kpantz Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Still having trouble reconciling the determined advance of the 2m 32 degree isotherm on the 18Z NAM with persistent NE or NNE streamlines north and west of 78/287. Maybe it's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As an amateur in SW nass Cnty bordering eastern Queens, what should I be looking at to delay a change over to liquid? .. temps? wind direction, radar? What computer model as of now keeps the city colder longer? Is 2-4 in the boros and western nass a remote possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HPC has finaly put part of our area in a risk for > 4" of snow and > 0.25" of ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, just drove up I78 and PA33. Did not see any new lines from salt brine, although the roads still have a lot of salt on from the previous week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Still having trouble reconciling the determined advance of the 2m 32 degree isotherm on the 18Z NAM with persistent NE or NNE streamlines north and west of 78/287. Maybe it's just me. It looks like the regular diurnal heating component. Reality could be cooler than shown if this component is being exaggerated, which is possible with thick cloud cover and precip... and the lingering weak damning signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z NAM total precip through 36 hrs. Will be scary if the precip stays frozen/freezing over NJ if that much QPF were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, just drove up I78 and PA33. Did not see any new lines from salt brine, although the roads still have a lot of salt on from the previous week. Because the temps are forecast to rise tommorow and at some point it will be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For your FYI, Mt. Holly has also updated its point and click zone forecasts. They now agree much more with the warnings they have issued. They went from little to no ice accumulation too 0.10 to 0.30" ice accumulation for my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, just drove up I78 and PA33. Did not see any new lines from salt brine, although the roads still have a lot of salt on from the previous week. Because the temps are forecast to rise tommorow and at some point it will be rain Err, yeah, but until then it will be a mess. Some areas may not even go above freezing until the afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Update with latest Wxsim module read based on GFS/NAM at 12z Continues it's trend toward more snow for the NW Philly burbs....now forecasting from 4 to 6" of snow and IP before the change to ZR...here are the timings Flurries by 630pm this evening Temp 24.9 Lt Snow at 10pm temp 23.3 Mod Snow at midnight temp 22.3 Heavy Snow at 3am temp 22.1 Heavy Snow/IP mix at 6am temp 24.3 ZR from 7am to 1pm with 0.53" of ZR falling Temp finally rises above freezing by 1pm with just a little leftover drizzle It also has heavy snow arriving after midnight on Thursday with another 5 -7" of snow by Friday AM rush Wow! IDoes that have a good track record? If so, this is going to surprise a lot of Commuters tomorrow a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Large portion of the northeast under warnings...storm mode anyone? I find humerous the lack of activity on the boards because the major cities are avoiding the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ej257 snow lover Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z NAM total precip through 36 hrs. Will be scary if the precip stays frozen/freezing over NJ if that much QPF were to verify. this sure came out of left field, what is the reasoning behind such a sudden jump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS is slightly warmer this run, although still not as wet or warm as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Err, yeah, but until then it will be a mess. Some areas may not even go above freezing until the afternoon... That is true , however this will not last all that long and snow binding to the pavement shouldnt be an issue after the precip, changes I know out in my zone if the precip is forcast to be all snow with cold temps is the only way we pre wet. If there is any chance of ice or rain change pre wetting is not normally done. Ive gotta run be safe out there Ill be crusing I-78 tween Krums and 183 , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Large portion of the northeast under warnings...storm mode anyone? I find humerous the lack of activity on the boards because the major cities are avoiding the worst of it. Well let's think about that, the major cities is where a MAJORITY of the people live so it makes sense that without a major storm for the big cities the activity would be a lot less here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well let's think about that, the major cities is where a MAJORITY of the people live so it makes sense that without a major storm for the big cities the activity would be a lot less here. well...it's not as if they are avoiding the system entirely and this is still affecting a very populated region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS is wetter and warmer than its own prior runs, no? Looks like a fairly strong signal towards the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 well...it's not as if they are avoiding the system entirely and this is still affecting a very populated region. That is true but the big east coast cities of DC/Balt/Phl/NY are not getting hit that hard so people just are not that excited. Although after what we have been through in my area 1" of snow followed by .2 of ice seems like a major storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z NAM through 36 hrs. Paints a very icy situation with numerous areas of >0.25" ice in the warned area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS is wetter and warmer than its own prior runs, no? Looks like a fairly strong signal towards the NAM. Not as much QPF as the NAM. How do the 2M teps look on the GFS? The 18Z NAM is quite warm but the end result is more freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A split with the new GFS and NAM looks good...still think the NAM is a bit too bullish with the WAA and QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For what its worth the 12z GFS was too cold at the surface in a place like ABE where it wasn't supposed to get over 20 this afternoon, and its currently 24 degrees. So likely the GFS was too cold at 12z and the NAM is too warm....a compromise still looks best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 A split with the new GFS and NAM looks good...still think the NAM is a bit too bullish with the WAA and QPF Yeah, I still agree with this. As a result, I'll stick with my 0.60-0.65 QPF forecast here with a change to rain around noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks nasty for Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Found this cool little page for comparing NAM and GFS meteograms. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KABE&model=nam&time=current&field=pcompare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, So it looks like a changeover to rain in Berks county by noon? What are the chances of a refreeze during the evening hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 quite the discrepancy between nws forecast of 3-6" and accuweather 1-3" for parts of Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not that PennDOT would know at school in western PA they would literally just throw cinder (glorified rocks), yet the DSNY gets complaints. And theres a relatively strong chance it stays subfreezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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