The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 well the NAO is no longer absurdly tanked..so that means the fun ends...it's pretty much a given for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 not good for here. Doesn't sound good for anyone. Models still seem lost with all the different solutions we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 not good for here. Well, the good news is that 850 mb temps don't go above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah, 850 MB temps are in C. IL it looks like throughout most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Canuck needs an extra blanket at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well, the good news is that 850 mb temps don't go above 0C. Time to punt. Another lousy snow melter. Looks good for MN and WI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Time to punt. Another lousy snow melter. Looks good for MN and WI though. I'm not punting yet but this looks like sloppy garbage for us. Euro looks like it's trying to bring the arctic pain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I could be wrong but I dont think this storm takes almost the same track as the clipper. Lets wait until the clipper is gone and this storm is sampled before we punt on first down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 extracted data from the 0Z ggem puts my area at -26 early wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm not punting yet but this looks like sloppy garbage for us. Euro looks like it's trying to bring the arctic pain on this run. Garbage it is. And yes nice cold shot on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What are you talking about? The clipper ends up in the UP, this one goes to NE IA to S. WI according to UKIE/EURO. Way different tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Garbage it is. And yes nice cold shot on the Euro. The good thing is that if this pans out as currently modeled, we'll actually have a chance to retain some snow cover. This is nothing like the New Years debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The good thing is that if this pans out as currently modeled, we'll actually have a chance to retain some snow cover. This is nothing like the New Years debacle. Yup, good point. Temps aren't going to get crazy and will only be "warm" for a relatively short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Models are doing just fine this year. does that show CMC at no 2 or is it inverse? what are they looking at here exactly....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 DTXTHE NEXT SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK AND BUCKLE IN THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOWWILL ADVANCE INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES EARLY NEXTWEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM TRACKAS THE ECMWF/NHEM GEM SUGGESTS THIS EVENT MAY EVEN BECOME A GULFCOASTAL LOW. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TOSUGGEST THAT A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THEGREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. STRENGTHS OF THIS SYSTEMINCLUDE A HIGHER AMOUNT OF DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND A LONGERPRECIPITATION DURATION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTOHIGH CHANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z GFS looks uglier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Basically what the models are doing is trending more towards a clipper like system. Note here.. Now this. and this. The southern system that had been showing no longer is and thus now becoming more northern dominated and thus more clipper like a it passes through. However GRR ( WDM ) has another point on it. It is a bit of a read but a very nice read. He mentions the artic shot and why it may not all come down. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE I SEE LITTLE QUESTION WINTER LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER AND BETTER AS THERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY IN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE THERE AND IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING US A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT. WHEN WE ARE NOT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE STORM SYSTEM... WINDS WILL BE FROM A VARIATION OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION (NO HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA PASSING JUST NORTH OF US TO BRING EASTERLY WINDS) SO LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ON GOING THROUGH THE WEEK WHEN THERE IS NOT SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL OCCURRING. THEN COMES THE ISSUE OF THAT AIR MASS FROM THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC. I STILL BELIEVE THAT WILL BRING US THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE WINTER BUT THE QUESTION NOW IS WHEN? MY CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERAL OUT COME OF THIS FORECAST IS HIGH BUT MY CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS RATHER LOW SINCE THE PATTERN IS SO ANOMALOUS. ON THE HEMISPHERIC SCALE... OUR MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE A COMBINATION OF THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING NORTHWEST OF ALASKA THANK TO THAT ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER HIGH (3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL)AND THE EAST ASIAN JET CROSSING THE PACIFIC NEAR 35N WITH WINDS UP TO 210 KNOTS IN THE CORE OF THE JET (JUST EAST OF JAPAN ON SUNDAY). ONE THING THE ECMWF DOES THAT I AM NOT TO WARM AND FUSSY WITH IS IT SEEMS TO WANT TO BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE WAY TO QUICKLY COMPARED THE GFS. ON THE OTHER HAND THERE IS THAT 210 KNOT JET CORE WEST OF THE DATELINE BY MONDAY EVENING. THAT IS WHY THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING DOWN AS COLD OF AIR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE GFS DOES. THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS (1000/925 MB ) SO EVEN THROUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS COMING WEEK IT DOES BRING AIR COLD ENOUGH TO GIVE SW LOWER MICHIGAN HIGHS IN THE TEENS IN PLACE THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT SHOWS THE COLDEST AIR GOING SOUTH OF MI THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA. THE 1000/925 MB THICKNESS FROM THE ECMWF WOULD BRING HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 THURSDAY AND MAYBE FRIDAY. FOR NOW I DID NOT CHANGE OUR FORECAST GRIDDED TEMPS TO MUCH IT WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR OUR STORM ON TUESDAY... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PLAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET CORE. I HAVE AN ISSUE WITH BOTH OF THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON BOTH MODELS ARE SOUTH OF KENTUCKY. I HAVE TO WONDER IF WE WOULD SEE A COLD FRONT OCCLUSION GO BY US TUESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM IN EFFECT WOULD STAY SOUTH. THAT WOULD KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW HERE TUESDAY AS WE WOULD BE IN THE OCCLUSION LIFT ZONE OF THE SYSTEM. EITHER WAY 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO FOLLOW THE SYSTEM AND THAT WILL SURELY GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SO I INCREASE THE POP NEAR THE LAKE SHORE FOR WEDNESDAY TO SHOW THAT IMPACT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Not liking the 00z/06z model trends. A good snow event across the Upper Midwest (Clipper style like Harry mentioned), not much across the Ohio Valley, and then a coastal low that at least does provide some lake effect to the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Not liking the 00z/06z model trends. A good snow event across the Upper Midwest (Clipper style like Harry mentioned), not much across the Ohio Valley, and then a coastal low that at least does provide some lake effect to the Great Lakes. Yep. We need a stronger southern system to come out of Texas. This as is ( if it verifies as 00z shows ) would be another snoozefest for most ( story of our winter so what i would favor at this point ) and a total waste of energy once again for us. Without a stronger southern system tracking to Lake Erie we are basically dead in the water as far as any meaningful snow goes outside the areas you mention. Still could come back but again with the way this winter has gone i would not place any bets on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The good thing is that if this pans out as currently modeled, we'll actually have a chance to retain some snow cover. This is nothing like the New Years debacle. AMEN! Worst case scenario (no big storm), its still several inches of snow here on Mon/Tue, and that is in addition to the 1-2" we will be getting tonight/tomorrow morning, and we got over a half inch last night with a solid 5" on the ground. We *could* be on the way to building up a nice snowpack, something that I (as you know) LOVE. That said, I know what many are looking for, and I want it too...and thats a big bomb. My gut feeling of it coming in Feb or Mar (along with our "backloaded" winter) has not waivered, and I would continue to say that whether we had bare ground now or whether we had nickeled and dimed our way to a 2-ft depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Amazingly little spread in the 0Z ECM 50 member ensemble mean wrt its operational run. GFS has cut its spread significantly too and generally tracks the low much farther N and weaker with less Gulf moisture as the guidance are now keying in on the leading S/W tracking just ahead of the Canadian vortex/cold air spill into the high plains with a phase over the northern plains. Means a lot of areas will see snow--but it means some areas may cash in less than before. 500 hpa height @ 96: MSLP @ 96: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You said it right there (bolded). The dynamical assessment they make is odd, and the real reasoning lies in the way the guidance handles the upper level height field and associated wave disturbances. IS it possible for the southern low to phase with the north low. From what I see it doesnt even come close. I would assume if it does a more NW track is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 as expected that 3-5 inch WAA snows over IL/IA are gone on the 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 talk about a major change LOL 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 IS it possible for the southern low to phase with the north low. From what I see it doesnt even come close. I would assume if it does a more NW track is likely. Probabilities and careful wording are the key to the forecasting game . It is not 100 percent sure that a northern wave will verify, but it is such a small chance that a dominant southern wave/overunning type event verifies that it really isn't worth giving much credence (I say 90/10 % northern wave solution/southern wave solution). There is very little chance now that the southern stream dominant waves like the CMC pans out. It does seem the first S/W will phase with the canadian vortex with a secondary wave disturbance passing into the southern states near the GOM. The dominant first wave will be our cyclone--the secondary wave won't do much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I dropped WDM a pm elsewhere ( I chat with him often ) to see if maybe we can get a response from him as seeing how it is him who wrote the AFD that is being questioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/fp0_084.shtml Maybe the 500mb energy in the pacific NW will come out to be a dominate southern wave in later runs of 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nam just lost the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 So this potential "snowstorm" is looking like it may end up being a fropa with wet -shsn/-shra. NAM appears to be more aggressive with the warming out ahead of the front compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 So this potential "snowstorm" is looking like it may end up being a fropa with wet -shsn/-shra. NAM appears to be more aggressive with the warming out ahead of the front compared to the other models. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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