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September 2026 General Discussion


Chambana
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12:19 PM EDT Wednesday 2 September 2026

Impact Level: High

Forecast Confidence: High

Conditions are favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms that may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain.

Hazards:
Damaging winds with gusts in excess of 110 km/h possible.
Quarter to ping pong ball size hail.
Torrential downpours with local rainfall amounts up to 50 millimetres.
Risk of a tornado.

Timing:
This afternoon to this evening.

Additional information:
Thunderstorms are expected to develop mid to late this afternoon along and ahead of an advancing cold front. There still remains some uncertainty with how strong thunderstorms could become due to some lingering cloud cover across the region which could inhibit how much instability builds in. Latest trends in observational data and models still indicate that sufficient instability should build leading to a robust severe weather threat. 

The primary concern with any thunderstorms will be for strong and potentially damaging winds along with large hail and torrential rain. That being said, conditions could become favourable for some thunderstorms to be able to produce a tornado.

Very high gusts in this watch. The latest cells formed just to my east so dodged the 3rd round at noon which WUN picked up on. A cell near Flesherton that is elongating is exploding with a likely hail core and major lightning in less than 15 mins! These cells are already intense!

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59 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

Very high gusts in this watch. The latest cells formed just to my east so dodged the 3rd round at noon which WUN picked up on. A cell near Flesherton that is elongating is exploding with a likely hail core and major lightning in less than 15 mins! These cells are already intense!

large storms already NW of Toronto

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Huge meatball over Vaughan currently giving them likely large hail, some memories of Aug 20 too for some. The sups (if they are that mature yet) don't have the bean shape yet. 

I'm getting a few sunny breaks. More cells formed to my south but are petering out or will be the ignition for the further south stuff to erupt. There are values of SBCAPE of 5000 south of London! I think I'm around 2.5K, 1 STP, and 2 VTP lol. 

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4:54 PM EDT Wednesday 2 September 2026

Impact Level: Extreme

Forecast Confidence: Very High

At 4:53 PM EDT, a line of extremely dangerous thunderstorms is located from Bogies Beach to Bayfield then to Ipperwash Beach. These extremely dangerous thunderstorms are moving quickly to the east at 75 km/h. Destructive wind gusts, loonie to ping pong ball size hail and heavy rain are possible.

Locations and nearby areas that could be impacted include: Grand Bend, Hensall, Exeter, Parkhill, Mitchell, Listowel, Lucan, Stratford, Drayton, Tavistock

This is a 'red' warning for extreme stuff. That MCS is hauling, to give an idea how fast it was, it was near Bay City MI at 3pm now its near London ON just 2hr later!! I wish I was near Grand Bend to see that baddie come ashore, I'm sure the pics will be flowing shortly from there. 

I'm liking the EC radar now with its layers and detail, but its first wem (blemish) came to light just now when I had the radar and details loaded, but then the layer vanished and just gave me a message stating 'The radar layers are currently unavailable. We apologize for any inconvenience. Please try again later.' - Well I had them til you took them away; its stored in my RAM genius! :rolleyes:

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5:02 PM EDT Wednesday 2 September 2026

Impact Level: Extreme

Forecast Confidence: Very High

At 5:01 PM EDT, a thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado, is located over Seaforth. This thunderstorm is moving quickly to the east at 75 km/h. Destructive winds, damaging hail and flooding rainfall are possible.

Locations and nearby areas that could be impacted include: Egmondville, Seaforth, Dublin, Brodhagen, Mitchell, Monkton, Rostock, Milverton

Tor warning too. They likely issued it for the dangerous winds as I doubt there is notable rotation or any form for concern from the MCS. Now its caught up with another mcs moving slow over Baden.

 The blowoff from that immense MCS is causing a blob of light to mod rain that will reach me shortly as its darkening. This explosive convection is gnarly.

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