Ji Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are we still in the sparse Canadien data period? When can we lose that excuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 For Maryland, 12Z is worse than 6z...might be better for VA though. The evolution is pretty similar. Please don't just look at QPF, dude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, I agree. This run really didn't do anything whacky from 00Z. I think that is a win for the GFS. i think we're getting into range where we can start to believe a bit... i guess i'd like to see the ggem come off its mecs solution just since i dont believe it, but i'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Are we still in the sparse Canadien data period? When can we lose that excuse? No, supposedly the data is onshore, so we can lose that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 i think we're getting into range where we can start to believe a bit... i guess i'd like to see the ggem come off its mecs solution just since i dont believe it, but i'd take it. There is no way the GGEM verifies or keeps its 0z solution. I don't think even the weeniest of weenies bought that one. It was the only model showing something like that. It has nowhere to go but down at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nobody probably cares but the GFS through 162 is about to plow the arctic front into the plains in impressive fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nobody probably cares but the GFS through 162 is about to plow the arctic front into the plains in impressive fashion. this is AMERICAN! we care.. at least a little tiny bit (if it's going to impact the east especially). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this is AMERICAN! we care.. at least a little tiny bit (if it's going to impact the east especially). In this fashion, extrapolating ahead it potentially would. Has a Euro look to the upper baroclinic wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this is AMERICAN! Northeast Ric-Bos AMERICAN we care.. at least a little tiny bit (if it's going to impact the east especially). Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z UKMET at 120 hours. Has a surface low tucked under Long Island. Rainshadow says the UKMET has not verified well this winter but this is now the second run it has showed a solution closer to the coast. Not sure what if did before 120 since the hour before this is 96 but I can post that too. 120 Hours 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Fixed LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The evolution is pretty similar. Please don't just look at QPF, dude... Yes but this is the 12Z model thread, im simply comparing the look to other runs, its a little drier to the north...Why is that not something to note? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z UKMET at 120 hours. Has a surface low tucked under Long Island. Rainshadow says the UKMET has not verified well this winter but this is now the second run it has showed a solution closer to the coast. Not sure what if did before 120 since the hour before this is 96 but I can post that too. 120 Hours 96 hours ugh, that's looks incredibly weak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ugh, that's looks incredibly weak.. I thought so as well, but last night it was weak on that map and ewall had it much stronger, so I urge caution as the SLP placement may be correct but the pressure may not be. Its a french site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 In this fashion, extrapolating ahead it potentially would. Has a Euro look to the upper baroclinic wave. almost looks like a thunderstorm line bringing it in at 192....except with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I thought so as well, but last night it was weak on that map and ewall had it much stronger, so I urge caution as the SLP placement may be correct but the pressure may not be. Its a french site. gotcha...that explains it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Something that has peeked me interest is the potential for a Ice storm for the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and others for next Weekend, here is the 00z Day 9-10 EURO and todays 12z GFS, I highlighted where there seems to be a wedge setup by High Pressure in SE Canada. The GFS shows a low scooting north of the lakes, but the EURO holds the wedge and develops a low off the coast. Nothing to lose sleep over, but some potential for an "Icy" situation in the big cities in the East IMO. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gotcha...that explains it Now now, they bailed us out during WWII, oh wait, never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 No, supposedly the data is onshore, so we can lose that one. Rainshadow says players on the field with the 12z Saturday runs. He was referring to all of them, not just the arctic one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM on board for light snow for Balt/Phl/DE/NJ tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Something that has peeked me interest is the potential for a Ice storm for the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and others for next Weekend, here is the 00z Day 9-10 EURO and todays 12z GFS, I highlighted where there seems to be a wedge setup by High Pressure in SE Canada. The GFS shows a low scooting north of the lakes, but the EURO holds the wedge and develops a low off the coast. Nothing to lose sleep over, but some potential for an "Icy" situation in the big cities in the East IMO. Thoughts? Yeah we will definitely have to see and wait. There is a ton of variability in this pattern break down, but a ton of potential. It all depends on the strength and orientation of the ejecting wave, whether it comes in 1 or 2 pieces, etc. Tiny amplification/strength differences will make huge changes with such an extreme low level baroclinic zone. CMC is junk overall, but it shows another threat type...which would support your thoughts. Could see anything from a deep trough to a very low amplitude intense jet crashing through the plains. A lot of variability but potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SUNY MM5 sticks a 989 mb low off the Jersey shore for tomorrow..be interesting to see if we can get some precip thrown back our way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah we will definitely have to see and wait. There is a ton of variability in this pattern break down, but a ton of potential. It all depends on the strength and orientation of the ejecting wave, whether it comes in 1 or 2 pieces, etc. Tiny amplification/strength differences will make huge changes with such an extreme low level baroclinic zone. CMC is junk overall, but it shows another threat type...which would support your thoughts. Could see anything from a deep trough to a very low amplitude intense jet crashing through the plains. A lot of variability but potential as well. You guys are talking about the storm right before the really cold stuff comes in, yes? God, I really hope there's not an ice storm next weekend. My wife's due date is that Tuesday the 18th and I really don't want to be trying to get to the hospital with ice on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You guys are talking about the storm right before the really cold stuff comes in, yes? God, I really hope there's not an ice storm next weekend. My wife's due date is that Tuesday the 18th and I really don't want to be trying to get to the hospital with ice on the roads. Its a long ways out, I just thought the Day 9-10 EURO and GFS have a nice wedge cut into the East, but like the met. said it depends on where the pieces of energy eject etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Its a long ways out, I just thought the Day 9-10 EURO and GFS have a nice wedge cut into the East, but like the met. said it depends on where the pieces of energy eject etc. Obviously and it's good to know so that I can keep an eye on it. Just expressing my displeasure with that potential solution... By the way, grammarian in me can't let it pass... it's piqued, not peeked or peaked... although, peaked would be closer to what you mean than peeked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12Z GFS ensemble mean gives birth to a healthy SECS for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 12z ensembles mean at 108 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 gfs loses the brutal cold wave. Brings in the arctic front to about the Ohio river and shunts it east and out. by the 20-23rd of January there is virtually no cold air in the conus or canada, (relative to average). wonder if it's just a hiccup. I noticed the euro was also pushing back the arrival of driving in the cold in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yes but this is the 12Z model thread, im simply comparing the look to other runs, its a little drier to the north...Why is that not something to note? I think you answered your own question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ggem still going with a weak double barrel...one over OH one right off the del marva at 108. gives lov'n to ohio and dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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