Dr No Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 No one down here should be rooting for the 12Z GFS depiction. That would be an awful screwing. Don't be fooled by the token snow we get. South of PHL would be totally shafted. We might need to strap in and accept that this could be a huge, huge winter for NYC. Can we cling to this tighlty for comfort? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Ha, yeah Wes, 12z GFS looks interesting day 6/7. I don't think it's that interesting for us, the upper low needs to get to our south which usually doesn't happen with shortwaves digging out of canada. If I lived in NYC, I'd be really interested. Here I think thre is still lots of work that needs to be done and more often than not, closed upper lows on the gfs end up farther n than forecast though I guess the blocking could help keep it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I don't think it's that interesting for us, the upper low needs to get to our south which usually doesn't happen with shortwaves digging out of canada. If I lived in NYC, I'd be really interested. Here I think thre is still lots of work that needs to be done and more often than not, closed upper lows on the gfs end up farther n than forecast though I guess the blocking could help keep it south. Quite a few of the 0Z ECE members, at least when I look at the spaghetti, have something similar to what the GFS is showing at 150hr. Those members were to the north of what the GFS shows, though. Our best hope would be a toned down repeat of last February 10th, and what GFS and ECE are showing is a long way away from that. In fact even the GFS is about 175 miles away from it. One might want to hope that the energy shown entering the Baja region around the same time might offer an opportunity for us around the 216hr timeframe. The GFS seems to loose that feature at model truncation time, but, if the 144 - 168hr GFS gets to verify it won't matter anyhow as that little guy would end up brutally, brutally suppressed...and hurled out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 What a bleak New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Can we cling to this tighlty for comfort? http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html I'm not going to say to totally disregard the DGEX, but with respect to this year, the DGEX forecasts have not yielded anything for us last year was another story the only thing the DGEX does is suggest to me the Euro may come south at 12Z, only to pull us in and then expel us within 48 hours like a load of dung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Quite a few of the 0Z ECE members, at least when I look at the spaghetti, have something similar to what the GFS is showing at 150hr. Those members were to the north of what the GFS shows, though. Our best hope would be a toned down repeat of last February 10th, and what GFS and ECE are showing is a long way away from that. In fact even the GFS is about 175 miles away from it. One might want to hope that the energy shown entering the Baja region around the same time might offer an opportunity for us around the 216hr timeframe. The GFS seems to loose that feature at model truncation time, but, if the 144 - 168hr GFS gets to verify it won't matter anyhow as that little guy would end up brutally, brutally suppressed...and hurled out to sea. Your posts always raise my spirits.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 We're all overlooking at least an opportunity late Wednesday and Thursday as a piece of the 4 corners energy comes out and possibly phases with a s/w dropping SE through the rockies. With the fast flow at 500MB it wouldn't be huge, but if amped enough, would cause moisture to come north our way. It's what I posted in jest with the DGEX link, and Today's 12Z GGEM bit on this. I'd like to see the Euro to start to pick up on the opportunity as well. Guidance shows a radically different solution every run due to the complex pattern, but by Monday these players should be in good sampling areas and we'll know if it's a legit opp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 We're all overlooking at least an opportunity late Wednesday and Thursday as a piece of the 4 corners energy comes out and possibly phases with a s/w dropping SE through the rockies. With the fast flow at 500MB it wouldn't be huge, but if amped enough, would cause moisture to come north our way. It's what I posted in jest with the DGEX link, and Today's 12Z GGEM bit on this. I'd like to see the Euro to start to pick up on the opportunity as well. Guidance shows a radically different solution every run due to the complex pattern, but by Monday these players should be in good sampling areas and we'll know if it's a legit opp.. yeah, I was just going to post this map when I saw your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'm not going to say to totally disregard the DGEX, but with respect to this year, the DGEX forecasts have not yielded anything for us last year was another story the only thing the DGEX does is suggest to me the Euro may come south at 12Z, only to pull us in and then expel us within 48 hours like a load of dung Ugh...you should. Always. Your posts always raise my spirits.... I'm sorry. I had a very different tune last year. I don't think this winter is hopeless, though. Just the next couple weeks. Actually the last half of January is starting to look a little bleak too. At least it's cold! If you'd like I could switch to hyping each and every long shot event...you know the ones where only a single deterministic model buys into the idea...then simply stop posting for a few days when it becomes obvious that I'm going to be wrong. Aren't you the guy with a place in Deep Creek Lake? If so, why do you care? That place manages to get a foot every time the 700mb RH ekes above 30% or so. We're all overlooking at least an opportunity late Wednesday and Thursday as a piece of the 4 corners energy comes out and possibly phases with a s/w dropping SE through the rockies. With the fast flow at 500MB it wouldn't be huge, but if amped enough, would cause moisture to come north our way. Is this the energy that's getting sheared off in pieces from the Baja/SoCAL vort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 No one down here should be rooting for the 12Z GFS depiction. That would be an awful screwing. Don't be fooled by the token snow we get. South of PHL would be totally shafted. We might need to strap in and accept that this could be a huge, huge winter for NYC. And yet you were "fooled" by the token snow that the 0z GFS of a week ago depicted, and when I suggested a 12/30/2000 type shaft, you told me to STFU. I'm pretty sure that the models showed at least some snow prior to 12/30/2000, and definitely also the late February storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Ugh...you should. Always. I'm sorry. I had a very different tune last year. I don't think this winter is hopeless, though. Just the next couple weeks. Actually the last half of January is starting to look a little bleak too. At least it's cold! If you'd like I could switch to hyping each and every long shot event...you know the ones where only a single deterministic model buys into the idea...then simply stop posting for a few days when it becomes obvious that I'm going to be wrong. Aren't you the guy with a place in Deep Creek Lake? If so, why do you care? That place manages to get a foot every time the 700mb RH ekes above 30% or so. Keep doing what you are doing. I am just frustrated. I can get a snow fix at Deep Creek for sure. I just want some IMBY as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 And yet you were "fooled" by the token snow that the 0z GFS of a week ago depicted, and when I suggested a 12/30/2000 type shaft, you told me to STFU. Thanks, Fozz. What is your elevation again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 on the bright side, it is 51 degrees with a 33 degree dp at noon in NYC today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Is this the energy that's getting sheared off in pieces from the Baja/SoCAL vort? Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 better yet, its 53/42 in Boston at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 on the bright side, it is 51 degrees with a 33 degree dp at noon in NYC today In a week they will get a nice reinforcement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 In a week they will get a nice reinforcement. I don't know how much they'll get, but I'm sure Boston will do fine most up in PHL on north thought they would keep their snow through the warm up, but that's not happening except for those who go 18"+, and event some of them near the ocean will likely loose it crazy how fast it settles/melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Todays 12z gfs for Boston looks like the models did for us last year....3' of snow. Even Philly looks to get about 7" from todays run. I know it won't happen like this so save it....i'm just saying what the model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 looking at the 2 day Euro, this run may be kinder to us, or maybe less kind to NE with the miller B, but I'm speculating based on 48 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 looking at the 2 day Euro, this run may be kinder to us, or maybe less kind to NE with the miller B, but I'm speculating based on 48 hr map I don't know, maybe I should wait I thought the Canadian vortex was better but it may not make a diff after all we'll see in a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It's good to know early on this one....log on check the model then log off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It's good to know early on this one....log on check the model then log off Agree..no more of this hard on the heart crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It's good to know early on this one....log on check the model then log off If you already know, then there no point in even logging on to check the models, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The Euro shows next to nothing south of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 If you already know, then there no point in even logging on to check the models, right? Ok good point...but you know what my pessimistic mind is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 looks like its "fluke" time again folks its all we've got for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro blows... For everyone but ME. Something in the GOM at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro blows... For everyone but ME. Something in the GOM at 192 Doesn't seem like surface temps are really all that cold despite frigid 850's and the PV on top of us....on the GFS anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro blows... For everyone but ME. Something in the GOM at 192 probably the SW low that is supposed to be parked out there a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 No high hopes for much of anything here in the first half of January. Despite the cold air and storm threats, I'm thinking we'll end up with typical Nina snow totals for this winter. A shame really - so much cold air to work with and a pattern so close to what we need, but just not close enough. I guess we're paying for last winter's snow bounty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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