Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 You'll probably get more in Montreal than here in Ottawa. You guys had a pretty good December - 72cm I think. im having a hard time believing these measurements taken at dorval 72 cm of snow but never more than 12cm on the ground? it seems we had less snow than that but defintely a greater snowdepth than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Latest GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 im having a hard time believing these measurements taken at dorval 72 cm of snow but never more than 12cm on the ground? it seems we had less snow than that but defintely a greater snowdepth than that. Dorval is awful for snow measurements, as is Pearson. If you look at data going back to the 60s you'll see that they always seem to have abnormally low snow depth measurements at those two airports. Ottawa's airport, by contrast is great with regard to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Latest GFS I would so like this to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Blizzard of 1937 http://www.britishpathe.com/record.php?id=14048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Blizzard of 1937 http://www.britishpa...rd.php?id=14048 Cool. Vintage material with a British accent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Dorval is awful for snow measurements, as is Pearson. If you look at data going back to the 60s you'll see that they always seem to have abnormally low snow depth measurements at those two airports. Ottawa's airport, by contrast is great with regard to that. yes i agree ottawa airport is the standard against which all canadian stations should be held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I find it odd that Environment Canada is forecasting "a mix of sun and cloud" for ottawa on Sunday when the GFS has consistently been calling for snow. I guess the Canadian model doesn't see anything for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 weak clipper crossing the region now. best activity has been south of ottawa along the international border. RGEM/GFS did well with this, NAM was consistently too wet north. i dont think i can qualify this as a proper W-E synoptic event given its overall shoddiness, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I find it odd that Environment Canada is forecasting "a mix of sun and cloud" for ottawa on Sunday when the GFS has consistently been calling for snow. I guess the Canadian model doesn't see anything for our area. still a lot of inconsistencies between the models in a very complex pattern. could see some snow, could see partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like LO kicks back into gear again tonight and tomorrow. Looking to pick up a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 About 2.5 inches and counting from this clipper/enhancement so far. Enough to not see the grass anymore so had to snowblow. Its still coming down pretty good but its only sticking to where theres already snow, so its not really sticking to the streets/shoveled sidewalks. Not a bad little event. Looking foward to Thursdays. Heres what the BUF NWS has to say... THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BURGEONING AREA OF MINOR SYNOPTIC ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. MAY ALSO BE LOOKING AT LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE GIVEN SUPPORTIVE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT FETCH...ESPECIALLY OFF ERIE. IT/S A LITTLE EARLY TO PINPOINT HOW THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PLAY INTO ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 About 2.5 inches and counting from this clipper/enhancement so far. Enough to not see the grass anymore so had to snowblow. Its still coming down pretty good but its only sticking to where theres already snow, so its not really sticking to the streets/shoveled sidewalks. Not a bad little event. Looking foward to Thursdays. Heres what the BUF NWS has to say... Same here, about 2" fell overnight and probably another 1" so far during the day. Some nice bursts of +SN over the last hour in Lancaster. Good to finally see a clipper-type system move through with lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Same here, about 2" fell overnight and probably another 1" so far during the day. Some nice bursts of +SN over the last hour in Lancaster. Good to finally see a clipper-type system move through with lake enhancement. same here in Eggertsville. Radar shows a large increase in the snow in the past half hour. Snow is pretty much moderate but every so often theres burst of heavy snow with big flakes. Im liking this clipper event. Really getting me excited for wednesdsy night through Friday.This snow should serve as a nice base for the upcoming snow. Id be so happy with 1 more inch today and 4 inches from the next clipper\enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 3.5 inches so far. Snow has just recently let up but that shouldnt last long according to radar. LES advisory for southern erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like a nice 6-12" event here near MBY.....SU campus has turned green over vacation! Complex situation for Thurs.- weekend....obviously. I love reading all the threads ripping this or that model apart because of "this....or ....that". This is about as difficult an atmosphere to model/forecast as one can get. One theme that does seem to be shaking out of all the guidance is that if the storm is close enough to the coast, someone should see some inverted trough driven convergence.....enough to place a nice stripe of decent accumulating snows for someone in Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Moderate steady snow again in Eggertsville. 30 Degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Looks like a nice band of snow setting up off the east end of lake Ontario. Wish it would drop south and set up over southern oswego county for a while lol. Looks like it started earlier than expected maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 ON THURSDAY...THE FUJIWARA EFFECT OF THE TWIN H5 LOWS WILL RESULT INTHE WRN VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MIGRATE TO SRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL ALLOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCMENT TO TAKE PLACE IN AN ALREADY MOISTENING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD. THIS LAKE ENRICHED MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE ACCUMULATIONS FROM BUFFALO NORTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY EXCEED 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...HGT FALLS AND SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Very informative AFD from BUF on the complex pattern evolving this week. Hopefully we can cash in on some "Fujiwara" induced lake enhacement on the niagara frontier later this week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 NAM wants Upstate to stay alert...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Very informative AFD from BUF on the complex pattern evolving this week. Hopefully we can cash in on some "Fujiwara" induced lake enhacement on the niagara frontier later this week.... NWS BUF AFD also saying this..."THE MAIN H5 VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF FLUFFY SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 3-4K FT THICK DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOW AGGREGATION ZONE AT LOW LEVELS. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS 12 HOUR PERIOD. CAT POPS WILL BE USED FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know there is alot to track right now with synoptic, LES, etc. But this artic outbreak next week looks pretty extreme for our area. LEK, what kind of response do you think the lakes will have with this amount of cold weather? I know we can never pin point details this far out, but I would think there would be some kind of response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 Got just over an inch as the band drifted through. Lots of graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2011 Share Posted January 4, 2011 18z gfs Might just be wishful thinking but the gfs seems to have a decent handle on this inverted trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 I know there is alot to track right now with synoptic, LES, etc. But this artic outbreak next week looks pretty extreme for our area. LEK, what kind of response do you think the lakes will have with this amount of cold weather? I know we can never pin point details this far out, but I would think there would be some kind of response. Wind direction will be key....a WNW wind would help the downstream snowgrowth area by inducing some warmer air into the band's eastern most extent (ie Oswego, Onondaga Cos. and points SE). With a more NW flow, the short fetch will presumably minimize the flake size for the lack of the above mentioned process, thus a low level spray of tiny flakes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Blizzard of 1937 http://www.britishpa...rd.php?id=14048 Interesting...thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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