September 2026

[TriPol]

Just now, qg_omega said:

looks like a miss atm which would equal a nice weekend so that would be ideal

The EURO is not a miss unless you live in California.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

looks like a miss atm which would equal a nice weekend so that would be ideal

Wtf are you talking about. The best model is a strong hit. Unless that changes then it will hit. 

[TriPol]

Just dances off the coast of boston and retrogrades to brush new england then goes out to sea.

[bluewave]

This will be a good test of the new google deep mind AI model which is similar to the Euro and AIFS looping back west toward the coast. 
 

 

 

[guinness77]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

looks like a miss atm which would equal a nice weekend so that would be ideal

Definitely not ready to dismiss the Euro. 4 to 5 days out is an entirety also. I’d prefer the miss myself but I can’t see it not having some kind of impact Friday to Sunday.  

[guinness77]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Just dances off the coast of boston and retrogrades to brush new england then goes out to sea.

Been dancing back and forth to fish for us and right off the coast of the Forks every other model run of GFS. Gonna be a long couple of days haha 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

[TriPol]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

That depends on which model you trust. If you trust the EURO, yes. If you trust the GFS, no... unless you're flying out of nova scotia.

[guinness77]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

Possibly, but Philly area might be impacted more Friday into Saturday than for my area here on LI. The one thing you might have to worry about is if Amtrak starts doing more construction/track/excavation work in the Tri-State area…yikes. 

[MJO812]

6z AI Euro

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Just dances off the coast of boston and retrogrades to brush new england then goes out to sea.

meh. the damage is done for anglers and a storm like this, early in the season is curtains for us. had two good days of offshore weather. thanks, regulators, for shutting porgy season down til sept 1st. black sea bass season finally opens, but it won't matter at all, as they will head offshore after this. its almost like they don't want us to catch fish.....fluke closes the 25th here, again, won't matter, no one will be able to fish. i know its supposed to be warmer and snowless this winter for us, but this morning i have my lined pants and flannel shirt on for my walk....feels like november weather.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

Possibly, but Philly area might be impacted more Friday into Saturday than for my area here on LI. The one thing you might have to worry about is if Amtrak starts doing more construction/track/excavation work in the Tri-State area…yikes. 

i'm worried about my daughter coming from orlando thursday; they were saying last night the storm will be cranking already. normally i don't follow much this time of year, but damn....

[Juturna]

GFS seems to chase the convection, leading to it's off shore solutions. Still a ways out though, could be correct, but I'm leaning towards the AI models on this.

[Poker2015]

Going to a wedding on the beach on Saturday in Asbury Park. How's mid afternoon looking? We got a chance of being clear until Saturday night?

[NEG NAO]

32 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Going to a wedding on the beach on Saturday in Asbury Park. How's mid afternoon looking? We got a chance of being clear until Saturday night?

Its going to be a perfect  beach day........storm is out to sea

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

nessun problema

[TriPol]

33 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Going to a wedding on the beach on Saturday in Asbury Park. How's mid afternoon looking? We got a chance of being clear until Saturday night?

Zero chance of being "clear."

[TriPol]

06z EURO holds serve. Retrograde around Riverhead and takes the LIE to NYC.

Every weather model has the storm retrograding... it's just where. The less accurate models have it OTS and then hitting Nova Scotia, the GFS has it doing a circle around Boston and the Euro takes it on the Grand Central to NYC.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Zero chance of being "clear."

clearing as HP is moving in -

[TriPol]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

clearing as HP is moving in

That's not even the GooFuS AI. I trust the baseline model GFS like I trust my dog not to eat a ribeye sitting in front of it for 5 minutes.

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, TriPol said:

That's not even the GooFuS AI. I trust the baseline model GFS like I trust my dog not to eat a ribeye sitting in front of it for 5 minutes.

did you expect yesterday to be partly sunny and mild a couple days out ? Saturday is still 4 days away - that HP in southeast Canada will control where the storm goes and I don't see it weakening to let the offshore storm backup towards the coast

[TriPol]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

did you expect yesterday to be partly sunny and mild a couple days out ? Saturday is still 4 days away

We need to create a bet on Kashi for this.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

We need to create a bet on Kashi for this.

Kashi a weather model ?

[MJO812]

101.1 was mentioning how this upcoming noreaster might be as bad as Sandy. Not even close.

[TriPol]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Kashi a weather model ?

Yeah. $5 says the EURO is right. You put $5 to bet the GFS. WinterWarlock puts in $5.... we all put in $5. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Kashi a weather model ?

They do weather bets

[TriPol]

Just now, MJO812 said:

101.1 was mentioning how this upcoming noreaster might be as bad as Sandy. Not even close.

That's just irresponsible. Yes, the storm is going to retrograde (unless all the models are wrong) but bad as Sandy is dumb.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

That's just irresponsible. Yes, the storm is going to retrograde (unless all the models are wrong) but bad as Sandy is dumb.

have to agree with you there - no way are boardwalks going to be ripped up and piers with roller coasters going to collapse into the Atlantic.

[OldSkool]

1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

Going to a wedding on the beach on Saturday in Asbury Park. How's mid afternoon looking? We got a chance of being clear until Saturday night?

Bring your foul weather gear and a life preserver.

[SACRUS]

61 / 53 after a nice break yesterday but back to the muck clouds / mist.  Perhaps a pleasant break Wed-Fri AM with some breaks in the clouds before we watch the trough cut off and subsequent ULL spin a storm that gets stuck later Fri - Monday.  Beyond there overall near to above normal 9/29 into the first week of Oct.