LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Reshuffling the pattern.....Mixed signals as we head into the heart of winter, but previous torch forecasts for Jan. may have been premature. Maybe more synoptic possibilities for week 2 and beyond: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Look forward to more info, thanks for the new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looking at rain and maybe 40's to near 50 for new years day. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looking at rain and maybe 40's to near 50 for new years day. WOW! Not really that surprising. Actually looking forward to the mild stretch Thurs-Sat. Should be pretty nice with sun and mild temps. Gonna be in the High Peaks and while I love me some winter, not having it be 5 with 35 mph winds and a wind chill of -9,000 F is nice as well. Sat. night into Sunday looks like the dud of the bunch with rain- to Front passage and snow flurries. Whatevs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I'm going to miss my snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Not really that surprising. Actually looking forward to the mild stretch Thurs-Sat. Should be pretty nice with sun and mild temps. Gonna be in the High Peaks and while I love me some winter, not having it be 5 with 35 mph winds and a wind chill of -9,000 F is nice as well. Sat. night into Sunday looks like the dud of the bunch with rain- to Front passage and snow flurries. Whatevs... LOL...Been there when out snowmobiling in Wyoming really cuts down on the fun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 winds to near 40mph now and bone numbing sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 LEK, GFS at 12z looked to turn things more westerly and at least throw some LES up my way during the Tues-Wed time frame before the warm up. Looked a little colder this run too.. Probably grasping at straws, but would love to see at least a couple inches. You are right. Not used to being patient up this way. I had over 21" of snow during New Years week last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 LEK, GFS at 12z looked to turn things more westerly and at least throw some LES up my way during the Tues-Wed time frame before the warm up. Looked a little colder this run too.. Probably grasping at straws, but would love to see at least a couple inches. You are right. Not used to being patient up this way. I had over 21" of snow during New Years week last year It looks like a trough slides through the region and weakens as it does so, which should help to align the winds vertically, and create better convergence, all the while slowly backing the winds to a 285-270 direction by late Tues. night....850's will be marginal at that time, but upslope should provide a little boost. Not quite sure of totals for the Tug, but I'd say a first guess of 5-10" would be in the cards....contingent upon how quickly the band gets up that way, and if we can quell some of the warm advection at 850, to give a few more hours of convergence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 BTW, GFS 12z meso just came out and it has a pretty intense band sitting over C/W Onondaga Co. and into Madison county for a good 12 hours.....first model to retard the northward movement. All NAM derived meso's steadily move the band into Oswego Co. That said, GFS meso still provides areas of the Tug with some lake enhanced upslope starting tomorrow afternoon morning.... http://www.erh.noaa....s/precip03.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looks like Syracuse has the chance to break that all time record after all, and we get in on some flakes as well. Good for everyone. It will be interesting to see how it plays out with the marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 8" here from the storm somehow. Doesn't match the 0.5" measurement 10 miles away in Jefferson very well but I sure was plowing something this morning. I hate the upcoming thaw, but if that is the Jan.thaw, than I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 8" here from the storm somehow. Doesn't match the 0.5" measurement 10 miles away in Jefferson very well but I sure was plowing something this morning. I hate the upcoming thaw, but if that is the Jan.thaw, than I will take it. I started this post 2 hours ago but the (satillite) internet has been off and on. I took the sled out for a quick spin and spooked 3 or 4 deer eating some of the apple tree prunings I left at the base of one of my apple trees. I felt bad but they will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Lake Effect Snow Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY217 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL EFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK ANDNORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO TUESDAY....A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO PARTS OFCENTRAL NEW YORK INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTOF THE FINGER LAKES IN TOMPKINS AND TIOGA COUNTIES... WHERE UP TO10 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.NYZ017-018-044-281930-/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.Y.0015.101227T1917Z-101228T2300Z/SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-CORTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...SYRACUSE...CORTLAND217 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKEEFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS: CORTLAND... CAYUGA AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES.* HAZARDS: LAKE EFFECT SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS: ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 7 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.* TEMPERATURES: MID TEENS TO MID 20S.* WINDS: NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.* IMPACTS: BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECASTTHAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BEINTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USECAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BYCALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-800-759-2992...OR BY EMAIL [email protected]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 timelapse video TheRealeDeal..Posted this link for a timelapse video of the Blizzard. From Belmar, NJ. On her station at WKTV...it is just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 timelapse video TheRealeDeal..Posted this link for a timelapse video of the Blizzard. From Belmar, NJ. On her station at WKTV...it is just awesome. AWESOME!! Funny how many times they had to move the clock. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looks like BUF thinking 2-4" up my way. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looks like BUF thinking 2-4" up my way. Better than nothing. Unfortunately I think 1-2 is more likely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 According to 9WSYR....2-6" for SYR tomorrow. All time snowiest month? Who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 According to 9WSYR....2-6" for SYR tomorrow. All time snowiest month? Who knows.... If the setup had been a bit less progressive (ie... LP into S. NE) and SYR had got in on the CCB of this past system, then LES, SYR could have pushed toward 100" for the month....but, I'm afraid that is not in the cards unless this event over performs by a factor of 5 or so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 So what of the duration of the late-week "torch". Are we really looking at +10F anomalies through Jan 10th? What is the evidence for or against this happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 So what of the duration of the late-week "torch". Are we really looking at +10F anomalies through Jan 10th? What is the evidence for or against this happening? Probably 3-4 days of + anonomolies, followed by "seasonably cool" temps for a coupled days with a slow moderation thereafter....from there, models diverge as to whether we re-torch or setup a nice broad, but weak, PV in Central Canada...which would buffer the Pacific flow that is forcast to develop. All models show little to no chance of cross polar flow for the foreseeable future (that always can change within the models) but we certainly can keep our modified "cool" airmass around for a bit, and not have it effect our snow vs. rain chances, if we just keep heights down a bit. Sun angle is essentially as low as it gets, and airmasses at this time of year will moderate their slowest, especially given some snow cover around us, even if somewhat patchy in nature....though it will certainly take a bit of a beating by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 What's the definition of a blizzard around this parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 from wktv blog The term 'blizzard' is often overused in hyper active weather reporting these days. Most snowstorms never become blizzards, even when they are given that name mistakenly. A true blizzard must have 3 consecutive hours of the following conditions for one location: 1) Sustained winds over 35mph 2) Visibility a 1/4 mile or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 im defintely wary of the blocking for my area, but i think it could relax enough to allow all of NYS into some events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 from wktv blog The term 'blizzard' is often overused in hyper active weather reporting these days. Most snowstorms never become blizzards, even when they are given that name mistakenly. A true blizzard must have 3 consecutive hours of the following conditions for one location: 1) Sustained winds over 35mph 2) Visibility a 1/4 mile or less what about the wind-chill factor also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Good call! Looking at things this morning, we will be lucky to get 1". Just flurries here and nothing much on radar. I'm glad we still have lots of winter to go up here in the Tug. By the time we have the warm up, I will be lucky to have 6" of snow pack if that. The winter economy is going to take a hit unless things pick up soon. The trails are taking a beating. But I'm sure it will turn around at some point! You can't keep the Tug down forever Unfortunately I think 1-2 is more likely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Good call! Looking at things this morning, we will be lucky to get 1". Just flurries here and nothing much on radar. I'm glad we still have lots of winter to go up here in the Tug. By the time we have the warm up, I will be lucky to have 6" of snow pack if that. The winter economy is going to take a hit unless things pick up soon. The trails are taking a beating. But I'm sure it will turn around at some point! You can't keep the Tug down forever Yeah, the 850's came in a bit warmer, and I suspect the average lake temp has cooled more than suspected. Going forward, -12C 850's are what we are going to need to instigate any lake responses. Modeling for this "non" event was rather poor....qpf wise. Onto January, and a new pattern. If we see a nice south/central semi permanent vortex establish itself (as many models depict over the next couple weeks after our brief warmup) then our synoptic and Tug Hill LES event chances will certainly rise. This would be the type of pattern where the Tug quickly catches up and surpasses us lucky "December" folks. Though the models aren't depicting anything major yet, there are certainly some interesting potentials coming around the 7th or 8th...and then a few days later. Gonna be a cold mid month, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 what about the wind-chill factor also? Years ago air temperature was also a criterion for assessing blizzard conditions. In addition to wind speed. The temperature standard was in addition to heavy falling and/or blowing snow the air temp had to be 20F or colder; if 10F or less than SEVERE blizzard was tacked on (again temperature criteria had to also occur in conjunction with the threshold wind criteria). The eastern US forecast offices and public bemoaned the fact that while coastal storms produced as much snow as if not more than a Midwest cyclone did and often had more wind then some Midwest cyclones did, the temperature criterion would hardly ever be met, so Nor'easters would rarely if ever be called a "blizzard". So the thresholds for blizzard were changed to current vis and wind criteria. Wind chill was never ever considered or used in classifying a blizzard. IMO to get a "true" blizzard under current "classification" criteria in this day and age of ASOS, is near impossible. I think perception is more important if one has heavy falling and or significant blowing and drifting of snow for "several" hours then the perception of the storm being a blizzard is real. Also too by issuing blizzard warnings or a TV met saying local blizzard conditions are possible then this in a blunt way should convey to the public that this is not only going to be a significant winter storm but potentially dangerous and life-threatening then IMO the use of the "B" word is justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 reading through the NYC postmortem, seeing the radar images of superbands.......really reminds me that in terms of severe, nonstop winter weather, there have only been 2 such events here in the Nortrh Country that I can remember 93 Superstorm December 2007 storm with 6 hour Superband from hell even the storm which dumped over 2 feet in ottawa in march 08 did not have anywhere near sustained severe condiitions, maybe for a few hours, but a long durations snowfall that wasnt ferocious per se. i was in NYC for the feb 06 event (greatest snowfall ever in central park) and while the snowfall rates were impressive, the winds werent and thus the conditions were not as severe. ....not even as severe as the 2 events i listed above in a region well away from any water. in nyc, it would seem that the blizzard of 96 and this past event are the 2 most severe and ferocious in recent memory. it really puts in persepctive how rare it is to get into a severe defo band of snow with strong winds, that persists......both here, and there.....anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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