FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 definitely further north , probably not as heavy as NAM but the precip is further north. Theres a max of .50" by 60 hours around ATL to AHN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 looking great for n ga and ne alabama at 60. hopefully on this run it keeps on going up into nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @66 GSP gets nailed, the 850 is rising but hopefully we keep a snow profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @69 probably around .50 has falling in CLT looks to be all snow this is a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yep! And already wetter than the 18 GFS into the upstate at 63 @66 GSP gets nailed, the 850 is rising but hopefully we keep a snow profile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @66 GSP gets nailed, the 850 is rising but hopefully we keep a snow profile just saw that. 850 south of the northern third or so of ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Lookout will like this, his house is bullseye at atleast 1". Major ATL to AHN snow. Theres even a tongue of -4 air down western SC into Athens at 60 hours. Obviosly much better for NC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yes. Lookout will like this, his house is bullseye at atleast 1". Major ATL to AHN snow. Theres even a tongue of -4 air down western SC into Athens at 60 hours. Obviosly much better for NC as well. yep! wonder where he is (lookout). maybe he couldnt handle the pressure lol at 72 the 850 is north of ga, but looks like the bulk of the precip is over for n ga by then edited to add: still some light precip at 78, frz drizzle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This isn't as wet as the 18z GFS but it sure as hell wasn't the 00z NAM...just shows the models still can't get a handle on the qpf again this is probably gonna be a nowcast situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run of the GFS definitely made the NAM look screwy haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the good news for my area to CLT is the bulk of the .75" falls before we have worries of a changeover. It held the trend of 18z to have a max of precip over northern and eastern GA to the western Carolinas and esp SC and southern NC, probably seeing the coastal trough axis with some low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Sadly for RDU verbatim it's mainly ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This isn't as wet as the 18z GFS but it sure as hell wasn't the 00z NAM...just shows the models still can't get a handle on the qpf again this is probably gonna be a nowcast situation winter storms usually are for the se unfortunately. i agree, things look great, but until i see the radar lighting up, precip moving in and see nice, cold temps i dont know that i will believe it. its over by 84 in nga and the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 With right around .75" QPF by 66 it looks like a solid 6-8" snow for the ATL metro, more toward AHN. Weird how there is so little precip over C AL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 There is a serious QPF issue with this run....nice streak of >.75" QPF thru MS then it vanishes to <.50" thru BHM and then it starts again from ATL thru Foothills house. Still a good run in my opinion and very similar to 18z run minus that odd QPF in AL. Edit: just notice I posted the AL QPF thing at the same time as Itunis. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the good news for my area to CLT is the bulk of the .75" falls before we have worries of a changeover. It held the trend of 18z to have a max of precip over northern and eastern GA to the western Carolinas and esp SC and southern NC, probably seeing the coastal trough axis with some low level convergence. SV snowmap has us in 4-8 and Clover SC in 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I know we are all watching the 00z run on the gfs, but i was wondering if someone could explain this to me? At 84 hrs on the 18z run of the gfs this is the sounding( for RDU : which looks like an all snow sounding.. yet on bufkit, for hours 81 and 84 it shows freezing rain or drizzle, losing nearly .20'' of an inc of QPF of which to my eye should be snow. Could anyone explain why there is a difference? RDU BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run of the GFS definitely made the NAM look screwy haha. Yep... the gfs pretty much held steady from the 18z run... its obvious that the nam is the outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BAMN the good news for my area to CLT is the bulk of the .75" falls before we have worries of a changeover. It held the trend of 18z to have a max of precip over northern and eastern GA to the western Carolinas and esp SC and southern NC, probably seeing the coastal trough axis with some low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks like the bulk of GSO and RDU's moisture will come with 850s above 0, unless I'm seeing something incorrectly, and surface temps below freezing... i just hope its sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 SV snowmap has us in 4-8 and Clover SC in 8-12 Aint nothing good ever come out of clover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 For a run or two before this, there has been hinting at a precip minimum near the FL panhandle. Now it just seems to have engulfed the whole state. Not sure exactly why that would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 BAMN I'll take that...with my location and that QPF it would probably be 10" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Where are you guys getting the GFS data so quickly and is it free? Twisterdata still stuck on hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the good news for my area to CLT is the bulk of the .75" falls before we have worries of a changeover. It held the trend of 18z to have a max of precip over northern and eastern GA to the western Carolinas and esp SC and southern NC, probably seeing the coastal trough axis with some low level convergence. You know you would think the higher resolution NAM would pick up on that better than the GFS would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 BAMN Oh....thank you very much....much better for the I-85 boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 So the NAM keeps us from getting such an ice storm in CAE, then the GFS says we will get more ice instead.... this whole storm needs to move North, ice sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Sadly for RDU verbatim it's mainly ice Yep, it looks like we get maybe 2" of snow then mainly ice afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0 UTC GFS. This is the time frame where i start actually looking at the snowfall forecast maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 84 after 4-5 inches of snow, probably getting sleet still and at a pretty good clip, thanks to coastal taken over. Heaviest qpf run so far for MBY. Already way over .75 and still coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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