13th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

[RodneyS]

It's time for the 13th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest!   

Those who participated last year will recollect an exciting contest featuring five lead changes, with the final one coming on March 14, 2026, when BWI's snow total for March 12th was revised from a trace to 1.0 inches, sending @Cobaltto victory over @Roger Smith.  Little did we know at that time that Roger had passed away on February 24th, but his last contest was his best one as he finished second by a scant 0.7 inch greater departure than Cobalt's departure. 

This snow season will feature a potentially historically strong El Nino, which could mean in the Mid-Atlantic anything from virtually no snow (1997-98 winter) to a blockbuster storm (1982-83 and 2015-16 winters).  Which should make for a wide range of forecasts, most any of which could plausibly happen. 

In any case, the focus of our contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2026-27 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International (RIC) Airports.  In the event a tiebreaker is required (that has happened twice in 12 years), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting at each of five airports total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch.  Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by late March to mid-April.

The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four major airports. For example, if you forecast zeroes at each airport except for Richmond:

BWI: 0.0"

DCA: 0.0"

IAD: 0.0"

RIC: 10.0"

And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be:

BWI: 2.5"

DCA: 2.5"

IAD: 2.5"

RIC: 2.5"

Your absolute value departures would be:

BWI: 2.5

DCA: 2.5

IAD: 2.5

RIC: 7.5

Thus, your total departure would be 15.0.

Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Tuesday, December 1, at 11:59 PM EST. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline.  However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, be sure to include that in your forecast total.

I think the best approach for most folks is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone

2015-16:  @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone

2016-17:  @StormpcStormpchadowzone

2017-18:  @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc

2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide

2020-21: @NorthArlington101

2021-22:  @IUsedToHateCold

2022-23: @LittleVillageWx

2023-24: @Kmlwx

2024-25: @HighStakes(tiebreaker win against @mattie g)

2025-26: @Cobalt@Stor

Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region.  Good luck everyone!

[AnEndlessMaze]

BWI: 0.5”

DCA: 0.2”

IAD: 0.6”

RIC: T

Tiebreaker SBY: T

[GATECH]

BWI: 18”

DCA: 15”

IAD: 21”

RIC: 3”

Tiebreaker SBY: 2”

[RodneyS]

1 hour ago, AnEndlessMaze said:

BWI: 0.5”

DCA: 0.2”

IAD: 0.6”

RIC: T

Tiebreaker SBY: T

I take it that you don't see a blockbuster this season? 

[AnEndlessMaze]

3 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

I take it that you don't see a blockbuster this season? 

‘15-‘16 but without the ‘16 

[Cobalt]

BWI: 1.7"

DCA: 0.8"

IAD: 4.4"

RIC: 0.2"

SBY: T

 

Will be happy to be wrong.. or completely adjust this in a few weeks. 

[NorthArlington101]

Leaning negative but I'll give myself plenty of time to change my mind. Assuming we get a more classic N/W storm in there and sneak in a relatively minor suppression mix, but otherwise we're mostly rain for the big storms.

BWI: 4.3”

DCA: 1.5”

IAD: 7.1”

RIC: 3.2”

SBY: 1.4"

[JenkinsJinkies]

BWI: 0.3”

DCA: 0.3”

IAD: 0.7”

RIC: 0.1”

SBY: 0.2”

Precip won’t be the issue, timing it with cold will.

[Kmlwx]

BWI: 9.1
DCA: 4.5
IAD: 15.2
RIC: 1.7

Tiebreaker (SBY): 0.2

[Elim72]

BWI 23"

DCA 18"

IAD 20.5"

RIC 6.5"

SBY 3"

[dailylurker]

Crofton Maryland- 8.5"

Barns Corner, NY (my location this winter)- 219"

[RickinBaltimore]

BWI: 4.0"
DCA: 3.1"
IAD: 3.8"
RIC: 2.4"

SBY: 1.2"

[Terpeast]

Most people are going low for this year, and I think they will be right. But for shits and giggles, I’ll throw this out there:

BWI: 29”
DCA: 24”
IAD: 38”
RIC: 11”

SBY: 13”