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68 / 57 another gorgeous day on tap  Warmer the next 48 hours  mid - upper 80s maybe a stray 90 in the hot locations inland, ahead of a front that could bring some showers, storms or scattered rain / clouds on thursd.  A period of near normal this upcoming weekend before ridge comes east and where it builds will be key in how much warmth can push into the northeast from mid month (next week). Overall warmer in the period beyond Sunday.

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2015)
NYC: 97 (2015)
LGA: 95 (2015)
JFK: 92 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 50 (1940)
NYC: 52 (1871)
LGA: 54 (1984)
JFK: 50 (1962)

Historical:

 

1900 - The greatest weather disaster in U.S. records occurred when a hurricane struck Galveston TX. A tide fifteen feet high washed over the island demolishing or carrying away buildings, and drowning more than 6000 persons. The hurricane destroyed more than 3600 houses, and total damage was more than thirty million dollars. Winds to 120 mph, and a twenty foot storm surge accompanied the hurricane. Following the storm, the surf was three hundred feet inland from the former water line. The hurricane claimed another 1200 lives outside of the Galveston area. (8th-9th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1900: A Category 4 storm made landfall in Galveston, Texas on this day in 1900. This hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000 individuals, making it the deadliest US Atlantic hurricane on record. The highest point in the city of Galveston was less than nine feet above sea level. The hurricane brought a storm surge of over 15 feet, which overwhelmed the entire island.

 

1925: In September 1925, South Carolina was in the middle of one of the most widespread and disastrous droughts in the state's history. The NWS Co-op station in Calhoun Falls reported 11 days above 100°F with a maximum temperature of 111°F on this day.

 

1987 - A tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina brought another round of heavy rain to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region and the Upper Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms produced extremely heavy rain in eastern Pennsylvania, where flooding caused more than 55 million dollars across a seven county area. The afternoon high of 97 degrees at Miami FL was a record for the month of September. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Eighteen cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Roanoke VA with a reading of 42 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced very heavy rain in the central U.S. Thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon produced five to nine inches of rain around Lincoln NE, with an unofficial total of eleven inches near Holmes Park. Up to six and a half inches of rain soaked northern and western Iowa. Eighty to ninety percent of the homes in Shenandoah IA, where 5.89 inches of rain was received, reported basement flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: A severe thunderstorm developed over the southern end of the Las Vegas Valley in Nevada. The storm moved north bringing damaging winds and heavy rain mainly across the eastern half of the metro area. Henderson Executive Airport recorded wind gusts of 80 mph. Air traffic control personnel temporarily evacuated the airport tower. Approximately 15 homes and trailers in Moapa were severely damaged by thunderstorm winds estimated at 80 to 90 mph.

 

2012: Severe storms impacted the New York City area, forcing a delay of the United States Open. A tornado hit a beach club in Queens, and another brought damage to Canarsie, Brooklyn, New York. 

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Still to see where the ridge forms mid month for a warmer period - 9/14 - 9/18th tendency has been more SW and we ride the periphery, but there have been several runs between and back and forth from the gfs and eur on a more expansive EC ridge.  Whatever warmup we realize the period beyond the 18th looks to have a brief but crisp cooldown in the period till the equinox.

 

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On 9/7/2026 at 6:35 AM, bluewave said:

Many spots in the Northeast are in the top 5 or 10 for 80° days through September 5th with the early start back in March. 
 

IMG_7532.thumb.jpeg.4bdbe303321873348e2d56997e6a906c.jpeg


 

 

Our local forecasters have said that 10 of the last 14 days have been below normal. It just hasn't been hot since July 15th. 80 degrees is an easy bar to clear in the summer as long as it's sunny and we are finally in a nice dry stretch with just an occasional frontal passage.  I think we'll finally get a nice dry month now.

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony did 1993 tie 1991 there or exceed it?

 

Here is newark 

 

90 degree Days:

 

Year Rank Days >= 90 °F
2010 1 54
2022 2 49
1993 2 49
1988 4 43
2021 5 41
2002 5 41
1991 5 41
2016 8 40
1983 8 40
1959 8 40
2025 11 39
1994 11 39
1944 11 39
2005 14 37
1987 14 37
2018 16 36
1949 16 36
2015 18 35
1961 19 34
2024 20 33
2012 20 33
1999 20 33
1995 20 33
1966 20 33

 

 

95 Degree Days


 

Year Rank Days >= 95 °F
1993 1 25
2010 2 21
1944 3 20
1988 3 20
2022 3 20
2021 6 18
1955 7 17
2002 7 17
2011 7 17
2012 7 17
1949 11 16
1953 12 14
2005 12 14
2025 12 14
1987 15 13
1991 15 13
1999 15 13
2016 15 13
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Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s tomorrow and Thursday. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday.

Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. the greatest likelihood for some showers is Thursday evening and Thursday night when a cold front crosses the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall.

The SOI was -26.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal). The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Here is newark 

 

90 degree Days:

 

Year Rank Days >= 90 °F
2010 1 54
2022 2 49
1993 2 49
1988 4 43
2021 5 41
2002 5 41
1991 5 41
2016 8 40
1983 8 40
1959 8 40
2025 11 39
1994 11 39
1944 11 39
2005 14 37
1987 14 37
2018 16 36
1949 16 36
2015 18 35
1961 19 34
2024 20 33
2012 20 33
1999 20 33
1995 20 33
1966 20 33

 

 

95 Degree Days


 

Year Rank Days >= 95 °F
1993 1 25
2010 2 21
1944 3 20
1988 3 20
2022 3 20
2021 6 18
1955 7 17
2002 7 17
2011 7 17
2012 7 17
1949 11 16
1953 12 14
2005 12 14
2025 12 14
1987 15 13
1991 15 13
1999 15 13
2016 15 13

So as of right now EWR isn't even in the top 20 for 90 degree days.

Also pretty insane that 1993 had nearly as many 95 degree days as we do 90 degree days this year.  Now that's hot.

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12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Our local forecasters have said that 10 of the last 14 days have been below normal. It just hasn't been hot since July 15th. 80 degrees is an easy bar to clear in the summer as long as it's sunny and we are finally in a nice dry stretch with just an occasional frontal passage.  I think we'll finally get a nice dry month now.

MPO has been fairly warm for September so far at +3.3°. The warm minimums are driving the departures there like in other places.

The min departure is +4.0° and the max +2.7. You guys have only dropped to 47° by 9-8 which  is the 2nd warmest low on record by September 8th.

NYC is actually doing a little better than you guys by falling to 61° which is 3rd warmest.

So this isn’t a UHI issue since all locations are experiencing warm minimums regardless of rural or urban settings. 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Warmest minimum temperature through 9-8
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
       
1 2018-09-08 48 0
- 2002-09-08 48 0
2 2026-09-08 47 0
- 2015-09-08 47 0
- 2005-09-08 47 0
- 1996-09-08 47 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Warmest minimum temperature by September 8th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2015-09-08 63 0
- 1980-09-08 63 0
2 2022-09-08 62 0
- 2020-09-08 62 0
- 2005-09-08 62 0
- 1995-09-08 62 0
3 2026-09-08 61 0
- 2023-09-08 61 0
- 2018-09-08 61 0
- 2016-09-08 61 0
- 2014-09-08 61 0
- 2012-09-08 61 0
- 1996-09-08 61 0
- 1966-09-08 61 0
- 1959-09-08 61 0


 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

MPO has been fairly warm for September so far at +3.3°. The warm minimums are driving the departures there like in other places.

The min departure is +4.0° and the max +2.7. You guys have only dropped to 47° by 9-8 which  is the 2nd warmest low on record by September 8th.

NYC is actually doing a little better than you guys by falling to 61° which is 3rd warmest.

So this isn’t a UHI issue since all locations are experiencing warm minimums regardless of rural or urban settings. 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Warmest minimum temperature through 9-8
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
       
1 2018-09-08 48 0
- 2002-09-08 48 0
2 2026-09-08 47 0
- 2015-09-08 47 0
- 2005-09-08 47 0
- 1996-09-08 47 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Warmest minimum temperature by September 8th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2015-09-08 63 0
- 1980-09-08 63 0
2 2022-09-08 62 0
- 2020-09-08 62 0
- 2005-09-08 62 0
- 1995-09-08 62 0
3 2026-09-08 61 0
- 2023-09-08 61 0
- 2018-09-08 61 0
- 2016-09-08 61 0
- 2014-09-08 61 0
- 2012-09-08 61 0
- 1996-09-08 61 0
- 1966-09-08 61 0
- 1959-09-08 61 0


 

I had that 47 here too in late August, it felt cold! My temperature is always within a degree or two of MPO  even though I'm south of there and about 300 feet lower in elevation. Those tv mets I quoted use Avoca airport for their stats it's always a few degrees warmer there.

I think the UHI effect comes into play with high population density and houses right next to each other. It does not allow for proper siting of weather equipment.  That's the only way I can explain the 107-105-104 three days at a VP2 weather station in Valley Stream in early July when JFK was 102-100-100 for the same three days.  That Davis unit even reached 101 on that smoke filled July 15 when the smoke stopped JFK from reaching 100 for a record breaking 4th day when they were stopped at 98 on that day.

Never got above 94 here and I think MPO peaked at 93.

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Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s tomorrow. A shower is possible tomorrow evening or tomorrow night. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Highs on both days will likely peak in the upper 70s.

The longer-term outlook has grown somewhat warmer through the middle of next week. In general, the temperature should top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s through the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. 

The SOI was -15.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.211 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.2° (1.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Highs:

EWR: 94 (1964) 
NYC: 94 (1915)
LGA: 93 (2016)
JFK: 93 (1959)


Lows:

EWR: 48 (1938)
NYC: 48 (1883)
LGA: 53 (1956)
JFK: 51 (1986)

Historical:

1775: The Independence Hurricane slammed into Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Many ships were sunk and buildings demolished. 4,000 people died in what is considered to be Canada's deadliest hurricane disaster. 

 

1821: A tornadic outbreak affected the New England states of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont on this day. Five tornadoes reportedly touched down from this event. One storm in New Hampshire had a path width of a half mile and tracked an estimated 23 miles. This tornado killed at least six individuals, which could be the deadliest tornado in New Hampshire history. 

1881: For the first time in 33 days, rain fell at Washington, DC. (Ref. for 33 day drought in 1881 )

1889: A hurricane that formed east of the Antilles moved north and then northward toward New Jersey. The storm came within 150 miles of Atlantic City, NJ before becoming nearly stationary for 4 days. The storm, one of the greatest storms to affect the shore and ocean, then turned to the southwest toward Norfolk, VA, and dissipated. Atlantic City measured a gust to 100 mph on the 10th. At Philadelphia, PA, rain began on the 10th. This began a period of 12 consecutive days of measurable rain, with a final total of 3.70 inches. Another sudden and damaging storm surge hit Long Island, NY and the Jersey shore during the evening on the 10th, following the 1st surge that hit on the 8th. The storm was located south of Cape Cod and east of Norfolk, VA, when the surge moved in. 29 ships were sunk in the Delaware Bay, killing at least 31 sailors. Officially, 40 lives were lost attributed to this hurricane. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1919: 300 lives were lost mostly in ships near Key West, where winds were reported at 110 mph as a violent hurricane caused considerable damage. Brick structures had walls blown out and large vessels were torn from their moorings and blown on banks. A tornado destroyed six buildings and damaged 19, injuring six people at Goulds in Dade County. This hurricane killed hundreds more on its track to south Texas. The final death toll of over 600 was mostly in ships at seas. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1921 - A dying tropical depression unloaded 38.2 inches of rain upon the town of Thrall in southeastern Texas killing 224 persons. 36.4 inches fell in 18 hours. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1944 - The ""Great Atlantic Hurricane"" ravaged the east coast. The storm killed 22 persons and caused 63 million dollars damage in the Chesapeake Bay area, then besieged New England killing 390 persons and causing another 100 million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1960: Extremely dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Donna was taking aim on the Florida Keys for the first of her four U.S. landfalls. On this date, Donnas’ winds peaked at 150 mph with a minimum central pressure of 934 millibars or 27.58 inches of mercury. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1964: Hurricane Dora, the first storm of hurricane intensity to cross into northeast Florida from the Atlantic in 80 years of record keeping, moved inland over St. Augustine early on the 10th. St. Augustine was in the eye of the storm and recorded a sea level pressure of 966 millibars or 28.52 inches of mercury. Dora produced sustained winds of around 100 mph, and abnormally high tides to almost all coastal points north of Daytona Beach. Highest sustained winds, from the southwest, and estimated at 125 mph were reported at St. Augustine. Sustained winds of 82 mph were recorded in Jacksonville, and this was the first time in Weather Bureau history that winds of full hurricane force have been observed in Jacksonville. Storm tides reached 12 feet at St. Augustine and ranged between 5 and l0 feet above normal north of Daytona Beach. High winds in the Jacksonville area caused a massive utilities failure. One death and 8 injuries were reported from Dora. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

 

1965: Hurricane Betsy slammed into New Orleans on the evening of September 9, 1965. 110 mph winds and power failures were reported in New Orleans. The eye of the storm passed to the southwest of New Orleans on a northwesterly track. The northern and western eyewalls covered Southeast Louisiana and the New Orleans area from about 8 PM until 4 AM the next morning. In Thibodaux, winds of 130 mph to 140 mph were reported. The Baton Rouge weather bureau operated under auxiliary power, without telephone communication.

 

1971 - Hurricane Ginger formed, and remained a hurricane until the 5th of October. The 27 day life span was the longest of record for any hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean. (The Weather Channel)

1976: Record rains that started on this day and ended on the 12th came from Tropical Storm Kathleen (called a 160+ year event by Meteorologists). 14.76 inches fell on south slopes of Mt. San Gorgonio, 10.13 inches at Mt. Laguna, 8 inches at Mt. San Jacinto, Over 4 inches in the Little San Bernardino Mountains, and 1.8 to 2.8 inches in the Coachella Valley. Deep Canyon (above La Quinta) recorded 2.96 inches in three hours on the 10th. Rainfall in the Santa Rosa Mountains above the Coachella Valley was called the “heaviest in recorded history.” Six were buried and killed in sand in Ocotillo. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: On this date through the 10th, strong winds blasted through east central South Dakota, leaving in its wake damaged crops, hundreds of downed trees, broken windows, damaged roofs and buildings, downed power poles, and damaged vehicles. Gusts of up to 75 mph in Huron moved a semi trailer one-half block into a truck. Standing crops of corn, beans, and sunflowers suffered extensive damage in many areas with losses up to 50% reported. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986: An F-16 fighter jet had its windshield cracked by hail on its return to the Eagle Range Training Grounds near UT’s Great Salt Lake. A lightning bolt caused a hole 6 inches deep and 6 inches wide on a runway at the Salt Lake Int’l Airport. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the central U.S. Thunderstorms in West Texas spawned four tornadoes in the vicinity of Lubbock, and produced baseball size hail and wind gusts to 81 mph at Ropesville. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter at Downs KS and Harvard NE, breaking car windows at Harvard. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Florence became a hurricane and headed for the Central Gulf Coast Region. Florence made landfall early the next morning, passing over New Orleans LA. Winds gusts to 80 mph were recorded at an oil rig south of the Chandeleur Islands. Wind gusts around New Orleans reached 61 mph. Total property damage from Florence was estimated at 2.5 million dollars. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - The first snow of the season began to whiten the mountains of Wyoming early in the morning, as for two days a moist and unusually cold storm system affected the state. By the morning of the 11th, a foot of snow covered the ground at Burgess Junction. Thunderstorms developing along a cold front crossing the Ohio Valley produced severe weather in Indiana during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Strong thunderstorm winds blew down a tent at Palestine injuring seven persons, and frequent lightning interrupted the Purdue and Miami of Ohio football game, clearing the stands. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1994: Glasgow, Montana: Temperature rises from 67°F at 5:02 AM to 97°F by 5:17 am. Heat burst is short-lived as temperature drops to 68°F by 5:40 AM the next morning. (Ref. WxDoctor) Hurricane John became extratropical in the north central Pacific Ocean, ending its 31-day life span as a tropical cyclone, the longest lived storm on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Western and central New York was inundated by drenching rains as the remnants of hurricane Frances drifted north. Area-wide rainfall totaled 3 to 5 inches with the bulk of it falling in a 6 to 9 hour period from very late on this date into the next day. At least one person was killed. Across the border, heavy rains of close to 4 inches over southern Quebec Canada. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Nome, AK reached a high temperature of 62°, which tied the high temperature record for the date and represented the third day during the month that a high temperature record was either tied or broken. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)



2011: The remnants of Lee that was a very slow moving low pressure over Ohio has now been absorbed into the circulation a low over illinois and is expected to weaken through Saturday morning. The heavy rains over the Mid-Atlantic have diminished in coverage and are now limited to central and eastern Pennsylvania. Rainfall totals for VA- Colonial Beach 1.2 SSE 20.96, Woodbridge 0.5 SSW 16.20, Lorton 1.2 NE 15.09, Fort Belvoir/Davison AFB 13.77, Reston 2 N 11.45, Chantilly 2 ESE 10.18, Quantico MCAF 9.01, Copper Hill 6.2 S 8.89, Washington National 6.90, Richmond Byrd Field 6.06 Inches. (Ref. Rainfall Totals for 20 Other States - NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs, MD) Rich Hanauer lives in Furlong PA, between Philadelphia and Trenton NJ. Buckingham, PA (In this article) is just north of Philadelphia that had 24.71 inches of rain from Aug. 1st to today. (Ref. Newspaper Article from PA on flooding ) (Ref. Map of Rainfall Totals for VA from Sep. 5th to 9th)

 

2013: Historical rainfall occurred in northern Colorado from September 9 to September 16 and resulted in severe flash flooding along the northern Front Range of Colorado and subsequent river flooding downstream along the S

 

2017: Hurricane Irma was downgraded to a Category 3 storm shortly before noon Saturday after its maximum sustained winds weakened to 125 mph, but it was expected to strengthen before moving toward southwest Florida on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center said Irma was continuing to slam the north coast of Cuba Saturday but had weakened slightly. As of 2:00 p.m. EDT, the storm was located about 145 miles southeast of Key West, Fla.

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