When will we see the Next Big Snowstorm for the East Coast ?

[negative-nao]

I keep hearing that the Cold Pattern will re-establish itself after han 7th.

[CAPE]

climo + la nina = February

[mdsnowlover]

gfs says in 10-15 days and dt kinda suggested the same thing. Kinda far out. Till then enjoy the nothing we got in below philly.

[Ellinwood]

January week 2-3. Book it.

[am19psu]

This is not the thread to post your snow totals or complain about your lack of snow. Please keep it on topic.

FWIW, I agree with Ellinwood, the next good chance looks to be somewhere around Jan 15, given the expected progression of the North Atlantic block.

[LVblizzard]

I agree that there's a decent chance a week or two after the warmup ends. But really I'm not expecting much this winter. That blizzard was a perfect thread the needle situation in a winter where the ENSO state isn't favorable for any kind of crippling storm.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

That blizzard was a perfect thread the needle situation in a winter where the ENSO state isn't favorable for any kind of crippling storm.

ENSO state alone clearly has no bearing on how many or where "Crippling" storms take place.

[Jersey Andrew]

WXOUTLOOKS just updated his blog and now has New York City getting 50-60 inches of snow this winter after last week only predicting 10-20 inches for the entire season. Apparently believes that February now will likely be rather cold and snowy due to a rapidly weakening La Nina. Quite a sharp reversal in thinking here and was wondering whether the mets could chime in with their thoughts.

Jersey Andrew

[A-L-E-X]

I agree that there's a decent chance a week or two after the warmup ends. But really I'm not expecting much this winter. That blizzard was a perfect thread the needle situation in a winter where the ENSO state isn't favorable for any kind of crippling storm.

You should see Don's list of analogs-- there are actually two winters in a mod-strong la nina when this happened and both had another one later on in the winter. One of them is an analog I have been using (1916-17).

I have no complaints about la ninas-- we have had some of our best winters in both la ninas and el ninos and some of our worst winters in both also. NAO is much more of a factor on the east coast than ENSO is.

[A-L-E-X]

ENSO state alone clearly has no bearing on how many or where "Crippling" storms take place.

Getting tired of people making "forecasts" (and I say that in quotes) based on ENSO alone.

[Ian]

ill go with mid-to-late jan

[LongRanger]

my "first DC snow" contest entry was Jan 20, so I'll stick with that

[Amped]

I keep hearing that the Cold Pattern will re-establish itself after han 7th.

Preetty soon after the 7th, because Maine and NH are on the east coast..

As fo the rest of us, we may net know until 48hrs in advance. Remember yesterdays storm?

[ptb127]

I agree that there's a decent chance a week or two after the warmup ends. But really I'm not expecting much this winter. That blizzard was a perfect thread the needle situation in a winter where the ENSO state isn't favorable for any kind of crippling storm.

The only good thing about our location is we don't need to thread the needle to get a big storm back here like they need to do on the coast.

[Feb]

The only good thing about our location is we don't need to thread the needle to get a big storm back here like they need to do on the coast.

Jersey Shore is becoming the snow capital of the Untied States. 3 huge storms last year and one big one this year already. They seem to be threading the needle just fine.

[Ellinwood]

Jersey Shore is becoming the snow capital of the Untied States. 3 huge storms last year and one big one this year already. They seem to be threading the needle just fine.

Move to the Great Lakes... all the snow you'll ever need, and you don't have to live in Jersey!

[ChescoWx]

I really think the next big one will be a return to the days of old....rain at the coast...snow to rain in big cities and then all snow well north and west up in your neck of the woods. Seems like it is well past due IMHO.

www.chescowx.com

The only good thing about our location is we don't need to thread the needle to get a big storm back here like they need to do on the coast.

[mattie g]

Jersey Shore is becoming the snow capital of the Untied States. 3 huge storms last year and one big one this year already. They seem to be threading the needle just fine.

Megablock rules.

In this blocky pattern in the last two winters, there really hasn't been an event where we've seen the changeover mess that we're all used to, even in the coldest of months. Amazing. And the fact that there have been four (five?) KU storms in the last 12 months (one so far in a Nina) makes it all the more impressive.

[Feb]

Eric Horst, from Millersville University has a interesting discussion today. While he says snow lovers shouldn't give up on the rest of the winter, this past storm was most likely the best chance the east coast will have the rest of the winter. He expects a more mild period coming up with storms cutting toward the lakes. While he says blocking may return, don't expect anything like yesterday to happen anymore this winter.

[BlizzardNole]

Eric Horst, from Millersville University has a interesting discussion today. While he says snow lovers shouldn't give up on the rest of the winter, this past storm was most likely the best chance the east coast will have the rest of the winter. He expects a more mild period coming up with storms cutting toward the lakes. While he says blocking may return, don't expect anything like yesterday to happen anymore this winter.

That is why we are so down about this in the DC/Balt area, because we believe this might have been our only chance this winter and we got shut out.

[SNO]

That is why we are so down about this in the DC/Balt area, because we believe this might have been our only chance this winter and we got shut out.

No worries...I believe those in the DCA will have more opportunities each of the next 3 months.

[Feb]

That is why we are so down about this in the DC/Balt area, because we believe this might have been our only chance this winter and we got shut out.

I only got 2 inches out of it so i feel your pain. Let me stress, he didn't say winter is over like JB, he just said that was probably the best opportunity for a storm like that on the east coast. Nina has to win sometime.

[Feb]

No worries...I believe those in the DCA will have more opportunities each of the next 3 months.

Agreed. At least we could say the best is yet to come. I doubt people who got 2 feet yesterday will get that chance again this winter.

[A-L-E-X]

Megablock rules.

In this blocky pattern in the last two winters, there really hasn't been an event where we've seen the changeover mess that we're all used to, even in the coldest of months. Amazing. And the fact that there have been four (five?) KU storms in the last 12 months (one so far in a Nina) makes it all the more impressive.

The 70s and 80s and 90s saw too many of the changeover type events, we're merely balancing things out. That was a time period when the nao was mostly positive, and now we're in a predominantly neg nao state so we are seeing the more classic time-honored noreaster tracks. It's not that unusual, just a function of a cyclical pattern switch.

[mattie g]

The 70s and 80s and 90s saw too many of the changeover type events, we're merely balancing things out. That was a time period when the nao was mostly positive, and now we're in a predominantly neg nao state so we are seeing the more classic time-honored noreaster tracks. It's not that unusual, just a function of a cyclical pattern switch.

Agreed, Alex. It seems to be a different cyclical pattern than the one most of us have grown up with, so it appears anomalous to us.

[haudidoody]

The 70s and 80s and 90s saw too many of the changeover type events, we're merely balancing things out. That was a time period when the nao was mostly positive, and now we're in a predominantly neg nao state so we are seeing the more classic time-honored noreaster tracks. It's not that unusual, just a function of a cyclical pattern switch.

This is something I was commenting on just yesterday. Growing up in NW NJ in the 80s and 90s we always got destroyed while NYC would change over or end up with nothing or slush. That doesn't seem to happen at all anymore but went on for a good twenty years. It just seems NYC is experiencing a period that won't be repeated again in my lifetime, and I expect to live until 2060 at least! I guess they should enjoy it while it lasts.

[negative-nao]

Maybe on the 7th or 8th

[Redmorninglight]

Maybe on the 7th or 8th

I agree with you based on the projected state of the NAO. It looks to be dropping over the next few days, but should rise around the Jan 7-9th time frame. I believe that many prolific snow-producing coastal storms occur when the NAO is negative, but rising.

[Cold Rain]

January 14, give or take a day, guaranteed.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

January 14, give or take a day, guaranteed.

I support this statement. Models all seem to point to this timeframe for the ingredients needed to support a MECS or HECS