Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[kdxken]

11 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

BOS August entering today  

DPTR FM NORMAL:   2.7

Lost another one yesterday.  2.6 today. Hartford now  0.9, Providence 1.1 and Worcester 1.6. torch! So much for the majors being between 2.0 and 4.0

[weatherwiz]

The NHC will be reducing the probs on that wave in over the next day, just like we saw last week 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Weather_or_Not said:

Note the lack of actual crisp air (SUB 55 DEWS) on this chart. 2025 had 290 hours under 55 DP (3rd best), 2026 has 14 hrs (all time worst). 

 

Here's hoping Saturday brings us our first crisp day (low 50s dew) of August - fingers crossed!

Interesting that two of those "low dew August" years on top, 1957 and 1982, lead into strong El Nino events...the bottom "dewy August" list is comprised of predominately cool ENSO...yet here we are, heading that list. Tell me that the extra tropical Pacific is still at odds with ENSO without telling me-

[dendrite]

44 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Lost another one yesterday.  2.6 today. Hartford now  0.9, Providence 1.1 and Worcester 1.6. torch! So much for the majors being between 2.0 and 4.0

Still a shot at top 5 warmest August at CON

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting that two of those "low dew August" years on top, 1957 and 1982, lead into strong El Nino events...the bottom "dewy August" list is comprised of predominately cool ENSO...yet here we are, heading that list. Tell me that the extra tropical Pacific is still at odds with ENSO without telling me-

1991 and 2018 also on the dewy list.....1991 was a strong El Nino with essentially neutral PDO and 2018 weak El Nino with decidedly negative PDO....both made my extra tropical Pacific analog composite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Summer 2026 Ground Truth Still Somewhat Redolent of Cool ENSO

  Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS.

 

This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS.

 

Here is the 2026 individual summer season compared to those preceding the past four strong El Nino events, which have gotten progressively warmer :

 

 

 

 

 

Some of this difference is likely attributable to the general pattern of expanding ridges and shrinking troughs that is a byproduct of climate change.

 

However, since the pattern this summer is essentially the diametric opposite of the one in the summer composite preceding intense El Niño, it is fair to wonder if the developing intense El Niño is continuing to face more MC competition than is readily apparent. Note the similarity to summer 2026 with the summer composite preceding strong La Niña events.

 

 

Obviously it isn't a perfect match, as there are higher heights over the northeastern CONUS in the La Niña composite (left), but the argument could be made that it is a stronger match to 2026 than the intense El Niño summer composite.

[dendrite]

Coldest Aug on record for CON is 1903. What in the sam hell is this? One day above 80° and only 82°.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Coldest Aug on record for CON is 1903. What in the sam hell is this? One day above 80° and only 82°.

Brutal 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Coldest Aug on record for CON is 1903. What in the sam hell is this? One day above 80° and only 82°.

My dream-August, that's what.

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My dream-August, that's what.

Check out that JJA for all sites. Absolutely unreal. It’s hard to imagine that happening today.

[dendrite]

June 1903 at BOS…holy hell at that stretch around the solstice

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Lost another one yesterday.  2.6 today. Hartford now  0.9, Providence 1.1 and Worcester 1.6. torch! So much for the majors being between 2.0 and 4.0

So much for the +10 everyone forecasted, right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Check out that JJA for all sites. Absolutely unreal. It’s hard to imagine that happening today.

No way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

June 1903 at BOS…holy hell at that stretch around the solstice

"On the 233rd consecutive day of rains, I fastened the business-end of the noose to Sally-Mae's tree house and donned thy rubbers for added weight"

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NHC will be reducing the probs on that wave in over the next day, just like we saw last week 

ha, didn't think it would happen with the 8:00 update lol

[wx2fish]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still a shot at top 5 warmest August at CON

Something is up with the MHT records. Theres been ongoing discrepancy between the two, but this month is glaring. MHT is 0.4F for Aug. Avg temp is warmer than CON this month, so I dont think its just a warm sensor

[Chrisrotary12]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

June 1903 at BOS…holy hell at that stretch around the solstice

Almost hard to envision that meteorologically. Had to be a very blocked pattern with a negatively tilted trough axis just west of the region and a gyre spinning off the coast drawing in cold, moist air from the north Atlantic. 

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Something is up with the MHT records. Theres been ongoing discrepancy between the two, but this month is glaring. MHT is 0.4F for Aug. Avg temp is warmer than CON this month, so I dont think its just a warm sensor

Not sure what they’re using for normals at MHT because the climate records didn’t start back up there again until ASOS took over in 96 or 97 there. So they would technically be outside the 1991-2020 window.

Maybe they’re using 15 year normals there while everyone else is on 30?

[kdxken]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still a shot at top 5 warmest August at CON

Do pawpaw trees throw heat? 2.7 above in Concord while Manchester is 0.4 above 20 miles to the South. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not sure what they’re using for normals at MHT because the climate records didn’t start back up there again until ASOS took over in 96 or 97 there. So they would technically be outside the 1991-2020 window.

Maybe they’re using 15 year normals there while everyone else is on 30?

Looks like MHT has 30 year normals, but I’m not sure what the statistical process is to incorporate (or not incorporate) that chunk of years from the 90s.

[FXWX]

10 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

click around here and you can find the 1,000 ensemble run

https://polarwx.com/tropical/#al962026/super

also weathernerds.org  is good

Got it... Thanks, I forgot about Polar wx

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Do pawpaw trees throw heat? 2.7 above in Concord while Manchester is 0.4 above 20 miles to the South. 

Way more Massholes up here than normal resdistributing their body heat to get away from all of the rain

[wxeyeNH]

Not really totally weather related but wow.  I very seldom go down to the Boston area.  It's been many years.  We went down yesterday and it amazing to see how much  solar is down there compared to up here in Grafton County NH.  Is it we are cloudier and further north or politics?   We love our solar roof and have had credit electric bills the past few months.  Sunny weather is boring but it does help the mood when the meter is "spinning" backward.....and with my electric car we were able to make it back on electric.  So I'm glad it's a sunny day to charge the car back up.  I try to charge on sunny days.  Ok, back to weather...

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Got it... Thanks, I forgot about Polar wx

Looks like a fish to me.

[Ginx snewx]

COC

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Something is up with the MHT records. Theres been ongoing discrepancy between the two, but this month is glaring. MHT is 0.4F for Aug. Avg temp is warmer than CON this month, so I dont think its just a warm sensor

MHT running cooler than normal this year?

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, Weather_or_Not said:

Note the lack of actual crisp air (SUB 55 DEWS) on this chart. 2025 had 290 hours under 55 DP (3rd best), 2026 has 14 hrs (all time worst). 

 

Here's hoping Saturday brings us our first crisp day (low 50s dew) of August - fingers crossed!

Lol my temp was 54 this morning 

[Ginx snewx]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Middle of the road dews

That's totally meh for what traditionally is the dewydog days.

 

I was having the same issues as you with the well. Spent 5k got the well fracked and a new pump. Tremendous difference 

 

 I am sure you monitor but in case..

 

https://nhdes.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/6b333fa640994c17a31993a9e529804

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way.

Said everyone about Feb 1934. Never say never.  

[weatherwiz]

HRRR gone wild tomorrow