Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 next Agreed. Always funny how good potential from earlier in the week on the models, can get flushed so quickly. Nature of the beast I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Uh oh. Sickman's reading this thread. Trouble's 'a brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Storm fail making people a little testy/sensitive around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Calling them weenies probably wasn't the best way to say I am not sure what exactly they are saying. After all they have the degrees and I am a novice. Lets not get all sensitive here. Wasn't meant to insult, just question. I am not sensitive but that was a cheap shot by you. Not the way to question a met with a degree. I know the guy well enough to know he is far from a weenie and knows more then most on this board does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Storm fail making people a little testy/sensitive around here? Its not even onshore yet so to jump to the conclusion of a fail is crazy. A day ago some models had it going alot further south in the plains. It's trending like the dec 12 storm though. This time around theres no block to the north preventing this thing from going into upper michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Storm fail making people a little testy/sensitive around here? Nah, just a little baroclinic/harry flare up. No mass weenie suicides. Weatherguru is going to bust hard, but other than that business as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 in the period of storm uncertainty, there are many times where you read AFDs and they can all be from neighboring offices, and each office picks or mentions the solution that gives them the most snow as being favored.....i guess in that way you get analyiss of various models. that is the main reason why i dont even read mid range and long range AFDs anymore, ever,in order to get more certainty. i used to read them ALL the time, but now i would say my AFD usage is 5% of what it used to be, which is a huge drop off. i do enjoy reading AFDs from all the offices when the forecast is pretty certain and there is a widespread storm, unfrotuantely hasnt happened much lately otherwise i get more info from discussion on this board during storm uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I am not sensitive but that was a cheap shot by you. Not the way to question a met with a degree. I know the guy well enough to know he is far from a weenie and knows more then most on this board does. I don't doubt that he knows more than any of us. That being said if I read other AFD's I can respectfully disagree and question. Sure weenie wasn't very respectful and could be seen as an insult, but I was joking. If you want to take it and put a negative spin on there's not much I can do about that. Have a good one y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Nah, just a little baroclinic/harry flare up. No mass weenie suicides. Weatherguru is going to bust hard, but other than that business as usual. I guess his intuition of a classic exploding storm was off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think people are jumping off this potential way too quickly, the energy is not ashore yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What's with the depressed feel to this room? Many of you are still in the game, and aside we haven't even seen the 12z runs aside the NAM. GFS incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think people are jumping off this potential way too quickly, the energy is not ashore yet. What's with the depressed feel to this room? Many of you are still in the game, and aside we haven't even seen the 12z runs aside the NAM. GFS incoming. Honestly I don't know why anyone is depressed. As said earlier, a large portion of the region will be seeing accumulating snow and some very winter-like conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Honestly I don't know why anyone is depressed. As said earlier, a large portion of the region will be seeing accumulating snow and some very winter-like conditions. The problem is you personally started to downplay the potential a little bit and people jumped off the bridge. I think this has a lot of potential left and to say any potential option being off the table is premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Honestly I don't know why anyone is depressed. As said earlier, a large portion of the region will be seeing accumulating snow and some very winter-like conditions. I think there's a bit of a malaise setting in over these modest snowfalls. There's a wide swath of geography between IA/WI and the East Coast that has yet to see warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The problem is you personally started to downplay the potential a little bit and people jumped off the bridge. I think this has a lot of potential left and to say any potential option being off the table is premature. OMG I didnt personally downplay anything. I said the southern solution was unlikely to verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What's with the depressed feel to this room? Many of you are still in the game, and aside we haven't even seen the 12z runs aside the NAM. GFS incoming. Because someone said the 12z NAM at 84 hrs lost the storm If Baro says there is potential I'm still on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Posted again since the words were apparently not understood. "Amazingly little spread in the 0Z ECM 50 member ensemble mean wrt its operational run. GFS has cut its spread significantly too and generally tracks the low much farther N and weaker with less Gulf moisture as the guidance are now keying in on the leading S/W tracking just ahead of the Canadian vortex/cold air spill into the high plains with a phase over the northern plains. Means a lot of areas will see snow--but it means some areas may cash in less than before." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 OMG I didnt personally downplay anything. I said the southern solution was unlikely to verify.... take it back and call for a mind numbing blizzard...fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 OMG I didnt personally downplay anything. I said the southern solution was unlikely to verify.... Baro I'm not trying to take a shot at you at all the point is though is when people see 'less phasing' or 'lack of southern influence' they read that as weaker solution, even if you don't mean that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Please don't get that I'm playing debbie downer for the entire region. Not the case at all. But for LAF/central Indiana, our prospects are slim to none. Writing is on the wall with most of the guidance pointing to a warm/rainy solution for this neck of the woods. North of here looks to be very much in the game for accumulating snows. Regardless, I won't clutter the thread with any more of my negativity for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Posted again since the words were apparently not understood. "Amazingly little spread in the 0Z ECM 50 member ensemble mean wrt its operational run. GFS has cut its spread significantly too and generally tracks the low much farther N and weaker with less Gulf moisture as the guidance are now keying in on the leading S/W tracking just ahead of the Canadian vortex/cold air spill into the high plains with a phase over the northern plains. Means a lot of areas will see snow--but it means some areas may cash in less than before." Quite honestly a southern solution would have been worse, and a lot of folks would have seen rain as I mentioned last night--especially in the southern OV. The current running GFS shows a northern solution can be quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite honestly a southern solution would have been worse, and a lot of folks would have seen rain as I mentioned last night--especially in the southern OV. The current running GFS shows a northern solution can be quite good. The thing is those to the north who have missed out, probably would be better off with a more phased system, obviously it has a higher ceiling than a unphased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol, no one was freaking out, then someone said people were freaking out and a shytstorm ensues. Phrases I’m looking forward to never hearing again “It hasn’t been sampled” and “anything can happen”, it has been sampled, and anything most certainly can’t happen. Some people were hoping for a classic panhandle hooker, looks pretty unlikely. Some will still see snow, lets move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite honestly a southern solution would have been worse, and a lot of folks would have seen rain as I mentioned last night--especially in the southern OV. The current running GFS shows a northern solution can be quite good. Quite good for who? Yourself and those in MN again perhaps? The southern solution would have worked out alot better for more folks in these parts. This screws alot more people. Lets not kid ourselves here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The thing is those to the north who have missed out, probably would be better off with a more phased system, obviously it has a higher ceiling than a unphased solution. Yes perhaps, but the simple fact is I said the truth and put the forecast on the line as I saw it--a northern solution with an early phase and not a GOM low. I don't know how else to say it but "Means a lot of areas will see snow--but it means some areas may cash in less than before." Folks will just have to realize our region is massive, and not every single person will get exactly what they want very often. I think it is advisable for everyone here not to take the forecasts and skew them the wrong way. Everyone here honestly needs to lighten up and stop reading things and reacting immediately. "OMG baroclinic_instability is saying nothing will happen since a southern solution may not verify". Come on folks...grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite good for who? Yourself and those in MN again perhaps? The southern solution would have worked out alot better for more folks in these parts. This screws alot more people. Lets not kid ourselves here. It does? I don't see the 12Z GFS screwing you or Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol, no one was freaking out, then someone said people were freaking out and a shytstorm ensues. Phrases I’m looking forward to never hearing again “It hasn’t been sampled” and “anything can happen”, it has been sampled, and anything most certainly can’t happen. Some people were hoping for a classic panhandle hooker, looks pretty unlikely. Some will still see snow, lets move on. Alek you are just wrong, the Pacific other than ship and satellite is a vast data void. So to say it has been sampled is about as loose of the term as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yes perhaps, but the simple fact is I said the truth and put the forecast on the line as I saw it--a northern solution with an early phase and not a GOM low. I don't know how else to say it but "Means a lot of areas will see snow--but it means some areas may cash in less than before." Folks will just have to realize our region is massive, and not every single person will get exactly what they want very often. I think it is advisable for everyone here not to take the forecasts and skew them the wrong way. Everyone here honestly needs to lighten up and stop reading things and reacting immediately. "OMG baroclinic_instability is saying nothing will happen since a souther solution may not verify". Come on folks...grow up. I am just stating why people are getting all down on it, I have no stake on what solution verifies as both solutions bring me considerable amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Alek you are just wrong, the Pacific other than ship and satellite is a vast data void. So to say it has been sampled is about as loose of the term as you can get. disagree and it's been rehashed multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 lol, no one was freaking out, then someone said people were freaking out and a shytstorm ensues. Phrases I’m looking forward to never hearing again “It hasn’t been sampled” and “anything can happen”, it has been sampled, and anything most certainly can’t happen. Some people were hoping for a classic panhandle hooker, looks pretty unlikely. Some will still see snow, lets move on. I always thought it would cut...just not a Des Moines Hooker.....confusing say the least. Never like our big snows to have the center go north of us...in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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