Central PA Autumn 2026

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's a great post from the Atlantic Hurricane Season thread about the current nor'easter. Post is 19 hours old now but still.

 

Oh another thing too the center of the storm had convection firing around the center and some lightning earlier. Very interesting.

 

19 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Concerning the East Coast storm, I wanted to point out something I can not recall seeing in this region in Sep.

This is not your typical "cold" ET storm evolution. The initial surface low development was S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness  line and by 25/18z, a small 582 closed thickness pool had formed over the low center (see ECMWF 12z 06 hr and 18z 03 hr forecast attached).  This is a much higher thickness than what you would find in a typical strong ET storm development near 37N in late Se in this region off the U.S. East Coast.  A 582 thickness pool is what you commonly see on the global models over a mature hurricane, so I would be cautious here as this is an outlier case and conventional rules of thumb may not apply.  This is why I mentioned in an earlier post that one needs to think outside the box here.  

Yes, I know that this mid-level warm pool alone does not make it even close  to a ST system currently, but you have to admit this is unusually warm for initial strong baroclinic development and a high launching pad, relativity speaking.  Nothing quite like this (at least in the last 50 yr) has occurred in Sep in this particular region when a strong ET low develops during the  near peak climo of SSTs that are 2-4 C above average and the low meanders for days in the same region close to the coast.

 

I attached the SSTs analysis and the approximate position of the surface low at 25/18z.  It is over SSTs more than enough to support ST transition and is going nowhere fast the next 72 hr off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so I would not let one's guard down here.

The closest analog is the Perfect Storm ET low Oct-Nov 1991 and the hurricane that formed from it eventually, so such a scenario here is not unprecedented.  A recon was flown into that system when the transition had occured and they found a 981 pressure and 88 kt FL winds.

 

[pawatch]

60 degrees and we haven’t picked up any rain in the last 24 hours.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Apparently, we've already experienced the worst of the winds in our area  according to the discussion. The aviation forecast  doesn't seem to agree with that idea  I expected a little more in the wind department, but i'm not complaining.. Not sure if anyone caught the sunset last night ,but for my pov, it was quite beautiful. It wasn't the most vibrant, but It was very Mackereled and marbled  with textures ,soft pinks and blues. I couldn't help but to think of the great Bob Ross.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
440 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No more wind advisory threat.
* Bumped PoPs up over the western half of the CWA today.
* Lowered dewpoints (again) today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast.

2) Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week
with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast.

The nor-easter center is just off NJ and will circulate back to
the shoreline before sliding to the east and north later
tonight and Monday. It is already starting to fill and will do
so very slowly today and as it moves away. The wind and gusts
will start to decrease a bit through the daylight hours, and
will do so even more tonight. The loosening pressure gradient
will mean that the threat for nearing wind advisory criteria
over any of our counties is all but over. We did knock a couple
degs off the dewpoints for today as the NBM has been
consistently too high over the past 2-3 days. Despite this, the
bands of rain should go farther to the west than Sat - so we
bumped the PoPs to categorical for most of the CWA east of route
219. The rain may not quite reach the ground in the western
layer of zones, but some hit the ground locally despite the
lower-than-forecast dewpoints on Sat. Cool air is locked in, and
maxes will be only 55-65F - coolest NE.

QPF is looking heaviest just about where it was on Saturday -
the Lower Susq. Someone might pick up another inch, but most
likely not. Even so, the FFG is high enough to not have flooding
even be a thought.

Conditions will improve tonight and Monday morning. By noon
Monday, there should only be isolated --SHRA over the NE and the
wind will not be notable. Temps rise slightly from Sun, but will
still be cooler than normal.

  -----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Tranquil conditions expected for the first half
of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the
region.

Dry conditions will continue into Thursday as the front
anticipated to be arriving late Wed/night will be delayed for a
day or so. It will pick up some moisture from the remnants of
Polo. But, that precip probably stays to our W until Thursday. All
model guidance trends towards a warming trend in this
timeframe, with above-average temperatures prevailing area wide
for the balance of the week. Someone may hit 80F before Friday.
Details on timing and intensity of rainfall are not easy to pin
down at this range and with the upcoming pattern. So, we`ll just
make a gradual increase in PoPs Fri-Sat-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It appears that dry conditions will prevail overnight for most,
with the bulk of model guidance keeping ceilings above VFR. The
main concern for the rest of tonight will be LLWS at eastern
TAF sites as surface winds decrease to less than 10 knots while
winds at 2000 feet remain around 40 knots.

Rainfall appears to be more widespread after 15Z with the
the nor`easter closer to the NJ Coast. This will bring a higher
potential for lower ceilings and visibilities across much of
the region. Ceilings and visibility should deteriorate
throughout the day, with IFR conditions possible at nearly
every airfield by 00Z Monday. Any showers will be quite
efficient and therefore could result in visibilities dropping
below 3 statute miles (categorical IFR). There remains some
uncertainty with how quickly ceilings will lower, but the
combination of reduced visibility when showers are most numerous
and lowering ceilings after showers weaken/dissipate give
confidence in a lengthy period of restrictions Sunday afternoon
through the overnight hours.

The location of the Nor`easter will also lead to wind gusts
exceeding 20-25kts across all of central Pennsylvania on Sunday;
slightly stronger gusts are likely at KMDT and KLNS (up to 35kts
possible).

[canderson]

Heavy rain and by far strongest winds of the event this am. Wind into mid 30s. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Apparently, we've already experienced the worst of the winds in our area  according to the discussion. The aviation forecast  doesn't seem to agree with that idea  I expected a little more in the wind department, but i'm not complaining.. Not sure if anyone caught the sunset last night ,but for my pov, it was quite beautiful. It wasn't the most vibrant, but It was very Mackereled and marbled  with textures ,soft pinks and blues. I couldn't help but to think of the great Bob Ross.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
440 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No more wind advisory threat.
* Bumped PoPs up over the western half of the CWA today.
* Lowered dewpoints (again) today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast.

2) Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week
with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast.

The nor-easter center is just off NJ and will circulate back to
the shoreline before sliding to the east and north later
tonight and Monday. It is already starting to fill and will do
so very slowly today and as it moves away. The wind and gusts
will start to decrease a bit through the daylight hours, and
will do so even more tonight. The loosening pressure gradient
will mean that the threat for nearing wind advisory criteria
over any of our counties is all but over. We did knock a couple
degs off the dewpoints for today as the NBM has been
consistently too high over the past 2-3 days. Despite this, the
bands of rain should go farther to the west than Sat - so we
bumped the PoPs to categorical for most of the CWA east of route
219. The rain may not quite reach the ground in the western
layer of zones, but some hit the ground locally despite the
lower-than-forecast dewpoints on Sat. Cool air is locked in, and
maxes will be only 55-65F - coolest NE.

QPF is looking heaviest just about where it was on Saturday -
the Lower Susq. Someone might pick up another inch, but most
likely not. Even so, the FFG is high enough to not have flooding
even be a thought.

Conditions will improve tonight and Monday morning. By noon
Monday, there should only be isolated --SHRA over the NE and the
wind will not be notable. Temps rise slightly from Sun, but will
still be cooler than normal.

  -----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Tranquil conditions expected for the first half
of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the
region.

Dry conditions will continue into Thursday as the front
anticipated to be arriving late Wed/night will be delayed for a
day or so. It will pick up some moisture from the remnants of
Polo. But, that precip probably stays to our W until Thursday. All
model guidance trends towards a warming trend in this
timeframe, with above-average temperatures prevailing area wide
for the balance of the week. Someone may hit 80F before Friday.
Details on timing and intensity of rainfall are not easy to pin
down at this range and with the upcoming pattern. So, we`ll just
make a gradual increase in PoPs Fri-Sat-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It appears that dry conditions will prevail overnight for most,
with the bulk of model guidance keeping ceilings above VFR. The
main concern for the rest of tonight will be LLWS at eastern
TAF sites as surface winds decrease to less than 10 knots while
winds at 2000 feet remain around 40 knots.

Rainfall appears to be more widespread after 15Z with the
the nor`easter closer to the NJ Coast. This will bring a higher
potential for lower ceilings and visibilities across much of
the region. Ceilings and visibility should deteriorate
throughout the day, with IFR conditions possible at nearly
every airfield by 00Z Monday. Any showers will be quite
efficient and therefore could result in visibilities dropping
below 3 statute miles (categorical IFR). There remains some
uncertainty with how quickly ceilings will lower, but the
combination of reduced visibility when showers are most numerous
and lowering ceilings after showers weaken/dissipate give
confidence in a lengthy period of restrictions Sunday afternoon
through the overnight hours.

The location of the Nor`easter will also lead to wind gusts
exceeding 20-25kts across all of central Pennsylvania on Sunday;
slightly stronger gusts are likely at KMDT and KLNS (up to 35kts
possible).

Last night’s sunset was very beautiful.

[Superstorm]

Water vapor loop is amazing:




.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Solid rain falling, as the current temp of 56 is the low. Looks to be a little over a half inch in the gauge but I’ll get an official two-day tally tomorrow morning. Great dreary day to be couch-locked. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

20 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Stole this from the NYC thread but figured some might appreciate it here

 

I just took a True color SnapShot  a few minutes ago for comparison. The storm looks almost identical nearly 24 hours later.  I also took a broad snapshot in geo color to compare to Polo.

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Water vapor loop is amazing:




.

It is very impressive. I was working on my geo satellite post but you beat me to it before I could get mine up.  I ended up taking out my water vapor images. Looks really nice from some of the other channels too. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

@Jns2183The new NESDIS web user interface absolutely sucks. 

[Superstorm]

Nasty morning.

55F, breezy and moderate rain.


.

[Voyager]

Picked up another .40" today for a two day total (so far) of .93" Wind, of course, was insignificant in my backyard, with a peak gust of only 13.4 mph which occurred this morning. We had dinner last night at the Thunderhead Lodge on top of the Blue Mountain on 309 last night, and the wind was howling up there at 1,300 ft.

[Itstrainingtime]

Sunshine and temps in the 60s here in Pittsburgh. Perfect afternoon for imperfect football.

[mahantango#1]

12 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Picked up another .40" today for a two day total (so far) of .93" Wind, of course, was insignificant in my backyard, with a peak gust of only 13.4 mph which occurred this morning. We had dinner last night at the Thunderhead Lodge on top of the Blue Mountain on 309 last night, and the wind was howling up there at 1,300 ft.

.18 rain yesterday, .06 so far today. Went to reading yesterday afternoon and it was miserable driving with that heavier rain and wind down that way.

[ChescoWx]

The Nor’easter will continue to impact us through today with some showers continuing into tomorrow morning. We dry out on Tuesday and start a nice but brief warming trend. We should see temperatures rise into the upper 70's with some valley location possibly touching 80 degrees by Thursday. We then turn much chillier again by next weekend.