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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion


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Plenty of 40's for lows this AM across the area with our overall chilliest morning since back on June 2nd. The coldest reading was the 42.7 at Warwick DEOS. Below normal temperatures look to continue today before we start a warming trend that peaks on Thursday before we turn cooler again for the weekend and looking ahead we see some unseasonably chilly air by early next week. Highs may not get to far above 60 degrees for some of the higher spots by next Tuesday. Our next rain chances hold off till Sunday.

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On 9/14/2026 at 7:16 PM, Birds~69 said:

May have to dust off the flannel tonight, a real beaut. Crickets will be jamming... 

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Usually the crickets slow down when it's chilly! :P  On warm nights, they are roaring.

My low yesterday was 54 (lowest IMBY since June 9) and this morning was 57.  Am enjoying the dps in the 50s for a change.  Currently 59 with dp 57.

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Our beautiful autumnal weather continues with temperatures warming to a few degrees above normal both today and tomorrow with Highs not far from 80 degrees. We then start a sharp cooling trend over the weekend and into the new work week with temperatures by next week according to the ChescoWx forecast only in the low to mid 60's by the start of next week. The NWS forecast has those days about 10 degrees warmer – let’s see who is closer. Rain chances ramp up by late Saturday night into Sunday and Monday.

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lol, lows in the 30s are not going to happen. I can see lows in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, but no way are going to drop below 40. That hasn't happened in September in a very long time, and it would at or near record territory. Heck, we haven't even gone in the 30s in October in recent years. (The last time was Halloween weekend 2020.)

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Today will turn noticeably more humid with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal in the lower 80's for most spots. Some spots will see a shower this morning. A cold front crosses the area late tonight with maybe a couple showers. We turn a bit cooler and less humid tomorrow and Saturday with near normal temperatures. Rain chances increase by late Saturday night and look to last through the day on Sunday. We turn unseasonably chilly to start the new work week with my backyard ChescoWx model forecast keeping afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50's.

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12 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Something to keep an eye on albeit fantasy land

GFS has been consistently throwing a hurricane through the Caribbean into Florida last three days. The 12Z today has a 928 buzzsawing through Cuba the up the east side of Florida. 

I'm pretty sure it's a GFS long range bias... It's been spitting out fantasy range hurricanes in that region for like the past month it feels like. Goes away a few days then pops up again in that same time frame. 

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Next week looking wet... I don't have my official total nearby for the month but I believe we are already at 5" or so. Could we get back to back months of double digit(10"+) rainfall?

 

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The drought has been beaten back big time this summer, crazy this was the drought map just 3 months ago!

 

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to now:

 

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Today will be the last day for over a week with above normal temperatures in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees. We fall off to the upper 60's to low 70's tomorrow and with near record setting low maximum temperatures possible both Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures both of those days will struggle into the mid to upper 50's. Those temperatures are typical for November 10th! In addition to the unseasonable chill this week it will also be very wet. Rain chances increase by Sunday, and chances remain each and every day of the new work week. The in-house ChescoWx model predicts over 4 inches of rain this week!

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Saturday Night
A chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. High near 70. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Monday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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