RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why are we putting obs in the forecast discussion thread now? ez there commie.......cant control EVERYTHING now. ive got 27F here at work in middlesex county NJ. cant see too much cooling happening this evening as the cloud cover is thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM starts at 2:30 Well for another 33 minutes then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 so....any chance we switch from an advisory to warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think we should have a thread specifically for points N + W of Philly, through ABE, to MPO to Scranton. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z total QPF GFS by precip type through 6z 1/19 - basically indicates quite a bit of snow followed by quite a bit of ice just north and west of NYC. Also says Warren, Morris, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen counties on north and west see not a drop of plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z total QPF GFS by precip type through 6z 1/19 - basically indicates quite a bit of snow followed by quite a bit of ice just north and west of NYC. Also says Warren, Morris, Sussex, Passaic and Bergen counties on north and west see not a drop of plain rain. yea but GFS is notorious for not picking up on the warm air injecting northward in these type of setups, where the cold air is thin. it tends to hang on to the cold too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yea but GFS is notorious for not picking up on the warm air injecting northward in these type of setups, where the cold air is thin. it tends to hang on to the cold too long. When you compare it to the same map for the 12z NAM, its not much different, the main difference is that it falls more as freezing rain instead of snow which in this case is fine for me since I've been rooting for a major ice storm ever since it became clear that 12+" of snow was off the table. I'd take 0.5" of ice over 5" of snow any day of the week. 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm suprised nobody mentioned the latest high def models that came out. Both indicate widespread well over 1" QPF with > 2" along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm suprised nobody mentioned the latest high def models that came out. Both indicate widespread well over 1" QPF with > 2" along the coast. Well, we already knew this is a wet event. But what about temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well, we already knew this is a wet event. But what about temps? temps look to warm above freezing at 850mb for I-95 around 12z but I don't see where it shows 2m temps to give an accurate surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 850s on both look like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 temps look to warm above freezing at 850mb for I-95 around 12z but I don't see where it shows 2m temps to give an accurate surface temp. Yeah sfc is more important. We all know 850 is going above zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm liking the idea of an inverted trough situation following the lead s/w moving thru later tonight. Once temps crash late Tuesday, another meso snowband could setup across the region. The CRAS short range shows this well, but I never would trust this model's thermal profiles. It has the hi-res so it sniffs these small scale features rather notably: Now the longer range CRAS is usually overphased solutions, but this is eye candy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 When you compare it to the same map for the 12z NAM, its not much different, the main difference is that it falls more as freezing rain instead of snow which in this case is fine for me since I've been rooting for a major ice storm ever since it became clear that 12+" of snow was off the table. I'd take 0.5" of ice over 5" of snow any day of the week. 12z Nam nam is further north with the rain and freezing rain in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I can see the clouds rolling in from the south/southwest. Still perfectly sunny here with temps around 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I can see the clouds rolling in from the south/southwest. Still perfectly sunny here with temps around 24 Overcast here and has been for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 nam is further north with the rain and freezing rain in NJ. That is exactly what I just said, the difference is more QPF falls as freezing rain over NJ than Snow on the NAM which is a solution I'm in favor of since 5" of snow does nothing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It's been cloudy since I woke up today, around 7:30. 27 f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm liking the idea of an inverted trough situation following the lead s/w moving thru later tonight. Once temps crash late Tuesday, another meso snowband could setup across the region. The CRAS short range shows this well, but I never would trust this model's thermal profiles. It has the hi-res so it sniffs these small scale features rather notably: Now the longer range CRAS is usually overphased solutions, but this is eye candy: Eye candy if you like rain? That's not a good Low position nor is there any hint of redevelopment... but the inverted trough would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Mt. Holly upgraded some areas (northern counties) to a WSW for 3-6" of snow, then some ice accrual. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 237 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-180400- /O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.110118T0600Z-110118T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0003.110118T0300Z-110118T2100Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON 237 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND THEN POSSIBLY ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OF GLAZE. * TIMING: SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN 1000 PM AND MIDNIGHT...THEN CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 700 AM AND 1000 AM...THEN CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AND DIFFICULT TUESDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 <br />I'm not sure if your familiar with the Easton/Wilson area SD, but the last event we had, EASD was the only district closed; yet Wilson SD which is literally a block away from EASD, had a delayed opening. Quite humorous.<br /><br /><br /><br />Not to be offtopic, but i just saw this post and thought id clarify. Im a senior at Wilson, and we in fact did indeed close. Unfortunately it did take until after 7am for the decision to be made. On another side note, Bethlehem was the only public school district in the valley not to close, at least according to the Morning Call. Again, sorry for offtopic, just wanted to clarify. Hopefully this next storm is either more of a snow dropper or a rain dropper...not a fan of the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I guess we know which dirrection Mt. Holly is leaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Why are we discussing schools in this thread? I think a mod should split it off into a different thread. Exactly. Nobody took the time to answer your question regarding elevation and changeover, but will freely discuss school closings, which don't belong in a storm threat thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 18z Nam just initialized.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM looks a bit warmer with the thermal profiles through the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM coming in warmer still..... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Winter storm watch here in Southern Westchester... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 NAM coming in warmer still..... wow Can we have some actual details?? "Wow" doesn't cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Winter storm watch here in Southern Westchester... I dont have one any more forecast is colder than yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah for some reason my area always seems to be on the border in these situations..... I think we see 1-3 of snow then a prolonged period of freezing rain due to the entrenched lower level cold. Theres still over a foot of snow on the ground here and temps have been in the tank the past week or so....so surface stays around 30-31 while the mid levels go to about 4-5c. Maybe a period of rain at the end when the cold is finally uprooted.... Should be fun to track I think you may be disappointed... low level cold is pretty easy to scour out for the coastal plain. I've learned to never rely on the strength of antecedent cold in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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