September 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro/GFS both try to pop a 600dm ridge later this week over the southeast  

[aldie 22]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro/GFS both try to pop a 600dm ridge later this week over the southeast  

Thanks Chuck

[forkyfork]

maybe the cansips will be right about february

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/14/2026 at 2:13 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro/GFS both try to pop a 600dm ridge later this week over the southeast  

I think the US record is 6038dm or something like that.. imagine challenging it in mid-September, and not even over the most favorable zone SW, US

[stormy]

Many normal live streams in the Valley are dry.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here bluewave posted this in another thread

[Stormchaserchuck1]

23 hours ago, forkyfork said:

maybe the cansips will be right about february

lmao You should have seen how far off it was Days 1-5

[Jrlg1181]

4 hours ago, stormy said:

Many normal live streams in the Valley are dry.

Western Albemarle streams are super low as well , despite substantial more rainfall east of the mountains.. I think that the spine of the Blue Ridge from 33 down to the Tye River headwaters in Nelson have been missing the consistent rain as well -  that's been just a few miles to the east... With the exception being the eastern slopes of Afton - they have done great just like Charlottesville...

[WxUSAF]

12z guidance summary for Sunday-next week:

12z gfs ai: what rain?

12z gfs: sprinkles 

12z GGEM: rainy

12z euro ai: very rainy

12z euro: deluge 

[stormy]

This looks nice:

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, stormy said:

This looks nice:

It has @EastCoast NPZ in the heavy rain totals... so we have to toss it

[WxUSAF]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z guidance summary for Sunday-next week:

12z gfs ai: what rain?

12z gfs: sprinkles 

12z GGEM: rainy

12z euro ai: very rainy

12z euro: deluge 

12z gfs does have a frost risk for far NW zones at day 12…

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

12z guidance summary for Sunday-next week:

12z gfs ai: what rain?

12z gfs: sprinkles 

12z GGEM: rainy

12z euro ai: very rainy

12z euro: deluge 

I mean when it comes to which models I want on my side that’s basically a list from “hell no” to “great to have”

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean when it comes to which models I want on my side that’s basically a list from “hell no” to “great to have”

Basically. I actually saw some post recently saying GGEM now has highest verification scores!? But I think it’s gonna rain…

[aldie 22]

I'm heading west to Yosemite tomorrow through Tuesday coming home to 8" of rain could be fun. GFS is probably right though 

[yoda]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Basically. I actually saw some post recently saying GGEM now has highest verification scores!? But I think it’s gonna rain…

I vaguely remember seeing that somewhere too

[Araz07]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs does have a frost risk for far NW zones at day 12…

The 12z gfs also has a major hurricane spin around in the BoC for a week before heading north toward Texas...   

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Look at all that water. Good sign for the Winter probably if it gets cold enough. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

12z guidance summary for Sunday-next week:

12z gfs ai: what rain?

12z gfs: sprinkles 

12z GGEM: rainy

12z euro ai: very rainy

12z euro: deluge 

 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Basically. I actually saw some post recently saying GGEM now has highest verification scores!? But I think it’s gonna rain…

 

2 hours ago, yoda said:

I vaguely remember seeing that somewhere too

Yes I posted a Tweet in another thread but cannot find it. The Canadian has definitely seen an upgrade in its 500mb verification scores of late.