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Thanksgiving Week Severe Weather


msp

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Not to rant here or anything but I wish SN would get rid of wall cloud reports, more like not rotating wall cloud reports. They really dont mean much and I have seen people call something a wall cloud when its a shelf cloud or some scud under a base. IMO what matters is the clear slot and thats the real tell of tornadogenesis. Or report wall clouds if there are things going for it that would make it a tornadic wall cloud and not a lowering under a base that serves no purpose to report. If it had sfc based inflow, rapid vertical motion into it or scud sucking, persistent rotation, and then the development of a clear slot. I know Paul Sirvatka and Tyler Allison (head of Spotter Network) have been talking about doing this. They should have a clear slot icon, thats more help to the NWS than a not rotating wall cloud report IMO.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

612 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION

UPDATE

STRONG CONVECTION HAD ORGANIZED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS

FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS ALONG A PREFRONTAL

TROUGH. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED NORTH AND EAST AND

EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO NEAR WEST PLAINS.

MODEST INSTABILITY WAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH MIXED

LAYERED CAPES OF 500-700 J/KG AND 0-1 KM CAPE NEAR 300 J/KG IN

SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. LOW LEVEL HELCITIES WERE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE

WARM FRONT WITH DIMINISHING VALUES FARTHER WEST.

SUPERCELLS WITH PERSISTENT CIRCULATION WERE FOCUSED NEAR THE

INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO THE

SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY

PARAMETERS TO THE EAST...THESE STORMS WILL SHOW A GRADUAL

DIMINISHING TREND EAST OF THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE

INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE

PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF WICHITA TO NEAR ST.

JOSEPH MISSOURI. THIS FRONT WILL CATCH UP WITH THE PREFRONTAL

TROUGH BY EARLY EVENING THEN SURGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME CONGEALED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT

SWEEPS INTO THE OZARKS.

WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT

BUT INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND MAY BE A LIMITING

FACTOR TO SEVERE WEATHER.

OVERALL THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS

POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PITTSBURG

KANSAS TO VERSAILLES MISSOURI LINE. GIVEN THE EXTENT OF SHEAR AN

ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT IS POSSIBLE.

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Not to rant here or anything but I wish SN would get rid of wall cloud reports, more like not rotating wall cloud reports. They really dont mean much and I have seen people call something a wall cloud when its a shelf cloud or some scud under a base. IMO what matters is the clear slot and thats the real tell of tornadogenesis. Or report wall clouds if there are things going for it that would make it a tornadic wall cloud and not a lowering under a base that serves no purpose to report. If it had sfc based inflow, rapid vertical motion into it or scud sucking, persistent rotation, and then the development of a clear slot. I know Paul Sirvatka and Tyler Allison (head of Spotter Network) have been talking about doing this. They should have a clear slot icon, thats more help to the NWS than a not rotating wall cloud report IMO.

People mistaking clear slots would probably be pretty bad too.

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Thanks guys, so if that is the Norman sounding does that mean the balloon drifted towards the Tulsa area? Or, is there ripe somewhat unforeseen unstable juice over central Oklahoma?

I saw this question did not get answered. The answer is no. The lapse rates in the mid-levels would be the rate of the temperature changing from the bottom of the layer to the top of the layer. The more rapidly the temperature cools through that layer, the more unstable that layer is. Higher lapse rates, as explained, is favorable for thunderstorm development. The reason why this was significant for areas further downstream... is the air mass characteristics aloft creating these higher lapse rates advect eastward overtop the low-level moisture.... creating an unstable atmosphere in the warm sector.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 751

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

825 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM

UNTIL 400 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST

OVERNIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NE OK INTO SRN MO. WEAK

SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN

FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF DAMAGING

WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME

MORE LINEAR LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE

PRE-FRONTAL BAND.

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Per PD this was on the ground 1 West of Northview. NWS also just called dispatch and said extreme rotation over Marshfield. Live on this feed. http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=5450

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

932 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CST.

* AT 928 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTHVIEW...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF

STRAFFORD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DIGGINS...MARSHFIELD AND NIANGUA.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 100 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED

BY THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

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Just SW of St Louis:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

939 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CST

* AT 936 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. JAMES...OR 9 MILES WEST OF CUBA...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

STEELVILLE...CUBA...BOURBON...SULLIVAN...ANTHONIES MILL...ST.

CLAIR...LEASBURG...PARKWAY...ST. CLOUD AND STANTON.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEEN EXITS 203 AND

225.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

1103 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CST

* AT 1101 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERAL

TORNADOES. THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM ANTONIA TO 8 MILES WEST OF POTOSI...AND MOVING EAST

AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

ANTONIA...HILLSBORO...ARNOLD...POTOSI...BARNHART...DE SOTO...

PEVELY...HERCULANEUM...FESTUS...CRYSTAL CITY...BONNE TERRE...

DESLOGE...WATERLOO...FREEBURG...OLD MINES...MINERAL POINT...

FOUNTAIN...VALMEYER...OLYMPIAN VILLAGE AND NEW DESIGN.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1158 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE

ARKLATEX INTO UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF BLOCKING IN THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN...OVER

THE ATLANTIC...MODELS INDICATE THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE- SCALE

UPPER TROUGH...NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL

U.S...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS

OCCURS...SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC

COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO

DIG OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST.

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL

U.S...A DEEP MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS

THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ...AS A

SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATION PIVOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN

PERIPHERY OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS MAY SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL

DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

REGION...AND PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER WAVE ALONG A

TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHARP

FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT THE

SURFACE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AND

EASTWARD AHEAD OF STRONGER FORCING/COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH

THE UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS MAY BE MOST

PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...WHERE A SHALLOW COLD SURFACE BASED LAYER

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT WARMER MOIST AIR ADVECTING

NORTHWARD OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT

DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO EXIST...IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG AND

SHEARED FLOW REGIME.

..ARKLATEX THROUGH UPPER PORTIONS OF LWR MS VALLEY

PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE

A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED

DESTABILIZATION...CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 500

J/KG...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID/UPPER

FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE WEAK... BUT

PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE

DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY

DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPHS...ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE... INCLUDING

SUPERCELLS...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/HAIL AND

STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..OHIO VALLEY

MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY STRONG NEAR/

BENEATH A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A

SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND

OHIO...INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS MAY BECOME COINCIDENT WITH THE ONSET OF AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL

FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WHICH COULD BECOME ENOUGH TO

SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY

LAYER DESTABILIZATION. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THIS POTENTIAL MAY NOT

BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM TOO LOW FOR A

CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

INC013-027-055-083-093-101-105-109-119-251030-

/O.NEW.KIND.SV.W.0195.101125T0943Z-101125T1030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

443 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN OWEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 530 AM EST

* AT 440 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM 10 MILES WEST OF MARTINSVILLE TO VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST

AT 35 MPH.

Classic IND warning.

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now this i wasn't expecting to have happen here this morning:

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

457 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 545 AM EST

* AT 454 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF WASHINGTON...OR 26 MILES

NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

CRANE AND BLOOMFIELD AROUND 505 AM EST...

OWENSBURG AROUND 510 AM EST...

SILVERVILLE AND SOLSBERRY AROUND 515 AM EST...

SPRINGVILLE...AVOCA...OOLITIC AND BEDFORD AROUND 520 AM EST...

HARRODSBURG AROUND 525 AM EST...

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now this i wasn't expecting to have happen here this morning:

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

457 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 545 AM EST

* AT 454 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF WASHINGTON...OR 26 MILES

NORTHEAST OF VINCENNES...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

CRANE AND BLOOMFIELD AROUND 505 AM EST...

OWENSBURG AROUND 510 AM EST...

SILVERVILLE AND SOLSBERRY AROUND 515 AM EST...

SPRINGVILLE...AVOCA...OOLITIC AND BEDFORD AROUND 520 AM EST...

HARRODSBURG AROUND 525 AM EST...

Don't see that every Thanksgiving.

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I'm trying to figure out the intentions with the TOR box, I know the line is shifting NE, and the storm has an E motion, seems like including Bloomington wasn't needed, but I'm also using crappy web radar.

yeah, i think they had more north motion on it than needed. the next warning was issued farther south.

still, there are weak notches in the line up here too. i'd guess they could spin up at a couple places along the line.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 600 AM EST

* AT 513 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF SHOALS...OR 17 MILES WEST OF

BEDFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

WILLIAMS...SILVERVILLE AND HURON AROUND 520 AM EST...

BEDFORD...MITCHELL...OOLITIC AND AVOCA AROUND 530 AM EST...

TUNNELTON AND SPRING MILL STATE PARK AROUND 535 AM EST...

HELTONVILLE AROUND 540 AM EST...

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