lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol meh..Goodnite fella! Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 yeah the GFS is terribly slow its awful the RGEM defintely not as exciting as the NAM in the ottawa area......neither is the GFS it appears. the SREFs are in line with other modeling with the pivot point of the troff over NNY/eastern ontario.....so good agreement now.... but they too not as exciting as the NAM. the NAM is of course supposedly good at picking up these mesoscale type situations, so it cannot be entirely discounted now that is posiitiong is in agreement....but its almost certainly overdoing the precip as its an outlier. i think a reasonable call at this time for eastern ontario and the border region is a general 3-6 inches as thought earlier.....7-15cm i'll go with 2-4 inches / 5-10cm in SW quebec, montreal area included, which could get fringed. this is a multi day total so its really not a big deal unless some sort of band occurs. as things get setup tomorrow on radar, enhancement and good ratios could certainly up the ante. but its such an unusual setup for the region, hard to get too bullish at this time until we see things develop. we will also have to watch for the developmnet of the offshore low over the weekend, that could result in this event being more low-end verifying if the inv troff weakens more rapidly. its a trend to watch. probably not worth a trip either when do you expect the snow to get started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think it's gonna be pretty hard to justfy warnings after the NAM and GFS. If I was ALB I'd convery most of the watches to advisories of 3-6 and 4-8 in some oro favored spots. 7" is a warning if it occurs in 12 hours I guess, but that probably won't be achieved anyway.... Many people bought the earleir inflated qpf numbers, but now we are getting back to a more typical clipper/inverted trough reality. Maybe a few areas of the Dacks can get into a low end warning if the inverted trough parks there for longer. Are you saying storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If u call 4-8" storm cancel....... Some are still going higher, but that was just my opinion. Are you saying storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Cant fall asleep. Snowing hard with huge dendrites just pooring outta the sky. Gotta have about 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 If u call 4-8" storm cancel....... Some are still going higher, but that was just my opinion. [/quot No I was asking because every single forecast is totally different as far as accumulation amounts. Two of my neighbor's just came over tonight and asked why I did not have my plow on, so I asked them if they heard of a storm coming in and I swear the one said " I just left the house from watching the forecast and it could be up to 2 feet! " I actually started to laugh and said if it snows enough I will plow, but I know there is no way on earth I will be pushing 24 inches of snow, and I am so sure of it that I will plow his driveway for free for the rest of this winter!! We now have a bet! The bet is that we get 18 inches or more he wins, if anything less he snowblows my driveway for the remainder of winter . I cannot believe he took the bet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, but wouldn't most people expect to be plowed if 6 or 8 inches falls? BTW ..GGEM is a big coast hugging Noreaster next week now. No I was asking because every single forecast is totally different as far as accumulation amounts. Two of my neighbor's just came over tonight and asked why I did not have my plow on, so I asked them if they heard of a storm coming in and I swear the one said " I just left the house from watching the forecast and it could be up to 2 feet! " I actually started to laugh and said if it snows enough I will plow, but I know there is no way on earth I will be pushing 24 inches of snow, and I am so sure of it that I will plow his driveway for free for the rest of this winter!! We now have a bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, but wouldn't most people expect to be plowed if 6 or 8 inches falls? BTW ..GGEM is a big coast hugging Noreaster next week now. [/quot I will be plowing, It takes me an honest 45 seconds to put my blade on. It makes no sense to run all over with it on, it is Toture on the front suspension and I am trying to get a guys plow truck repaired now. This truck is going to put my kid through college!! The 6.5 GM diesel ( pre DuraMax) is junk but the repairs are job security for me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I used to plow this place with an F250 pickup, but unfortunately the truck was shot...sold the plow. Now I use the Kubota. Yeah, but wouldn't most people expect to be plowed if 6 or 8 inches falls? BTW ..GGEM is a big coast hugging Noreaster next week now. [/quot I will be plowing, It takes me an honest 45 seconds to put my blade on. It makes no sense to run all over with it on, it is Toture on the front suspension and I am trying to get a guys plow truck repaired now. This truck is going to put my kid through college!! The 6.5 GM diesel ( pre DuraMax) is junk but the repairs are job security for me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I used to plow this place with an F250 pickup, but unfortunately the truck was shot...sold the plow. Now I use the Kubota. Well if you ever get stuck on a repair give me a shout, I may be able to point you in the direction to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Next Wed Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS: MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. * HAZARDS: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this is moving a lot faster on radar than the models predicted the 06z models have trended faster as well. Looks like most places will see less in the way of synoptic snow....I hope I see more LES on the backside for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This one is for you Ottawa blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Picked up about 5 inches so far, snowing moderately, 19 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Hmm... NWS has upped the Southern Adirondacks (including Warren County) totals. Here's the latest HWO: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTSATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTY...SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY.* HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.* ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 16 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.* TIMING: SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY.* IMPACTS: POOR VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah, but wouldn't most people expect to be plowed if 6 or 8 inches falls? BTW ..GGEM is a big coast hugging Noreaster next week now. I will be plowing, It takes me an honest 45 seconds to put my blade on. It makes no sense to run all over with it on, it is Toture on the front suspension and I am trying to get a guys plow truck repaired now. This truck is going to put my kid through college!! The 6.5 GM diesel ( pre DuraMax) is junk but the repairs are job security for me!! Hmm... NWS has upped the Southern Adirondacks (including Warren County) totals. Here's the latest HWO: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTSATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTY...SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTY AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY.* HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.* ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 16 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.* TIMING: SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY ON SATURDAY.* IMPACTS: POOR VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Here goes: Could be an additional few after 8pm Sat thru Sunday 8am from Warren Coutny SE to Northern Berkshires. FEFD17 it will be close but you may have to plow your neighbor's driveway the rest of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here goes: Could be an additional few after 8pm Sat thru Sunday 8am from Warren Coutny SE to Northern Berkshires. FEFD17 it will be close but you may have to plow your neighbor's driveway the rest of this winter I'd love that. This seems easily the most bullish forcast I have seen, hoping you're right. What is the * for in the Norwich area? Radar isn't real impressive here but it is snowing decently. Small flakes, probably 1" sofar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Snow finally starting to come down good , flake size has increased big time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here goes: Looks like Pac-Man is gonna have Albany for lunch................My lawn is slowly disappearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 8-15 for lake george area, pretty bold call g/l. Im thinking more 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 8-15 for lake george area, pretty bold call g/l. Im thinking more 4-8 inches. After this mornings wave there will be two more distinct embedded shorts moving through this afternoon/evening and another after 06z tonight across the S'rn 'Dacks. Excellent snow growth and uvm charts for Gloversville, Speculator, Saratoga and Glens Falls over the next 24 hours. I feel quite comfortable with the 8 if not 10 for GFL, 'toga and S'rn Dacks...the 14" probably higher spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 After this mornings wave there will be two more distinct embedded shorts moving through this afternoon/evening and another after 06z tonight across the S'rn 'Dacks. Excellent snow growth and uvm charts for Gloversville, Speculator, Saratoga and Glens Falls over the next 24 hours. I feel quite comfortable with the 8 if not 10 for GFL, 'toga and S'rn Dacks...the 14" probably higher spots. I can already see the enhancement process just in the 3 miles between exit 18 and my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here goes: Could be an additional few after 8pm Sat thru Sunday 8am from Warren Coutny SE to Northern Berkshires. FEFD17 it will be close but you may have to plow your neighbor's driveway the rest of this winter Yes this is a bold call for Chenango County. 3" of good snow so far on the hill. Most are calling for anywheres from 1-3 to 3-5. Good luck Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This one is for you Ottawa blizzard That would be gold. Snowing steadily here at the moment. Is finally looking like winter in the world's snowiest national captal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Picked up about 5 inches so far, snowing moderately, 19 degrees that not a dusting! ...congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Snow starting to come down even better now, flakes are nice and fluffy..Just by eye looks like im approaching an inch,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pushing 6 inches here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 not overly impressed with overnight modeling for up here... accumulations will verify over the long period, but on the lower end expcted. more emphasis i think will be going towards that low of the cape, thats the trends.....at least i wont have to drive, im looking forward to a relaxing weekend anyways. having said that some nice bands approaching ottawa now and lets see if they hold together. on radar, the area of precip is narrowing and focusing on a central point.... thats when it could get interesting for a few hours, but that could be in ottawa or just outside SW of the city, or it could be nothing exciting at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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