vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Saw this for the Mid-Atlantic. First they issued a large SVR box, then 25 min later a "nested" TOR box. I don't recall ever seeing this before. Has it occurred though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 6 minutes ago, vortex95 said: The "barrier" is in place. 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yup...you're not getting anything going in that. When those two waves the NHC flagged last week crapped the bed that was a tell tale sign of where things stand. Environmental conditions aren't going to be getting any better either. Now folks may look at that and say we gotta watch the Gulf and northern Caribbean for home brew, but it should be noted the shear is only weak there because of the large scale ridging. Once that breaks down and we get troughs and fronts digging into the southern states that will change. I mean…what can you say Hopefully I can get the peak season forecast done tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Just now, vortex95 said: Saw this for the Mid-Atlantic. First they issued a large SVR box, then 25 min later a "nested" TOR box. I don't recall ever seeing this before. Has it occurred though? Yeah I don’t recall seeing anything like that—certainly not recently in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah I don’t recall seeing anything like that—certainly not recently in the east. It just seems that it could have been a TOR N side, and the S side a SVR given the tor probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 I would be willing to bet that was planned that way. Goal was to get the SVR out first and then hone down on an area where combination of ingredients overlapped most for a tornado risk. Probably why the time delay between the two...discussion on the SVR with local offices and then discussion on the area for the tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 This made me chuckle: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would be willing to bet that was planned that way. Goal was to get the SVR out first and then hone down on an area where combination of ingredients overlapped most for a tornado risk. Probably why the time delay between the two...discussion on the SVR with local offices and then discussion on the area for the tornado watch It can be confusing to the public and emergency management. They have procedures in place when a SVR box is issued, and then 25 min later a TOR? Just not very efficient. Some may ask, does it mean anything to have "both" at the same time? This is valid question for the non-met! And what about watch box stats for a given area? Just have two discrete boxes issued at the same time. N area TOR and S area SVR in this case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 41 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Saw this for the Mid-Atlantic. First they issued a large SVR box, then 25 min later a "nested" TOR box. I don't recall ever seeing this before. Has it occurred though? Inside the danger zone is the Armageddon zone, ha. That’s how the public reads that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 13 minutes ago, vortex95 said: It can be confusing to the public and emergency management. They have procedures in place when a SVR box is issued, and then 25 min later a TOR? Just not very efficient. Some may ask, does it mean anything to have "both" at the same time? This is valid question for the non-met! And what about watch box stats for a given area? Just have two discrete boxes issued at the same time. N area TOR and S area SVR in this case. I'd be curious if something similar has happened before...I would think it has (just not very common). This would be a good question for @OceanStWx I actually kind of like this and this falls in line with the new modifications to the SPC outlooks. As we become more knowledgeable in the area of severe weather and with advancements in technology and modelling I think it's a great idea to be able to try and narrow down areas of "greatest" potential within an overall larger area. I agree it can be confusing to emergency management and the public but this is where educating and communicating to emergency management and the public becomes critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I mean…what can you say Hopefully I can get the peak season forecast done tonight. Semi interesting EPS run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Got this in College Park MD a short time ago. @CoastalWx can't get anything remotely close to this in Weymouth this year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Semi interesting EPS run 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 32 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Inside the danger zone is the Armageddon zone, ha. That’s how the public reads that. I see you are thinking in the abstract like me, and I did not even think like that here! MSM or random social media hype-master be like:"FIRST TIME EV-A a tornado watch has been issued INSIDE a severe watch!!!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 1 minute ago, kdxken said: The "barrier" reigns supreme. I am not sure the global models always fully acknowledge this wind shear barrier, esp. in the longer range. Yes, they may fcst it to wane, but no reason to think it will given how strong El Nino is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 38 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Inside the danger zone is the Armageddon zone, ha. That’s how the public reads that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 50 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Got this in College Park MD a short time ago. @CoastalWx can't get anything remotely close to this in Weymouth this year! Meh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 .42 in just about an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 56 minutes ago, vortex95 said: The "barrier" reigns supreme. I am not sure the global models always fully acknowledge this wind shear barrier, esp. in the longer range. Yes, they may fcst it to wane, but no reason to think it will given how strong El Nino is. Ya nothing is forming with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Last Sunday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Congrats CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Looks like central CT to maybe Bristol and Plymouth counties may line up for decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 2 minutes ago, JACKASS said: Last Sunday. Why aren’t you wearing a shirt there, and why does it look like you’re playing a guitar with that board? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why aren’t you wearing a shirt there, and why does it look like you’re playing a guitar with that board? Is he Jim Duggan? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 What a torch ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why aren’t you wearing a shirt there, and why does it look like you’re playing a guitar with that board? I’m behind the camera, genius. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a torch ! You live in Boston now?! Christ, you move almost daily!! 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 W/ the RRFS going operational in Oct, I asked about how it handles TCs. Got this reply:RRFS isn't specifically designed to handle hurricanes well, but the hourly data assimilation and the model dynamics (which handles rotational modes well) mean it should at least handle them okay. But I would certainly defer to HAFS forecasts for hurricanes. Important info given it is a new model. Just have to be careful here and see how it does overall and what its biases are. And this prevents more @CoastalWxfrom the "GARBAGE MODEL" label he likes so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Deluge going on here right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JACKASS Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 7 minutes ago, JACKASS said: You live in Boston now?! Christ, you move almost daily!! This you now? Cousin dit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 Did I miss something? What is Vortex’s fascination with tagging Coastal on everything? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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