Stash Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow Andy, expecting a lot of shadowing in the typical areas of Washington/Rensselaer counties? That is one funky map that only a local micro climate expert would draw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is this the 2nd possible synoptic snowfall of the season for the LG / GFL area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Let's get an inch here Cuse! Nah, all joking aside, IDK what to expect. Won't really think to much about it until it's actually here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is this the 2nd screwed out of synoptic snowfall of the season for the LG / GFL area? Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 2nd Call: Overall I agree....it looks very good The inverted trough is going to make for a hard forecast. looking at the CAPE there will be quite a bit of instability it looks like the models what to push the forcing and instability up over CNY Depending on how fast this takes place will be the major deciding factor on the amount of snow we get. Overall we have a lot going in our favor. 1 Ample moisture through the upper levels 2 The low and mid level lapse rates are fairly steep 3 And cold low level temperatures. My call is for 10-16 on the Tug 4-6 for the Mohawk Valley A general 6-10 for areas outside the Mohawk Valley in CNY 6-10 for the areas north and south of Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That is one funky map that only a local micro climate expert would draw The same exact thing came across my mind too. It kind of looks like a screw in the middle holding the two pieces together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Quick thoughts and replies to above posts: 1) snowmap based on in house mesomodel, 12z NAM and WRF 4Km...GFS 12z actually has the Shadow until Saturday PM then shifts snow band NE. (Not buying GFS just yet) 2) As Tornado Girl noted other small scale factors will be huge especially where they come together in time and place. It may have some WINDEX type elements to it. 3) The shadow pattern over extreme ENY is because the winds are SE for a good chunk of the storm (or forecast to be) SE winds are great for shadowing much better than Easterlies. On the flip-side SE flow maximizes orographic lift across the Catskills and 'Dacks but also results in some shadowing across the Mohawk Valley especially along the River... 4) I am also concerned that TG agrees with me in "overall". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Quick thoughts and replies to above posts: 1) snowmap based on in house mesomodel, 12z NAM and WRF 4Km...GFS 12z actually has the Shadow until Saturday PM then shifts snow band NE. (Not buying GFS just yet) 2) As Tornado Girl noted other small scale factors will be huge especially where they come together in time and place. It may have some WINDEX type elements to it. 3) The shadow pattern over extreme ENY is because the winds are SE for a good chunk of the storm (or forecast to be) SE winds are great for shadowing much better than Easterlies. On the flip-side SE flow maximizes orographic lift across the Catskills and 'Dacks but also results in some shadowing across the Mohawk Valley especially along the River... 4) I am also concerned that TG agrees with me in "overall". Very funny....But, remember I know where you live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very funny....But, remember I know where you live I'm REALLY scared! I'll be waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm REALLY scared! LOL... I know... I'm harmless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anyone think a winter storm watch will be needed for Onondaga, or do the forecasted amounts not warrant one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL... I know... I'm harmless I believe you! I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 KALYjust extended the WSW to all of ENY and WNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 we need some synoptic stuff up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 48 hr qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is from KAlb. HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES IN 12 HOURS...OR 9 INCHES OR MORE IN 24 HOURS Andy, are you buying that for around here givin the wind direction you are talking about?? I may and probably am reading your post wrong,about the wind factor too, that is why I am asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the euro has been conssitently paltry throguhout this leadup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 as for up here, short terms modeling tends to bring the heavier qpf west of ottawa valley down towards eastern lake ontario upstate counties....but the recent global runs are focusing on the ottawa valley and points SE toewards st lawrence counties. it will be a narrow area of steadier qpf with this inverted trough like feature.....but confidence is increasing that at least a couple inches of snow will fall somewhere very near or in ottawa.....with an area of 3-6 inches (7-15cm) somewhere in eastern ontario/NNY. these setups are always tricky, and if we see continued enhancement, some surprise accumulations could fall in a lucky area in eastern ontario and the NNY region. eslewhere a general 1-3 inches (2-8 cm) can be expected. recall this will be a long duration event over a period of a couple days, so expect impact to be negligible unless a surprise heavier zone develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Closer you are to the mountains in Washington Cty the more you're screwed. East and South facing slopes in the Dacks get enhancement......Geez, I sound like a Viagra commercial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was in GFL on Tuesday (library and court building). You narrowly missed the mutha clipper. Dustings from Lake George north and 1-2" around Pottersville to Schroon Lake. I ended in Elizabethtown at the courthouse where John Brown's body lay in state after he was hanged. Closer you are to the mountains in Washington Cty the more you're screwed. East and South facing slopes in the Dacks get enhancement......Geez, I sound like a Viagra commercial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey Andy... The only thing I wonder about with the shadowing is... I was noting on the SNE side that there is a ridge of high ground up the middle of Rensselaer County (around 1200-1500 Feet, etc, I think). I wonder if they get shadowed as bad as the obvious route 22 corridor. I have wondered about that in the past when driving over that ridge from like Averill Park to Berlin on the other side. Quick thoughts and replies to above posts: 1) snowmap based on in house mesomodel, 12z NAM and WRF 4Km...GFS 12z actually has the Shadow until Saturday PM then shifts snow band NE. (Not buying GFS just yet) 2) As Tornado Girl noted other small scale factors will be huge especially where they come together in time and place. It may have some WINDEX type elements to it. 3) The shadow pattern over extreme ENY is because the winds are SE for a good chunk of the storm (or forecast to be) SE winds are great for shadowing much better than Easterlies. On the flip-side SE flow maximizes orographic lift across the Catskills and 'Dacks but also results in some shadowing across the Mohawk Valley especially along the River... 4) I am also concerned that TG agrees with me in "overall". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is from KAlb. HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES IN 12 HOURS...OR 9 INCHES OR MORE IN 24 HOURS Andy, are you buying that for around here givin the wind direction you are talking about?? I may and probably am reading your post wrong,about the wind factor too, that is why I am asking. After analyzing GFS and NAM in detail and talking with Steve we'll probaly be upping totals a 2-4 inches across the board. The 4-8 bands will probably change to 5-10 or 6-10; the shadow band probably going 3-6 maybe 4-7; the 8-12 bands 10-15. Something like that. So yes it is possible. the euro has been conssitently paltry throguhout this leadup. Agree but even so with high snow to liquid ratios (across NYS anyway) its QPF does yield moderate snow amounts. One can also not overlook the meso factors too...instability, oro enhancement, etc. Closer you are to the mountains in Washington Cty the more you're screwed. East and South facing slopes in the Dacks get enhancement......Geez, I sound like a Viagra commercial Keep reading my posts and you'll become almost as smart as me! Hey Andy... The only thing I wonder about with the shadowing is... I was noting on the SNE side that there is a ridge of high ground up the middle of Rensselaer County (around 1200-1500 Feet, etc, I think). I wonder if they get shadowed as bad as the obvious route 22 corridor. I have wondered about that in the past when driving over that ridge from like Averill Park to Berlin on the other side. They do especially around Averill Park down towards Melrose and even Troy south along the river, esp. when the SE flow is very strong. Sometimes it will extend west to Albany. Actually the heights around Grafton are close to 2K( a bit less) and Petersburg Notch is @ 2087. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Closer you are to the mountains in Washington Cty the more you're screwed. East and South facing slopes in the Dacks get enhancement......Geez, I sound like a Viagra commercial There are mountains in Wasington county?? Mountains of what? Just kidding J/K lol Problem is with sounding like a Viagra commercial is the screwing taking place the locations getting it and how long it will last!! just like this storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Right I meant that N/S area of heights that cut through Grafton. Then you drop again as you head east into the route 22 corridor. I don't doubt they will get shadowed along route 22. So to get into extreme meso factors, I could see some shadowing just east of the Hudson, then less shadow, then shadowing again along route 22. But I'm sure your maps can't be so precise. After analyzing GFS and NAM in detail and talking with Steve we'll probaly be upping totals a 2-4 inches across the board. The 4-8 bands will probably change to 5-10 or 6-10; the shadow band probably going 3-6 maybe 4-7; the 8-12 bands 10-15. Something like that. So yes it is possible. Agree but even so with high snow to liquid ratios (across NYS anyway) its QPF does yield moderate snow amounts. One can also not overlook the meso factors too...instability, oro enhancement, etc. Keep reading my posts and you'll become almost as smart as me! They do especially around Averill Park down towards Melrose and even Troy south along the river, esp. when the SE flow is very strong. Sometimes it will extend west to Albany. Actually the heights around Grafton are close to 2K( a bit less) and Petersburg Notch is @ 2087. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Taconic Range would be in easternmost Washington County up against the VT border, extending to a point somewhat north of Mount Equinox in VT. Then it comes to an end and the that northernmost part of Wash. Cty is at the base of the Champlain Valley There are mountains in Wasington county?? Mountains of what? Just kidding J/K lol Problem is with sounding like a Viagra commercial is the screwing taking place the locations getting it and how long it will last!! just like this storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There are some quirky localized shadow effects in ENY that no forecast map can really do full justice to. A few examples... Bearsville (just west of Woodstock) gets a wicked Catskills shadow on NE winds and almost always less snow than other areas down there during Noreasters. Also noted a very obvious shadow just north of Northway Exit 30 along route 9 the other day ...totally shadowed by the huge Giant/Rocky Ridge highlands. There are mountains in Wasington county?? Mountains of what? Just kidding J/K lol Problem is with sounding like a Viagra commercial is the screwing taking place the locations getting it and how long it will last!! just like this storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z NAM has joined the other globals in shfting the inv trough a bit more WNW-SSE and as a result is very similar to the RGEM/Euro of heavier qpf output over and near the ottawa valley and througouht eastern ontario. given that this zone seems to shift slightly counterclockwise with every model run, this is going to be a nowacast event to some degree to see where it exactly setsup....but we are getting close now, so confidence is increasing that the ottawa area will see a long duration snowfall of moderate accumulation...... an enhaced area of convergence may also result in some heavier bursts of snow for some surprise accumlations, which should have good ratios. right now, that is favored along a line from pembroke to KMSS. we will have to watch for that to continue to shift, and more importantly where it setsup tomorrow. the trough is edging close to the montreal area, but as of right now, lighter amounts are expected.....stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z NAM goes a little overboard i think with the piece of vorticity and makes this an NNY/eastern ontario special that carries on all weekend. accumulations of >6 inches result throughout that region with 3-6 in the montreal area. due to its inconsistencies, i will toss that extra piece later saturday into sunday, and keep an eye on it......but at least the first 48 hours with the inv trof are in line now with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Eventually the old trough reaches a northernmost point where it sits and rots away... I was hoping it would be here, but as per climo it is looking to be north of ALB somewhere.... 18z NAM goes a little overboard i think with the piece of vorticity and makes this an NNY/eastern ontario special that carries on all weekend. accumulations of >6 inches result throughout that region with 2-5 in the montreal area. due to its inconsistencies, i will toss that extra piece later saturday into sunday, and keep an eye on it......but at least the first 48 hours with the inv trof are in line now with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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