will be over 75 knots from the southwest over most of Oklahoma, combine that with a 45 knot low level jet at 850 from the south-southwest, most storms tomorrow will rotate with ease. Winds at 925 MB are forecasted to be at 30 knots out of the due south, with a south to southeasterly surface wind. This is the classic direction change you look for rotating storms and possible tornadoes. Now in most cases, the low level wind fields are too weak to support any low level rotation. This graphic shows the rotation potential in the lowest 1 KM of the atmosphere. Generally you'd look for numbers over 150 for possible tornadoes, with anything over 250-300 very significant. As noted in the graphic above, a maxima of 300+ is located over Eastern Oklahoma. Needless to say, the wind fields are supportive of tornadic activity tomorrow. In the winter time, the wind fields are usually favorable for tornadoes. It's just that there is no instability present and you're not able to get any organized convection. For the past several days it looked like tomorrow would be another one of those days with high shear but no instability, but that changed when the models began increasing the amount of instability present in the warm sector. In this high shear environment, any surface based instability over 1,000 joules is considerable, with 2,000 joules being a very significant number. The 3 KM CAPE, a number we look for when determining the instability in the lowest 3 KM of the atmosphere, is over 200 joules. If these numbers were to materialize, there would be a very high probability of severe weather including tornadoes. In fact, with the numbers being presented tonight, I would not be surprised at all if we ended up seeing a stronger tornado (EF2+) tomorrow afternoon in Eastern Oklahoma. The numbers given above are from one model, and models can and are wrong in some cases. The fact at hand is the setup tomorrow is looking more and more like a classic fall severe weather outbreak, and residents in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Southwest Missouri should have a plan of action ready in the event a severe cell approaches your area. Not only do we have a severe weather threat, but the NWS in Tulsa is forecasting a change-over to sleet and/or snow for parts of their area by tomorrow night. Winter's coming folks! We're going to be chasing tomorrow and the Live Stream/GPS will be online. For the latest information, including updates from in-the-field while chasing, follow us on Twitter or Facebook. The links are at the top right portion of this page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I should note that the NAM has over 300 J/Kg of 3 KM CAPE at 21Z. If a cell were to go up in that environment, we won't just be talking about a little EF1 tornado. I'm already having bells go off in my head with tomorrow. I really think we may end up ending the day wondering what the hell happened, kinda like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 SPC is pretty meh about it. They don't think instability will be that high and shear will rip the storms apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I should note that the NAM has over 300 J/Kg of 3 KM CAPE at 21Z. If a cell were to go up in that environment, we won't just be talking about a little EF1 tornado. I'm already having bells go off in my head with tomorrow. I really think we may end up ending the day wondering what the hell happened, kinda like yesterday. FWIW...think your better off using the 0-30mb Td map on our CoD site over the 2m Td map. Still a personal opinion on your part but Paul and others haven't liked that for awhile as its been wrong quite a few times and will likely be taken off the WRF page when we have our new CoD weather website in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 SPC is pretty meh about it. They don't think instability will be that high and shear will rip the storms apart. still 5% tor probs, they are aware of what happened yesterday...more instability with this setup then on mondays with the same mid-level jet strength, would think 0-6km shear would be close to the same. THOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE QUITE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.IN FACT...DEGREE OF SHEAR MAY BE DETRIMENTAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION -- TOO STRONG FOR THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.NONETHELESS...EXPECT A FEW STRONGER STORMS/SMALL-SCALE LINE SEGMENTS TO ORGANIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF MO...THOUGH THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY EXPECTED ATTM.OVERNIGHT...A DECREASE IN THE ALREADY LIMITED CAPE SUGGESTS A WANE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yeah, the SREF at 21z has CAPE levels, as a median, double what SPC says the max will be...good luck having the max be 500J/kg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The GFS is the most stable out of the bunch... and it still has higher dewpoints than Goss' outlook is calling for. Considering the NAM, SREF, and SPC WRF did better, when compared to the GFS, with Monday.... I don't like this. The latest available SPC SREF run on their site, for a mean value has double the MLCAPE at 21Z tomorrow over eastern OK.... that the 06Z Day 1 outlook cites.... Given how high the dewpoints already are in the warm sector, and the advection of the drier air aloft with the low amplitude flow... to help with cloud cover concerns.... someone had better wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 The GFS is the most stable out of the bunch... and it still has higher dewpoints than Goss' outlook is calling for. Considering the NAM, SREF, and SPC WRF did better, when compared to the GFS, with Monday.... I don't like this. The latest available SPC SREF run on their site, for a mean value has double the MLCAPE at 21Z tomorrow over eastern OK.... that the 06Z Day 1 outlook cites.... Given how high the dewpoints already are in the warm sector, and the advection of the drier air aloft with the low amplitude flow... to help with cloud cover concerns.... someone had better wake up. Would be nice to get a outlook written by Rich or Roger tomorrow, not to knock Goss at all, but those two are the best two severe weather forecasters IMO. The one good thing about the terrain tomorrow in the jungles of eastern OK is most of the leaves should be off the trees by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Would be nice to get a outlook written by Rich or Roger tomorrow, not to knock Goss at all, but those two are the best two severe weather forecasters IMO. The one good thing about the terrain tomorrow in the jungles of eastern OK is most of the leaves should be off the trees by now. I dunno, we still have a lot of leaves in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 a few obs showing low 60 dews in southern OK with a dew point of 37 in northeast OK, going to be some serious moisture return tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 a few obs showing low 60 dews in southern OK with a dew point of 37 in northeast OK, going to be some serious moisture return tomorrow. Oklahoma always has to be so extreme with everything. They can't ever do anything like normal folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yeah I'm definitely not buying the conservativeness on this outlook, especially when no model is as low as he is stating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yeah I'm definitely not buying the conservativeness on this outlook, especially when no model is as low as he is stating... Same. Although I do agree that shear might be a little strong. Bigger problems though should be the undercutting front and timing of initiation, which will be directly related to the timing of a morning disturbance that moves across the risk area. IMO higher risk areas are N of I-40... S/SW MO maybe under the gun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 SPC has upped TOR prob to 10% and now says MLCAPE of up to 1000 SPG AFD hinted at this saying MLCAPE 800-1200 possible with dewpoints in the low 60;s but higher if dewpoints are higher SPG was never buying SPC;s conservative outlook 06z outlook AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 335 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010 DISCUSSION A VERY ACTIVE 48 HOURS IS ON TAP AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE ARE GOING TO SEE ALL FOUR SEASONS OF WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS STARTING WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MEANWHILE...MASSIVE CHANGES IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THAT WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES NORTH OF THE AREA. SEE NO REASON WHY DEW POINTS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S...WITH MID 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS QUICK MODIFICATION TO THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT COULD BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES IN THE 700 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER IF MID 60 DEW POINTS CAN MAKE IT IN HERE. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF ERN OK NWRN AR...AND MUCH OF MO.... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MO/AR/OK BY THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED INTO NORTHEAST OK BY AFTERNOON. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN EASTERN OK/SOUTHWEST MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND MUCH OF MO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH MUCH OF OK/AR/MO RELATIVELY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE WARM SECTOR MAY RESULT IN A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MO. THESE WOULD POSE THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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