IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If temps are in the mid 30's to around 40 with a low to the east, flooding would not be a big concern. As with those temps the snowpack could absorb the majority of the moisture. Once you start to get temps above 40-45...then you have worries. It sounds like the Euro wants to make temps quite warm though and the GFS has a more inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 My Hunch is that as the next couple days unfold this will become a colder(at least Mix Scenario especially N& W burbs)..Very Rare to see an all out rain storm in Mid Jan when preceding the storm temps are seasonal or even below normal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Tombo do you have the QPF for next weeks event from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Tombo do you have the QPF for next weeks event from the euro? phl .8 nyc 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Forms big cut-off in SW at 168 - Looks to threaten the S +E US past day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Forms big cut-off in SW at 168 - Looks to threaten the S +E US past day 7 yea most likely but the euro is going to keep it there playing right into its bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 If temps are in the mid 30's to around 40 with a low to the east, flooding would not be a big concern. As with those temps the snowpack could absorb the majority of the moisture. Once you start to get temps above 40-45...then you have worries. under those conditions it's not 40-45 that's the real killer it's dewpoints, high dewpoints & you start watching that snow vanish south winds as opposed to east winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 some lgt snow for the area next sunday....then looks like the pv wants to drop down from hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 As I mentioned before, I'm a firefighter in Morris County, NJ. The Pompton River runs right through the town along Rt 23. Just got off the phone with the Chief, he got a call from the OEM director asking for us to be on high alert and to prepare for ice and possible flooding. Just to give you some numbers, with the March flooding we responded to 147 different calls for either rescues or home evacuations, and that's not including the people that saw us and asked for help, only those that called 911. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 things to watch for in future runs. You need the high pressure to retreat north, not northeast. Also you need the northern stream storm to dig further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Since this event is pretty far out, you'd think things could change for the better. However, in the cutter scenario, things generally get worse as we get closer. By next week we could be seeing 50s and heavy rain and completely lose the snow pack, but hey, it was a nice 1/2 winter if we never see anymore snowstorms. I just wish it were colder than the 13F low I saw in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hr 240 has a clipper in central mn, with the pv right behind it. the lgt snow event that leaves our area develops a coastal storm and is heading and may turn the nao a little more neg and huge pna ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 that PV means business at the end of the run.. it is very strong. Also, a very dynamic clipper entering the upper midwest to end Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this is suppose to be our blowtorch last week of Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Since this event is pretty far out, you'd think things could change for the better. However, in the cutter scenario, things generally get worse as we get closer. By next week we could be seeing 50s and heavy rain and completely lose the snow pack, but hey, it was a nice 1/2 winter if we never see anymore snowstorms. I just wish it were colder than the 13F low I saw in December. I like the way you are already reminiscing about the snowpack that is still on the ground. Your comments are extremely premature and based only on anecdotal evidence. Accuracy and verification rarely follows a statement composed of these two characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this one is a rainstorm for the coast, plain and simple..remember it's the pattern that drives the storm and we have NOTHING in place to things to change much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Per Euro <24hr warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 if we took the euro at 240 and extrapolated it out further, it would not surprise me a bit if that clipper were to evolve into something big over the northeast.. there is another low setting up into the 50-50 position at around the same time and it almost looks like the pattern is going to go into a massive block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Per Euro <24hr warm-up. its not even a warmup really, phl would get to 40 or so...thats why i said the euro is the best scenario, with the gfs next then the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 its not even a warmup really, phl would get to 40 or so...thats why i said the euro is the best scenario, with the gfs next then the ggem No frozen precipitation really falls on the ECM, though, so not a very interesting event. GFS would at least bring some excitement here with 2-4" snow followed by potentially some ice. We'll see what happens but I bet the models lower 2m temperatures as we get closer in. With the high pressure to our NNE, this could easily be a colder and messier scenario than currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice month we have going on here. Inevitably there's always a warm up or rain storm. And we will probably get both next week. But even in this less than ideal upcoming period we have a chance for snowshowers on Sat and then a system that could actually deliver a few more inches of snow in a few different ways. The Euro and GGEM actually threaten a pretty good inland snowstorms - and god knows they could use it. Good snowpack builder for the ski areas. Warm up looks brief. Might not break 40F. And probably not for long if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 As I mentioned before, I'm a firefighter in Morris County, NJ. The Pompton River runs right through the town along Rt 23. Just got off the phone with the Chief, he got a call from the OEM director asking for us to be on high alert and to prepare for ice and possible flooding. Just to give you some numbers, with the March flooding we responded to 147 different calls for either rescues or home evacuations, and that's not including the people that saw us and asked for help, only those that called 911. Your OEM must have a background in weather, don't know where he got that info from. They never are that proactive or timely, especially when the outcome is far from determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE CYCLONECROSSING THE MID-SOUTH AND EAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD...WITH A BETTERCHANCE FOR RAIN THAN SNOW WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THEEAST...THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHERWEST/INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Your OEM must have a background in weather, don't know where he got that info from. They never are that proactive or timely, especially when the outcome is far from determined. We usually get notification 48-72hrs out, I will admit he called a tad early. I have noticed that the local tv/radio mets have been playing this one up today so that might have something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well, with the flooding we got in March the snow pack was more or less gone except in upper Passaic/Sussex County. I'm a Firefighter and Morris County OEM estimated that the snowpack up their was holding about 9" of water. This was mostly due to the big noreaster we had in February which brought them about 40" of snow. I frequent West Milford and I can tell you personally that the snow pack up their is massive in some spots, and I have no idea what the water content is but their is 2-3' in most spots with piles all over the place 8-10' high where it was plowed. The water up their runs off into the Pequannock River which then dumps into the Pompton River which then dumps into the Passaic River. I've lived here all my life and everytime their has been a snow pack like we currently have it's been a game of Russian Roulette with the rain. haha, what are you smoking? their snow pack is not much different than other areas. about 10-15 inches. believe me i know, have friends all over west milford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 haha, what are you smoking? their snow pack is not much different than other areas. about 10-15 inches. believe me i know, have friends all over west milford. Yeah im 25 miles NW of West Milfiord and my snowpack is about 12".. There are some place just north of West Milford in the Greenwood Lake/Monroe NY area that have about 18" or so but thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah im 25 miles NW of West Milfiord and my snowpack is about 12".. There are some place just north of West Milford in the Greenwood Lake/Monroe NY area that have about 18" or so but thats about it. my town boders west milford, my snow depth is from 10-16 inches as is theirs. This guy seems to be a gloom and doom guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah im 25 miles NW of West Milfiord and my snowpack is about 12".. There are some place just north of West Milford in the Greenwood Lake/Monroe NY area that have about 18" or so but thats about it. I'll be back in West Milford tomorrow night and I'll be happy to post pictures of snow two feet high and massive piles in parking lots. and just for your FYI, as you know West Milford is very large, I'm talking Pine Cliff Lake which is very close to Hewitt. It's not that they got so much more snow than we did, just that its been staying around better up their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'll be back in West Milford tomorrow night and I'll be happy to post pictures of snow two feet high and massive piles in parking lots. you know tell me where and ill meet you their. I can take pictures of piles of snow to, there total snow for the year is 34 inches(and thats at 1100 feet elevation) mine is 33.30. All towns lost significant snow from that mild spell. they dont have anywhere near 2 to 3 feet of snow pack especially considering they have not even had 3 ft for the year. Obviously we know know not to take your totals to seriously in the future. Make sure you stick the lower numbers of the ruler in the snow first. perhaps you put the ruler in backwards lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 you know tell me where and ill meet you their. I can take pictures of piles of snow to, there total snow for the year is 34 inches(and thats at 1100 feet elevation) mine is 33.30. All towns lost significant snow from that mild spell. they dont have anywhere near 2 to 3 feet of snow pack especially considering they have not even had 3 ft for the year. Obviously we know know not to take your totals to seriously in the future. Make sure you stick the lower numbers of the ruler in the snow first. perhaps you put the ruler in backwards lol Just that bit of elevation works wonders sometimes. I've been in rain on 23 and it switches over to Snow somewhere on Union Valley Road. What were arguing over is semantics anyway since with the wind blowing it into drifts its difficult to get an accurate measurement. The point is...their is a lot of snow up their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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