October 2026

[psv88]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

My Muttontown station is probably 15 feet or so from the pool on the pool patio edge.  I don’t know what the temp of the pool is but I know it’s not being heated.

I have a tarp on mine. I moved it further away we’ll see what happens 

[MarcmmKU]

Early Nov looks quite torch. the overnight lows are what the daytime highs should be in that timeframe... mid to upper 50s.

[winterwx21]

Got down to 33 here this morning. That was a close call, but the plants in the vegetable garden look ok. 

[SACRUS]

From 29 - 69 today 40 degree jump

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

From 29 - 69 today 40 degree jump

Only 38 here today, 28-66. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s. A few locations will likely reach or exceed 70°. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the middle and upper 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was +12.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.057 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.3° (1.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Cfa]

70/33 today. Is this what Colorado feels like?

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning's low at Mount Pocono was 27°.

October 17 is the average date for first 20s. Last year's October 10 was earlier than usual.

The only recent year that I recall JFK's reaching 32° in October was 2020 (October 31st). That day, the high-low split for MPO was 39°-22°. That was the coldest October high temperature since 2012 when the high was also 39°. However, since you mentioned a date prior to October 20, that might have been October 19, 2015. The low was 20° but the high reached 49°.

Nothing like that is likely in the near-term. Forecast uncertainty increases toward the end of the forecast period on the NBM:

That's the period that the NBM has recently shown the most warming from its forecast of 12 hours ago.

Thanks Don any record of snowfall at MPO on either of those two dates? What was the low at JFK on that earlier date October 19, 2015? Also a big el nino.

Last night my lows were very similar 28.6, 28.8 and 29.1 on my main sensors so only about 0.2 degrees lower than the night before and the high was 60 so 2 degrees higher than the previous day so almost a carbon copy. What was the low at MPO? Thanks.

 

 

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the shift of the trough to the SW CONUS has allowed our area to dry out a bit this month.
 

 

2001-02 is my main analog and it shows up strongly this week in the records. 

 

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The historic El Nino will he driving a deep trough into the West to close out October. So we get an impressive ridge amplification in the East. Models currently have upper 70s for the usual NJ warm spots on the 30th. Normal highs for the date are in the low 60s.

 

 

Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
October 30, 2026

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	61	82 in 1946	41 in 1869

Very 2001 like and I think this winter will be much more like 2001-02 than 1997-98. Most people care about the result much more than the cause.

 

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2001)
NYC: 79 (1963)
LGA: 78 (2001)
JFK: 77 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1939)
NYC: 29 (1879)
LGA: 37 (1962)
JFK: 33 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1918: The Canadian steamship Princess Sophia carrying miners from the Yukon and Alaska becomes stranded on Vanderbilt Reef. A strong northerly gale hampers rescue attempts the day before. The ship sinks on this day, killing the 268 passengers and 75 crewmen on board. 

 

1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1921: A devastating category 3 hurricane struck near Tarpon Springs, Florida. The storm caused 8 fatalities and is the latest in the calendar year a category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall in the US.

1925: An F2 tornado moved though Woburn and Stoneham, MA, killing 1 person, injuring 6 others, and unroofing or damaging 75 buildings. This is the strongest tornado on record for so late in the year in New England. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1933: Boston, Massachusetts recorded the highest average one minute wind velocity from the northwest at 63 mph for October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1965: Once again, Fort Lauderdale is deluged with heavy rain for the second time in two weeks. 13.81 inches of rain falls in a 48 hour period. Many places were flooded for the second time. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1972: A storm from the Gulf of Mexico moved across North Florida, before striking Charleston and moving up the Appalachians. Very heavy rains of four to eight inches drenched areas around Norfolk, with the 6.29" on the 24th at Norfolk setting a daily rainfall record. (Ref. Late Nineteen Century Hurricanes)

1975: GOES-1, which was launched on October 16th.

1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)

1982: A major coastal storm brought high winds to the Mid Atlantic, where winds gusted to 82 mph at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. Mt. Pisgah, NC picked up 11 inches of snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997: A major snowstorm pounded Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska through the 26th. 51 inches of snow fell at Coal Creek, CO. 4 feet of snow fell over a wide area. The Denver Broncos nearly missed their flight to Buffalo, NY because of a huge storm that had dumped nearly 22 inches of snow. Known for its snow, Buffalo was actually sunny and mild as the Broncos struggled to get to the airport. 19.3 inches of snow fell at Goodland, KS to establish a new 24 hour snowfall record. A strong north wind whipped the snow into 15 to 20 foot drifts. Most roads were impassable for several days after the snow ended. There were heavy losses to cattle. Behind the storm, some locations reported record low temperatures for the date including: Scottsbluff, NE: 6°, Denver, CO: 8° (record low maximum of 21° later tied on 10/30/1991), Sheridan, WY: 8°, Rapid City, SD: 9°, Dillon, MT: 11°, Livingston, MT: 12°, Casper, WY: 13°, Colorado Springs, CO: 15°, Pocatello, ID: 15°, Goodland, KS: 18° and Billings, MT: 18°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: A winter storm brought heavy snowfall to Colorado Rockies. Snowfall totals of 12 to 22 inches were common over the higher terrain and 6 to 12 inches at lower levels; including Denver. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph at Denver International Airport pushed the snow drifts 3 to 4 feet deep. Thousands were left without power as the weight of the heavy snow snapped tree limbs on to power lines. Snowfall totals included: Aspen Springs: 25 inches, Conifer: 25 inches, Rollinsville: 23.5 inches, Idaho Springs: 23 inches, Blackhawk: 22.5 inches, Bailey: 21.5 inches, Bergen Park: 19 inches, Genesee: 18 inches, Jamestown: 18 inches, Boulder: 17 inches and Evergreen: 16 inches. Denver International Airport started as rain and a thunderstorm before changing to snow. This was after a daytime high of 70°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

2017: The high temperatures in Denver, Colorado was 84 degrees. By the morning hours on the 27th, the temperature fell to 13 degrees, a 71-degree change.

2001 showing up strongly in the records this week!

 

11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Next week East is remaining dry

 

Perfect. 

 

9 hours ago, MANDA said:

With not much else going on I thought this was worthy of sharing.  Thought this was a great video clip.

https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/2114179629863084042/video/1

Enjoy the weather cause you ain't gonna notice much change for a while.  Nice but getting boring.

Per post above from @bluewave don't like the look of this.  Keep an eye on it over the coming weeks.  I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern locked in for a while.  Trof west / ridge east.  

 

I'm telling you with all the people on the rainy 1997-98 train I think this winter will be MUCH more like 2001-02. Most people don't care about the cause only the result.

 

8 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

29 here too today

 

Indian Summer incoming later in the week

I'm really looking forward to that warmup.  Warmup are meaningless when it's raining.

 

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

70/33 today. Is this what Colorado feels like?

It's the absolute perfect weather, now just shift it to next summer so we can have some nice 104/64 splits with very low humidity and clear blue skies.

 

12 hours ago, weathermedic said:

25 in Toms River is the coldest reading I see on the 7am NWS Obs roundup.

They beat FOK, I wonder what MVY low was?

12 hours ago, FPizz said:

29

Basically a carbon copy of yesterday the low was 0.2 lower the high was 2 degrees higher. 

 

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don any record of snowfall at MPO on either of those two dates? What was the low at JFK on that earlier date October 19, 2015? Also a big el nino.

Last night my lows were very similar 28.6, 28.8 and 29.1 on my main sensors so only about 0.2 degrees lower than the night before and the high was 60 so 2 degrees higher than the previous day so almost a carbon copy. What was the low at MPO? Thanks.

 

 

2001-02 is my main analog and it shows up strongly this week in the records. 

 

Very 2001 like and I think this winter will be much more like 2001-02 than 1997-98. Most people care about the result much more than the cause.

 

2001 showing up strongly in the records this week!

 

Perfect. 

 

I'm telling you with all the people on the rainy 1997-98 train I think this winter will be MUCH more like 2001-02. Most people don't care about the cause only the result.

 

I'm really looking forward to that warmup.  Warmup are meaningless when it's raining.

 

It's the absolute perfect weather, now just shift it to next summer so we can have some nice 104/64 splits with very low humidity and clear blue skies.

 

They beat FOK, I wonder what MVY low was?

Basically a carbon copy of yesterday the low was 0.2 lower the high was 2 degrees higher. 

 

MPO doesn’t keep a snowfall record.

[Keith Central PA]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

MPO doesn’t keep a snowfall record.

2001-2 was dry..doubt with all that southern branch moisture it would be a match