A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nah, it's just reality at this point. 12z NAM looks awfully similar to the Euro which shows the dry air monster sucking the life out it here. Plus like I said earlier...we get stuck in the middle between the upper low to the west and the "too late for LAF" developing OV system. Places to the south and east should make out fine as the OV system transverses east/northeast. I'd put you down for 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm sticking to my guns of 4-7 inches. All the factors are coming together across Southeastern and Eastern Indiana and a good chunk of Ohio for a really nice hit. Wouldn't be surprised if there are a few rumbles of thunder, particularly in Southeastern Indiana. the nam and gfs have both shown heavier precip coming into western OH along i-70 but not making it to central OH. instead it's pivoting a bit north of us as it heads east and then redevelops a bit to our east as the low strengthens right before it transfers. It's kind of a mini version of a classic double barrel CMH screw job. ILN mentioned in yesterdays AFD that they were not concerned about a weakening of precip because the h7 and 850lows all remained closed over OH... ....we'll see i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'd put you down for 2-3". Not a bad call. I'm thinking 1-3" after seeing all of the relative 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not a bad call. I'm thinking 1-3" after seeing all of the relative 12z guidance. 6z hi-res NMM and ARW both look pretty good down there. Problem is this event will be so slow and lame, the first inch may sublimate before the second falls, ok j/k but you get my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tricky call for NE Ohio. NAM and GFS have been consistent on a 6"+ event for 2 days now. I think a conservative 4-7" call would work here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 6z hi-res NMM and ARW both look pretty good down there. Problem is this event will be so slow and lame, the first inch may sublimate before the second falls, ok j/k but you get my point. Meh, HI-RES models been taken to the woodshed on this one. It'll be a frustrating event trying to saturate the column here. Seems I may be bad luck on this one as I'm driving north to IKK this afternoon for a couple day stay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 the nam and gfs have both shown heavier precip coming into western OH along i-70 but not making it to central OH. instead it's pivoting a bit north of us as it heads east and then redevelops a bit to our east as the low strengthens right before it transfers. It's kind of a mini version of a classic double barrel CMH screw job. ILN mentioned in yesterdays AFD that they were not concerned about a weakening of precip because the h7 and 850lows all remained closed over OH... ....we'll see i guess. I'm sticking to 4-6. Maybe the lower QPF verifies and we only get 4....That's still in my range, but I with the higher ratios and extra back end snow showers tomorrow evening I am a bit more optimistic on at least 5. Some isolated areas, especially just north of I-70, may get 6+. Remember it doesn't take much error in the models with very cold air to add an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 quick write up from Matt Powers, wx lab manager at COD, have put of few of his discussions on eastern. I'm going to be really interested to see how much snow we get tomorrow. The track of the upper low is a bit south/west but, looking at the s/wv trof from 700-500, along with the favorable area of DGZ (and a deep layer, at that!), I think the low moisture values and weaker UVV's will be compensated for. My guess is that we should see 4" or so out of this, give or take. There is easily a 100-150mb deep DGZ tomorrow and should go on for nearly 12 hours. The Omega values are a little low but, still, could be a healthy snow total. Ratios will be pretty high, too. Just have to watch this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is anyone else having a problem accessing Environment Canda? I keep getting an internet connection error everytime I tried to go there, but it can't be nothing wrong with it if I can come here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM looks like the RGEM with that small strip of heavier snow from IND to Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GGEM looks like the RGEM with that small strip of heavier snow from IND to Dayton. yep, canadian definitely likes the i-70 (or just north of it)....special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is anyone else having a problem accessing Environment Canda? I keep getting an internet connection error everytime I tried to go there, but it can't be nothing wrong with it if I can come here. No issues on my end. Here's the 12z GGEM on e-Wall if that's what you're looking for: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice area of LES in the MKE area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Nice area of LES in the MKE area. Where's BowMe at? This is going to be a decent little event for MKE it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You know, I'm kind of surprised that LMK didn't go for WSW as opposed to the WWA they issued, considering the track record I have seen from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 dont think I have ever seen LES come in from the southeast on the western side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, 12z Euro brings the 0.25" line up through Chicago, southern MI (including BTL) and then up to the thumb. YYZ makes out well too. Pretty good jump north versus the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, 12z Euro brings the 0.25" line up through Chicago, southern MI (including BTL) and then up to the thumb. YYZ makes out well too. Pretty good jump north versus the 0z run. ya really, think the 0z run had 0.14" for ORD. with good ratios, decent lift, and the deep DGZ, we could near 4" in spots if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The v vel scream heavy snow potential from Southern Illinois through Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FWIW, 12z Euro brings the 0.25" line up through Chicago, southern MI (including BTL) and then up to the thumb. YYZ makes out well too. Pretty good jump north versus the 0z run. okk is .32 and laf is .3 which is fine given the ratios. (You might bust low with your call!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 slightly OT but awesome http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~tomw/wisgifloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 okk is .32 and laf is .3 which is fine given the ratios. (You might bust low with your call!) Maybe. I'm riding the Alek train for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The v vel scream heavy snow potential from Southern Illinois through Central Ohio. PIA to 1H2 should to fairly well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 slightly OT but awesome http://www.ssec.wisc...wisgifloop.html very cool. they always have the best sat maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The v vel scream heavy snow potential from Southern Illinois through Central Ohio. interesting. Just watched jb's vid on the storm. He has his axis of heaviest snow (not including coastal of course), running from s. IN to MD....Actually a bit south of i-70. His reasoning is based on the following the -8 850 line. Still have yet to see the models, other than the ggem to some extent, show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 looking at soundings for northern IL, the 12z NAM is showing a 200mb or deeper DGZ from 6z tues to 18z tues. nearing 300mb deep from 6z-9z! very impressive so say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iu2001grad Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I rarely post on here..but all the local Indy weathercasters moved their totals down on the noon news. I find that surprising...anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I rarely post on here..but all the local Indy weathercasters moved their totals down on the noon news. I find that surprising...anyone else? I assume they did because their in-house 12z models lowered snowfall amounts. I believe most of them are WRF derived. I could be wrong though... BTW, I'd take it with a grain of salt. There was a couple of storms last winter where WISH-TV had stupid meager amounts for LAF, which ended busting terribly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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