SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Its generally known that systems either travel the western side or the eastern side of the APPS. It has happened in the past but its very rare for a system to go directly over the APPS.... It was posted a few weeks ago that the March 8 2008 storm and the 1950 storm are the two most well known to do it, I cannot recall any others offhand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 euro is pretty much dry from the clipper except mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 through hr 66 at h5 the northern stream is a little less aggressive...the s/w is further west and alittle stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 through hr 84, its a lot shorter with southern wave...this may cut because the northern stream is catching up faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 102 has a storm brewing in the eastern gulf, much more amplified than 12z...850s are already on the m/d line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 108 has a low developing over sc...850s up to nyc...precip still south of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ECM @ 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What's the location of the highs and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 102 has a storm brewing in the eastern gulf, much more amplified than 12z...850s are already on the m/d line the more this bombs and cuts inland, the better chances we have at blocking developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 114 sub 1004 low over rich a plethora of rain coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What's the location of the highs and strength it moved off shore was sub 1028 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 120 has a sub 1000 low over ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 .75-1.5 of rain region wide....most is out by mdt...least jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 For the I-95, we should not be surprised by episodic warm/rain events followed by big, heavy snows. If you remember back to 95-96 winter, that was pretty common. It's very uncommon to get big snow after big snow piling up on top of each other. It's not like Manhattan sees snow pack of 30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 120 looks like the low is off the coast... Though 850s plenty warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hr 120 has a sub 1000 low over ttn That normally means good snow for CTP and WNY regions. This would make sense given CTP's lackluster winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 For the I-95, we should not be surprised by episodic warm/rain events followed by big, heavy snows. If you remember back to 95-96 winter, that was pretty common. It's very uncommon to get big snow after big snow piling up on top of each other. It's not like Manhattan sees snow pack of 30 inches. I disagree--while we've seen a similar amount of snow to 95-96 so far, the patterns have been vastly different and we most definitely have not seen warm rainy events this winter so far. We had a very brief thaw and even held onto snowpack. Central Park has gone a month without seeing any appreciable rain, FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 120 looks like the low is off the coast... Though 850s plenty warm yea i don't have where it places the low, so i just go with where the middle of the lowest isobar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That normally means good snow for CTP and WNY regions. This would make sense given CTP's lackluster winter thus far. the beginning stages they are abv frz, but as the storm starts to gain latitude they go below frz and the 850 is just to there west..but they only get like .1 qpf frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 yea i don't have where it places the low, so i just go with where the middle of the lowest isobar Hence the reason why i said I do not think the GFS has the right idea as far as track because its not recognizing the low along the coast. However..I think the GFS is going to pick up on the cold air ideal better then the ECM actually will...GFS is usually better with situations that involve CAD...i would probably say that the ensemble means would have a slightly colder look at the 850 level then what we see on the OP ECM here.... Definitely coastal plain will end up rain but far N & W away from the big cities I think are going to be a different story ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Hence the reason why i said I do not think the GFS has the right idea as far as track because its not recognizing the low along the coast. However..I think the GFS is going to pick up on the cold air ideal better then the ECM actually will...GFS is usually better with situations that involve CAD...i would probably say that the ensemble means would have a slightly colder look at the 850 level then what we see on the OP ECM here.... Definitely coastal plain will end up rain but far N & W away from the big cities I think are going to be a different story ... i would think the other way around, considering the euro has a higher resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Hence the reason why i said I do not think the GFS has the right idea as far as track because its not recognizing the low along the coast. However..I think the GFS is going to pick up on the cold air ideal better then the ECM actually will...GFS is usually better with situations that involve CAD...i would probably say that the ensemble means would have a slightly colder look at the 850 level then what we see on the OP ECM here.... Definitely coastal plain will end up rain but far N & W away from the big cities I think are going to be a different story ... I'm not sure why that would be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not sure why that would be the case. it shouldn't be... it's a spectral model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Its the case that I have seen over the years of watching the models when it comes to winter storms. I remember plenty of storms where we were suppose to change over to plain rain etc on the ECM...but we ended up with alot more frozen..its just something that i guess you could say chops up to experience..... FWIW here is the 00z NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm starting to think the main argument is whether or not all of our snow pack will be depleted rather than frozen vs rain. So will we see 50s and over an inch or rain, or 40 and half an inch of rain, which would preserve some of our snow pack. A secondary argument could be whether we see some frozen before the rain or not. I don't think any of the models show us getting any frozen before the rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol...gotta love CTP...oh well, we could use the rain to clean the cinders up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 ...That most definitely shows the 850s to still be subfreezing, albeit slightly. I'd chance it with subfreezing 850s given the antecedent snowpack. As depicted, NYC would be snow through 108. With a few thousand feet of above freezing and S- SE winds all the way up past 850? Seems a tad optimistic to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 some lgt snow for the region next friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 there is fast southerly flow in se canada for monday night's event. there is no way we get snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol...gotta love CTP...oh well, we could use the rain to clean the cinders up. lol we could use the rain and warmth to melt the 4" of snow we have here... missed every storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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