Remnants of Hurricane Isaias

[mitchnick]

Wow. EPS AIFS

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wow. EPS AIFS

Funny the dead zone on the euro around Harrisonburg is the max zone on this

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wow. EPS AIFS

That would be very beneficial for these parts.   I hope it's right.

[Eskimo Joe]

Sign me up for a guaranteed regionwide 1.5" - 2.5" of rain.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM

[Jebman]

Silver lining was the storm moved so fast, many places probably ended up with half the forecasted rain.

[aldie 22]

22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z NBM

That would be sweet to get 2" out here...just had a passing shower 

[Weather Will]

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
350 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Given the continued signal of 2 to 3 inches of rainfall, locally
higher along/east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, have issued Flood
Watches for Sunday. These are in effect from the Blue Ridge
eastward to just west of the D.C. metro area. Some further
eastward expansions may be needed. Gale Warnings have been
hoisted over the southern waters for Sunday morning given the
potential for 35 knot southeasterly gusts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias to bring rain,
  breezy to windy conditions, and the threat of tornadoes
  Sunday.

- 2) Above normal temperatures Tuesday will fall the second
  half of the week as moisture starved fronts move through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias to
bring rain, breezy to windy conditions, and the threat of
tornadoes Sunday.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues to lift northward across
Georgia and Alabama. This system has weakened considerably after
last evening`s landfall while losing all tropical
characteristics. The associated mid-level circulation
strengthens and becomes a large cutoff low later tonight. To the
east, surface high pressure over the northeastern U.S. today
moves offshore off southern New England tonight.

In advance of this broad area of low pressure, a thick high
cirrus shield continues to expand north and east into the Great
Lakes and New England. While this system still looms well to the
southwest of the area, some light scattered showers continue to
lift across I-64 toward the I-66 corridor. However, any amounts
are very light with some radar returns not even reaching the
ground. The thick cloud cover will hold temperatures mainly in
the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon.

Looking ahead, the interaction of Isaias` remnants to the west
and surface high to the east will create a large area of
convergence / broad frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic. There is
good model agreement that rain steadily moves from south to
north this evening into tonight as forcing for ascent increases
with some mid-level height falls in response to the approaching
cutoff low. It will take a bit of time for the surface to truly
saturate, so any rainfall this afternoon to evening across
central Virginia will struggle to amount to much. Eventually,
tropical moisture with PWATs at or above 2" surges in after
midnight.

It is worth mentioning again that conditions are favorable for a
widespread soaking rain, and 12Z and 00Z models have responded
with more QPF across the region. Forcing for ascent increases
tonight, and especially Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as
mid-level heights fall with the approach of the cutoff low.
Enhanced low-level convergence and moisture transport will peak
Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Strengthening
easterly flow into the Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced
rain amounts due to orographic effects. As a result, forecast
rain amounts have increased to 2.0-3.0", with locally higher
amounts of 3-5" possible. With this uptick, Flood Watches were
issued across the Blue Ridge eastward into the central Virginia
Piedmont region. This is in effect on Sunday 5 AM until Monday 2
AM. Some eastward expansion may be necessary if models trends
hold on or show further upticks.

Another noticeable trend in recent guidance is the higher
probabilities for severe weather Sunday afternoon. The main
synoptically forced rain moves north of the area early Sunday
afternoon. Rapid height falls and increasing low-level winds
provide a few hour window where some breaks in the clouds area
possible, leading to pockets of instability. A surface wave of
low pressure moves right through the area Sunday afternoon.
Forecast soundings indicate large, cyclonic hodographs, with
ample shear in place to support organized severe convection.
Clusters of thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of the
surface low pressure, with tornadoes and damaging wind gusts as
the main threats (looks mostly to be east of the Blue Ridge).
The NAM12, RRFS, and 12Z HRRR all show this scenario. The big
question still remains how much instability actually develops.
SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for Sunday, with a recent northward
expansion to just south of I-66 in Virginia.

The strong mid-level circulation is going to bring windy conditions
to the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge, starting late tonight into Sunday
morning. Wind Advisories were issued for downsloping easterly
winds in the Alleghenies (western Garrett, western Grant, and
western Pendleton Counties), and the Blue Ridge. The current
forecast for peak wind gusts is 40-50 mph in the
Alleghenies/Blue Ridge and 20-30 mph elsewhere.

The remnants of Isaias push offshore Monday, bringing an end to any
lingering showers. While conditions return humid and warm Monday,
there likely will not be much in the way of shower activity due
to subsidence behind the departing trough.

[yoda]

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
300 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as the remnants of Isaias
track across the region starting early Sunday morning. Storms should
be highly efficient rainfall producers given the tropical nature of
the air mass. In particular, the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge
have the potential to see the most rainfall given the continued
easterly upslope winds. A further eastward expansion of these watches
may be needed.

VAZ036>040-050-051-501-502-507-508-110300-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0018.261011T0900Z-261012T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Airlie, Greenfield, Madison Run, Nasons,
Orange, Fordsville, Washington, Rapidan, Charlottesville, Twymans
Mill, Stevensburg, Cardova, Montebello, Bethel, Madison Mills,
Hackleys Crossroads, Overton, Culpeper, Five Forks, Rock Mills,
Unionville, Catalpa, Warrenton, Chester Gap, Reva, Everona, Burr
Hill, Flint Hill, Lahore, Turnbull, Winston, Castleton, Skyland, and
Shady Grove
300 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest Virginia,
  including the following areas, in central Virginia, Albemarle,
  Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene, Nelson and Orange. In northern
  Virginia, Culpeper, Northern Fauquier and Southern Fauquier. In
  northwest Virginia, Madison, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and
  Rappahannock.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The remnants of Isaias will bring a tropical air mass much into
    the Mid-Atlantic region late tonight into Sunday. Storms should
    be highly efficient in this environment and capable of producing
    several inches of rain throughout the duration of the event.
    Storm total rainfall is expected to be around 2 to 3 inches, with
    pockets of 3 to 5 inches along the eastern slopes of the Blue
    Ridge.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

[TSSN+]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yikes! Under the yellow (probably @TSSN+too!)  @psuhoffman into the tan!!! Hope it's typical Euro overdone.

I wish. Probably end up like 12k Nam and I’ll get .5” 

[dailylurker]

My dad and I went out and did some crabbing this morning. The high clouds from the storm to the SW made for a stunning sunrise as we we're coming out of Annopoils towards our crabbing grounds. 

[Benjamn3]

8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

My dad and I went out and did some crabbing this morning. The high clouds from the storm to the SW made for a stunning sunrise as we we're coming out of Annopoils towards our crabbing grounds. 

 Lucky man, I miss watching a sunrise with my pops while in the deer woods. 

[nw baltimore wx]

@dailylurker

Grest pic!

I’ve crabbed just before storms and they were jumping in the boat. How was today?

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

@dailylurker

Grest pic!

I’ve crabbed just before storms and they were jumping in the boat. How was today?

Fantastic! It's been an awesome season this year. It always seems like big ice winters bring great crabbing. 

My dad is getting up there in age. It's getting harder for him but we still get out there. Been crabbing with him for 47 years (entire life). I like crabbing, snow, and severe weather lol

[yoda]

Atmosphere must slowly be saturating as it has been sprinkling here... car has rain drops on it 

[Bob Chill]

22 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

 Lucky man, I miss watching a sunrise with my pops while in the deer woods. 

I've spent the last week building a permanent blind in a creek valley on our property. Game cams picking up plenty of traffic including some 8+ pointers. I dont do archery yet so waiting for muzzleoader season to open on the 31st. Feeling confident. There are literally too many deer in the woods in many areas of VA. DWR is encouraging doe harvests and they're my fave to eat but I won't be picky for the 1st of the season. 

On topic... lol. They bumped our forecast to 2-3"+ of rain and holy crap we need it. Lakes and rivers have been in a constant struggle since the spring. Would love to see things fill back up. 

[Benjamn3]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've spent the last week building a permanent blind in a creek valley on our property. Game cams picking up plenty of traffic including some 8+ pointers. I dont do archery yet so waiting for muzzleoader season to open on the 31st. Feeling confident. There are literally too many deer in the woods in many areas of VA. DWR is encouraging doe harvests and they're my fave to eat but I won't be picky for the 1st of the season. 

On topic... lol. They bumped our forecast to 2-3"+ of rain and holy crap we need it. Lakes and rivers have been in a constant struggle since the spring. Would love to see things fill back up. 

We are overrun with does, but this summer on our farm my wife and I have seen a gorgeous 8 point and a friend down the road has seen a bigger one. So I think I’m going to hold out through November untill I start filling the freezer. Ive never shot a decent buck. 
 

 

Yes on topic, NWS has bumped us in the botetourt area up to 2-4 inches. Not to state the obvious, but it is well received. 

[IronTy]

9 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

We are overrun with does, but this summer on our farm my wife and I have seen a gorgeous 8 point and a friend down the road has seen a bigger one. So I think I’m going to hold out through November untill I start filling the freezer. Ive never shot a decent buck. 
 

 

Yes on topic, NWS has bumped us in the botetourt area up to 2-4 inches. Not to state the obvious, but it is well received. 

Man we have so many deer around here it's insane.  Even with dense forest all over they've been mowing down my mountain laurel all year so you know they're desperate.  My house is too close to others to shoot them with a rifle so I was thinking about getting a crossbow at some point.  I could literally just walk out on my back deck on any given evening and net dinner for the next couple months whenever I want.  I wish there was an easier way to reduce population numbers, they're destroying the local flora.  

Went on a 3mi hike and it was really gross out in the woods with a ton of mosquitoes.  

 

 

 

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, LongRanger said:

What are "swooping hodographs," other than a great name for a rock band according to Dave Barry?

That did it. That's what i'm gonna call my new Gen Alpha/Gen Z Band. Swooping Hodographs.

[mitchnick]

18z Gfs. 18z AI Gfs on the bottom.