August 2026

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1988)
NYC: 97 (1988)
LGA: 97 (1985)
JFK: 98 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 54 (1964)
NYC: 54 (1964)
LGA: 59 (1964)
JFK: 57 (1964)

Historical:


 

1787 - Tornadoes were reported in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Wethersfield CT was hard hit by the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum)

1886: This tornado was estimated to be an F3 and moved northeast from 5 miles southwest of Newark, SD through town and into North Dakota. Only three buildings were reportedly undamaged at Newark, and a bartender at a saloon was killed. Three people died in two homes on adjoining farms two miles southwest of town. A saddle from a Newark stable was carried for a half mile. In North Dakota, homes and barns was damaged along the Wild River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1946 - Saint Louis, MO, was deluged with a record 8.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1950: In 45 years of Hawaiian meteorological records, a hurricane had never affected the islands. On this date, Hurricane Hiki was moving north of the islands. Residents held their breath when the storm turned southwestward. Fortunately, the storm resumed its westward course and missed the islands. The highest wind speed recorded was at Kilauea Lighthouse, Kauai at 68 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967 - The sundance fire in northern Idaho was started by lightning. Winds of 50 mph carried firebrands as much as ten miles in advance to ignite new fires, and as a result, the forest fire spread twenty miles across the Selkirk Mountains in just twelve hours, burning 56,000 acres. The heat of the fire produced whirlwinds of flame with winds up to 300 mph which flung giant trees about like matchsticks. (David Ludlum)

1969: Camille became a hurricane south of Cuba and entered the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1971: Some of the worst flooding that ever occurred in western north Texas happened on this date. Heavy rain began on the 14th, but the worst of the rain and most of the flooding was on this date. On that day, rainfall amounted 4 to 11 inches. The Wichita River, on the northwest side of Wichita Falls, TX crested at its highest level in 30 years. At least 10 families were forced to evacuate their homes along the river as the waters rapidly rose. The river also rose so high that its swift-flowing waters undercut several streets, causing them to collapse. The official rainfall at the National Weather Service Office in Wichita Falls was 4.52 inches, making this the wettest August day ever observed in the city. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1977: Lightning struck a cement well covering near Mankato, MN, causing shattered pieces of concrete to be blown over 30 feet, damaging cars.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)  Hurricane Doreen tracked north-northwest along the west coast of Baja California, dissipating over the coastal waters. Areas of southern California received at least two inches of rain with up to 8 inches in the mountains on this date through the 17th. Debris flows and flooding from Henderson Canyon into the Borrego Springs De Anza area damaged 100 homes. Mud flows grew to five feet deep. Flooded roads resulted in desert areas. Four people died and damage was set at $25 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Early season chill across the Midwest and East produced record low temperatures for the date including: International Falls, MN: 33°, Grand Forks, ND: 36°, Madison, WI: 37°, St. Cloud, MN: 39°, Fargo, ND: 43°, La Crosse, WI: 43°, Dubuque, IA: 45°, Peoria, IL: 45°, Indianapolis, IN: 45°, Mansfield, OH: 46°-Tied, Moline, IL: 47°-Tied, Akron, OH: 47°- Tied, Youngstown, OH: 47°-Tied and Cincinnati, OH: 49°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983 - Hurricane Alicia formed on this day and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $2.6 billion (1983 USD) in damage and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961. Also, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history.

1987 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a sharp cold front produced severe weather in the Upper Midwest during the afternoon and evening hours, with Minnesota and eastern South Dakota hardest hit. A thunderstorm in west central Minnesota spawned a tornado at Eagle Lake which killed one person and injured eight others. A thunder- storm in eastern South Dakota produced softball size hail at Warner. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty five cities in twenty states in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA and Baltimore MD, where the mercury hit 105 degrees. Temperatures 100 degrees or above were reported in twenty-two states. Pierre SD was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 114 degrees. Bluefield WV reported eight straight days of record heat. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Clovis. Evening thunderstorms in West Texas produced baseball size hail around Hereford, Dimmitt, Ware and Dalhart. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: Slow moving thunderstorms produced torrential rain across Mower County, MN. Rainfall exceeded 4.00" over most of the county with the highest total of 10.25" at Adams, MN. Significant flooding occurred within the city of Austin, MN, where 1,000 homes suffered water damage. The Cedar River in Austin rose rapidly out of its banks through the day. It crested at 21.3 feet, 6.3 feet above flood stage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Tropical Storm Beryl formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and moved slowly east northeast, crossing the Florida panhandle coastline near Panama City. Beryl greatly added to the woes of people who were still recovering from Tropical Storm Alberto in July. At landfall the maximum sustained wind was estimated at 60 mph. The greatest rainfall total of 10.69 inches were observed at Apalachicola, but higher values likely occurred to the east of this location. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression as it moved northeast into extreme southwest Georgia at early on the 16th. There were no deaths and only 1 injury directly attributable to Beryl and damage was estimated at $5.9 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Severe flooding in Death Valley National Park in California caused extensive flooding. The flooding completely washed away several miles of roadway and caused damage to several rest areas. Two people traveling along Highway 190 were caught in the flooding and killed. Damage was estimated at $20 million dollars and took 3 months to completely repair the damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. WxDoctor)

[SACRUS]

Aug dep through the 14th (first two weeks)

PHL: +4.6
JFK: +2.9
ISP: +2.9
EWR: +2.8
LGA: +2.4
NYC: +1.1

[LoboLeader1]

16 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Forunately this will not come to fruition this weekend in the tri-state area.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Forunately this will not come to fruition this weekend in the tri-state area.

Yeah chances of heavy rain have dropped

[MarcmmKU]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 80s in a few warm spots to start the weekend. Clouds will increase on Sunday holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s.

Showers and thundershowers are likely Sunday night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours.

Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along wth partly to mostly sunny skies. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -22.03 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.810 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

Thoughts on late august and sept? Do you think summer sticks around till October or do we get an early start to fall?

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Thoughts on late august and sept? Do you think summer sticks around till October or do we get an early start to fall?

Late August/early September: Probably near normal with perhaps a cool period. Remainder of September: generally above normal. October: I am really uncertain.

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase tomorrow holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours.

Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. 

Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -24.10 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.530 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[donsutherland1]

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled August day with a light breeze and low humidity:

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (1988)
NYC: 97 (1988)
LGA: 97 (1985)
JFK: 98 (1988)


Lows:

EWR: 54 (1964)
NYC: 54 (1964)
LGA: 59 (1964)
JFK: 57 (1964)

Historical:


 

1787 - Tornadoes were reported in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Wethersfield CT was hard hit by the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum)

1886: This tornado was estimated to be an F3 and moved northeast from 5 miles southwest of Newark, SD through town and into North Dakota. Only three buildings were reportedly undamaged at Newark, and a bartender at a saloon was killed. Three people died in two homes on adjoining farms two miles southwest of town. A saddle from a Newark stable was carried for a half mile. In North Dakota, homes and barns was damaged along the Wild River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1946 - Saint Louis, MO, was deluged with a record 8.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1950: In 45 years of Hawaiian meteorological records, a hurricane had never affected the islands. On this date, Hurricane Hiki was moving north of the islands. Residents held their breath when the storm turned southwestward. Fortunately, the storm resumed its westward course and missed the islands. The highest wind speed recorded was at Kilauea Lighthouse, Kauai at 68 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967 - The sundance fire in northern Idaho was started by lightning. Winds of 50 mph carried firebrands as much as ten miles in advance to ignite new fires, and as a result, the forest fire spread twenty miles across the Selkirk Mountains in just twelve hours, burning 56,000 acres. The heat of the fire produced whirlwinds of flame with winds up to 300 mph which flung giant trees about like matchsticks. (David Ludlum)

1969: Camille became a hurricane south of Cuba and entered the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1971: Some of the worst flooding that ever occurred in western north Texas happened on this date. Heavy rain began on the 14th, but the worst of the rain and most of the flooding was on this date. On that day, rainfall amounted 4 to 11 inches. The Wichita River, on the northwest side of Wichita Falls, TX crested at its highest level in 30 years. At least 10 families were forced to evacuate their homes along the river as the waters rapidly rose. The river also rose so high that its swift-flowing waters undercut several streets, causing them to collapse. The official rainfall at the National Weather Service Office in Wichita Falls was 4.52 inches, making this the wettest August day ever observed in the city. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1977: Lightning struck a cement well covering near Mankato, MN, causing shattered pieces of concrete to be blown over 30 feet, damaging cars.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)  Hurricane Doreen tracked north-northwest along the west coast of Baja California, dissipating over the coastal waters. Areas of southern California received at least two inches of rain with up to 8 inches in the mountains on this date through the 17th. Debris flows and flooding from Henderson Canyon into the Borrego Springs De Anza area damaged 100 homes. Mud flows grew to five feet deep. Flooded roads resulted in desert areas. Four people died and damage was set at $25 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: Early season chill across the Midwest and East produced record low temperatures for the date including: International Falls, MN: 33°, Grand Forks, ND: 36°, Madison, WI: 37°, St. Cloud, MN: 39°, Fargo, ND: 43°, La Crosse, WI: 43°, Dubuque, IA: 45°, Peoria, IL: 45°, Indianapolis, IN: 45°, Mansfield, OH: 46°-Tied, Moline, IL: 47°-Tied, Akron, OH: 47°- Tied, Youngstown, OH: 47°-Tied and Cincinnati, OH: 49°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983 - Hurricane Alicia formed on this day and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $2.6 billion (1983 USD) in damage and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961. Also, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history.

1987 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a sharp cold front produced severe weather in the Upper Midwest during the afternoon and evening hours, with Minnesota and eastern South Dakota hardest hit. A thunderstorm in west central Minnesota spawned a tornado at Eagle Lake which killed one person and injured eight others. A thunder- storm in eastern South Dakota produced softball size hail at Warner. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty five cities in twenty states in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA and Baltimore MD, where the mercury hit 105 degrees. Temperatures 100 degrees or above were reported in twenty-two states. Pierre SD was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 114 degrees. Bluefield WV reported eight straight days of record heat. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Clovis. Evening thunderstorms in West Texas produced baseball size hail around Hereford, Dimmitt, Ware and Dalhart. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: Slow moving thunderstorms produced torrential rain across Mower County, MN. Rainfall exceeded 4.00" over most of the county with the highest total of 10.25" at Adams, MN. Significant flooding occurred within the city of Austin, MN, where 1,000 homes suffered water damage. The Cedar River in Austin rose rapidly out of its banks through the day. It crested at 21.3 feet, 6.3 feet above flood stage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Tropical Storm Beryl formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and moved slowly east northeast, crossing the Florida panhandle coastline near Panama City. Beryl greatly added to the woes of people who were still recovering from Tropical Storm Alberto in July. At landfall the maximum sustained wind was estimated at 60 mph. The greatest rainfall total of 10.69 inches were observed at Apalachicola, but higher values likely occurred to the east of this location. Beryl weakened to a tropical depression as it moved northeast into extreme southwest Georgia at early on the 16th. There were no deaths and only 1 injury directly attributable to Beryl and damage was estimated at $5.9 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Severe flooding in Death Valley National Park in California caused extensive flooding. The flooding completely washed away several miles of roadway and caused damage to several rest areas. Two people traveling along Highway 190 were caught in the flooding and killed. Damage was estimated at $20 million dollars and took 3 months to completely repair the damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. WxDoctor)

1988 had such an incredible hot summer, this is an example of what I mean when I say the heat was much more extensive and longer lasting in the 80s and 90s in the summer than it is now. This has nothing to do with Central Park foliage issues this was literally coast to coast heat that lasted the entire summer.

Other examples include 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002.

By the way in yesterday's post you mentioned that Boston's all time August high of 101 happened in 2002?

[LibertyBell]

On 8/14/2026 at 1:04 PM, bluewave said:

That’s the acceleration of the water cycle at work. So we see more swings between drought and flooding.

I agree that flooding is more damaging for regions like ours and the Midwest. 

But the West is a different story. There they get extreme droughts leading to wildfires that are frequently more dangerous than rainfall flooding is in our area and the Midwest.

Plus the smoke from the fires creates air pollution for the entire CONUS. They can also get serious floods from time to time especially in the burn scar areas. 

I cant help but think this is nature's way of dealing with climate change. In an ironic twist more smoke from wildfires, more flooding rains and more of a sea breeze at the coast have all resulted in less extensive and sustained coast to coast extreme heat than what we observed during the 80s and 90s in the specific years I outlined above. Do you think the planet has a heat ceiling that is close to being reached during the summer beyond which it physically can't get any hotter? The slower rise of temperatures in the summer hint at this while winter and other seasons warm faster. Also faster warming rates the farther north you go where the heat ceiling is higher even in summer. I think we'll eventually approach heat entropy when the temperature difference between the poles and the tropics is lower than it's ever been before.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/14/2026 at 12:14 PM, SACRUS said:

if you use 1997/1998 Super enso state as an analog the following 1998 summer was not that hot, 1999 / 202would be the better analog

That's why I've been wondering if the el nino really becomes historic if the bake off summer will be in 2028 rather than 2027. This one might be more like 1998 rather than 1983.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/14/2026 at 11:57 AM, winterwx21 said:

It was cloudy again here last night. We had that nice airmass come in on Wednesday with sunny skies and low humidity, yet we couldn't get one clear night for the meteor shower. Terrible luck. Complete bust here this year for the Perseids. Hopefully we'll have much better luck for the Geminids in December. Of course there are a few smaller meteor showers before then. 

Apparently it was completely clear last night but I was too tired to stay up and look. I wonder what the rate would have been two nights after peak? The Perseids drop off rapidly after peak and I've never tried to look two nights after the peak.

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:

PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 86
EWR: 85
LGA: 85
TTN: 85
TEB: 84
NYC: 83
ACY: 82
ISP: 82
JFK: 82
BLM: 82

[SACRUS]

 

With PHL's 90 today its their 38th of the season and move the to their most ever 12 more than EWR (26) so far.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1988 had such an incredible hot summer, this is an example of what I mean when I say the heat was much more extensive and longer lasting in the 80s and 90s in the summer than it is now. This has nothing to do with Central Park foliage issues this was literally coast to coast heat that lasted the entire summer.

Other examples include 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002.

By the way in yesterday's post you mentioned that Boston's all time August high of 101 happened in 2002?

1988 was a hot summer, but came to an end in mid-August. The last 90-degree day at PHL was on 8/17. That one turned cold so fast, and produced one of the coldest Octobers of all time, even colder than 1976.

[SACRUS]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1988 had such an incredible hot summer, this is an example of what I mean when I say the heat was much more extensive and longer lasting in the 80s and 90s in the summer than it is now. This has nothing to do with Central Park foliage issues this was literally coast to coast heat that lasted the entire summer.

Other examples include 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002.

By the way in yesterday's post you mentioned that Boston's all time August high of 101 happened in 2002?

It depends on where youre comparing

If you use EWR  you can agree 2010, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2025 all had more >35 90 degree days.

100 degree days

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2025	3	7
2022	4	6
1953	4	6
1988	6	5
1966	6	5
2011	8	4
2010	8	4
1955	8	4
1944	8	4
2012	12	3
2006	12	3
2005	12	3
2001	12	3
1999	12	3

 

95> Degree days:

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1993	1	25
2010	2	21
2022	3	20
1988	3	20
1944	3	20
2021	6	18
2012	7	17
2011	7	17
2002	7	17
1955	7	17
1949	11	16
2025	12	14
2005	12	14
1953	12	14
2016	15	13
1999	15	13
1991	15	13
1987	15	13

 

90 Degree Days

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 90 °F
2010	1	54
2022	2	49
1993	2	49
1988	4	43
2021	5	41
2002	5	41
1991	5	41
2016	8	40
1983	8	40
1959	8	40
2025	11	39
1994	11	39
1944	11	39
2005	14	37
1987	14	37
2018	16	36
1949	16	36
2015	18	35

 

[donsutherland1]

Sunrise this morning.