Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[TriPol]

It just stalls off the cape. And then, 8 pm Sunday it retrogrades West to Long Island! Just like the EURO had.

[MJO812]

Much wetter

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

It just stalls off the cape. And then, 8 pm Sunday it retrogrades West to Long Island! Just like the EURO had.

Just another dumb piece to the puzzle I don't really feel like dealing with. Lol

[TriPol]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

Just another dumb piece to the puzzle I don't really feel like dealing with. Lol

Watch 0z GFS hit Bermuda.

[wthrmn654]

Yes very MOIST! Then it starts to drift north east eventually at some hour that I'm not even going look at.  

[Rmine1]

Will the sun angle hold down accumulations? 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Will the sun angle hold down accumulations? 

That darn September sun angle!

[SI Mailman]

That darn September sun angle!

Equivalent to the 3rd week of March. We are getting there

[wthrmn654]

Mean while, Ai gfs goes east lmao

[wthrmn654]

It would seem gfs and smarter gfs don't get along

[wthrmn654]

Euro ai at 18z is fairly consistent total precip shifted a little east. 

[Prue11]

Whether this event hits us or not this is nothing we haven’t dealt with. This is a fairly common occurrence. It’s a nor’easter. People comparing this to Sandy are losing their minds 

[LCPhotowerx]

19 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Whether this event hits us or not this is nothing we haven’t dealt with. This is a fairly common occurrence. It’s a nor’easter. People comparing this to Sandy are losing their minds 

so its closer to Irene? 

[wthrmn654]

Sandy? You saying it is the first time since this storm was first talked about. lmfao 

[guinness77]

59 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Whether this event hits us or not this is nothing we haven’t dealt with. This is a fairly common occurrence. It’s a nor’easter. People comparing this to Sandy are losing their minds 

People on Twitter are absolutely losing their minds. Lot of people going there for whatever the reason (clicks?). I saw a guy with a substantial amount of followers call it Sandy 2.0 and when he got called out on it he’s like “I’m just talking about the track,” which was false. This place is fairly rational which is why I read here for a long time before I signed up. 

[wthrmn654]

26 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

People on Twitter are absolutely losing their minds. Lot of people going there for whatever the reason (clicks?). I saw a guy with a substantial amount of followers call it Sandy 2.0 and when he got called out on it he’s like “I’m just talking about the track,” which was false. This place is fairly rational which is why I read here for a long time before I signed up. 

I'm glad I'm in my happy place bubble avoiding that nonsense then.  Atleast nyers are crazy but sane. Can't say the same about the jersey people coming up with that nonsense. 

[wthrmn654]

18zeuro shifted east a little but no where near the gfs icon and euro very similar except with euro it comes on shore over east end then goes west ward and essentially rots away and then clears out at some point.  We're getting closer to an idea but still not there yet. 

[LCPhotowerx]

56 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

People on Twitter are absolutely losing their minds. Lot of people going there for whatever the reason (clicks?). I saw a guy with a substantial amount of followers call it Sandy 2.0 and when he got called out on it he’s like “I’m just talking about the track,” which was false. This place is fairly rational which is why I read here for a long time before I signed up. 

Twitter is as much as a cesspool as facebook, if not more so.

[FPizz]

35 minutes ago, LCPhotowerx said:

Twitter is as much as a cesspool as facebook, if not more so.

Why though?  You can pick who you follow on each.   Your fault for following trash.  

[GaWx]

 Joe Bastardi, who I often don’t agree with, continues to insist this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it thus should be named. He says the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving it a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm (well above 79F) due largely to GW.

 Per JB, evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, he posted the Euro having a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this projected weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. He said tides may go as high as 3-6 feet AN at NYC!

 Does anyone here recall a purely cold-core nor’easter in this region this early in the fall? Aren’t those usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm?

[NJwx85]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Joe Bastardi, who I often don’t agree with, continues to insist this will transition from baroclinic/cold core to warm core Fri night/early Sat leading to an “eye-like feature” and says it thus should be named. He says the NHC is wrong in not even putting it in its TWOs. He shows the Euro ensemble giving it a 70% chance for tropical development. He said there will be rapid feedback over SSTs that are abnormally warm (well above 79F) due largely to GW.

 Per JB, evidence of it being warm-core is that it starts to weaken as it moves NW into cooler SSTs followed by it dissipating as it makes landfall. Also, he posted the Euro having a warm center offshore on Sun AM at 700 mb! He shows 1000/500 mb thicknesses peaking at the center at >576 dm! He compares this projected weakening over cooler SSTs to Henri of ‘21 as it approached the NE. He said tides may go as high as 3-6 feet AN at NYC!

 Does anyone here recall a purely cold-core nor’easter in this region this early in the fall? Aren’t those usually not til Oct, when SSTs aren’t as warm?

He’s a tool. The reason it weakens is because it  becomes vertically stacked and occludes, because it’s cold core. Tropical systems don’t weaken when they become stacked.

[TriPol]

0z EURO out to 24... At F24, I do not see an obvious early Bermuda run. The low is still close enough to the Mid-Atlantic coastal zone that the later interaction with the block is very much alive. God if we got this in 3 months from now this forum would be going nuts.

[TriPol]

Holy crap did the GFS absolutely CAVE to the EURO! This is more west than 18z!

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

He’s a tool. The reason it weakens is because it  becomes vertically stacked and occludes, because it’s cold core. Tropical systems don’t weaken when they become stacked.

Thanks. But how do you explain a 1000/500 mb thickness max of >576 dm and 700 mb height max both at the center if it is cold core? That almost has to be warm core.

[TriPol]

Out to 72... the storm is stalled. Just completely stalled off of Long Island. About 150 miles SE. Lots of rain and wind for our areas.

[TriPol]

Valid 00Z Monday Sep. 28, 8 PM Sunday EDT, the GFS has the center down near the waters south of Long Island / east of New Jersey, while filling rapidly to 999 mb.

Compare the evolution:

F72: 993 mb, offshore
F84: 993 mb, moving west
F90: 995 mb, farther west
F96: 999 mb, farther west again

So this is no longer ambiguous model-map noise. The 00Z GFS explicitly depicts a cyclone that stalls offshore and then tracks back toward the coast while weakening.

And the precipitation character changes substantially by F96. The intense compact wraparound band from earlier has weakened considerably, but the circulation is still producing a huge area of rain from NJ/NY through New England. So by Sunday evening the modeled problem has transitioned from a compact, intense coastal cyclone toward a broad, weakening circulation still capable of producing prolonged rainfall.

What strikes me most is how much farther the GFS has come compared with the runs we were watching yesterday. The disagreement used to be something like:

GFS: northeast and gone.
European guidance: trapped, then west.

Now the 00Z GFS itself is showing trapped, then west.

The exact center, rainfall amounts and timing can absolutely still change. But the synoptic mechanism of a trapped cyclone retrograding toward the Northeast has now survived another GFS cycle, and we're getting into the 3–4 day range.

[wthrmn654]

Crazy to think the nws is/ was going with a east storm even as the trend was clear as day since 6z today

[wthrmn654]

Icon nearly stalls out dropping pressure south of montauk point till ally 12 Sunday then starts crawling west ish

[wthrmn654]

Yep icon gfs and euro are all identical with exact placement only thing to figure out but they all stall, go west then loop then do something. 

[wthrmn654]

Throw in the cmc trying to play with the others but it's too shy and stays out by the cape.